Unseasonably Warm Week Ahead – and JASON Animation Re-Run

By: Steve Gregory , 7:54PM,GMT on October 31,2015

SATURDAY: 31-OCT-15 / 3:00 PM CDT

NEXT FULL WX UPDATE MONDAY

NOTE NEW POSTING SCHEDULE: ‘FULL’ UPDATES ON MONDAYS / FRIDAYS … TEMP FORECAST CHARTS ON WEDNESDAYS AND WHEN WARRANTED

A MIGHTY WARM WEEK AHEAD

A truly remarkable week of above normal Temps will dominate much of the nation east of the Rockies during Week 1, with below Temps developing in portions of the West. Temps are likely to average near to above normal across the eastern half of the nation during Week 2, with below normal Temps becoming more widespread in the West.

Wet WX in the east and PAC NW at the start of Week 1, with unsettled conditions continuing out west for much of the week. Another round of rain – potentially heavy – will likely develop again in Texas by the end of the week, spreading to the east coast NEXT weekend – with the global models calling for a fairly strong storm system to develop in the central US around mid-month.




Fig 1: Temperature ANOMALY forecast for Week 1 is based STRICTLY on the MOS data forecasts from the todays 12Z operational GFS model run with only minor adjustments towards the raw model data points for Days 6 and 8. MUCH above normal Temps are expected east of the Rockies during the upcoming week with Temps beginning to fall off by the end of the Week. Overall Confidence in the forecast anomaly Pattern and Magnitude is above average for this time of year, with a reading of ‘4’ on a Scale from 1 to 5.


Fig 2: The Week 2 Temperature ANOMALY forecast is based on the 12Z run of the GFS (90%) integrated with the 12Z GFS Ensemble (10%) using the projected pattern along with explicit surface and 850mb (~5,000 FT) Temp forecasts. Some Temps are adjusted for known or expected anomalous thermal patterns & projected storm system passages.The GFS forecasts have become more consistent between model runs, so overall Confidence in the anomaly Pattern and magnitude is about average for this time of year (which is not that high, however) with a reading of ‘3’ for the pattern and magnitude on a scale of 1 to 5.


Fig 3:Two (2) Year Sea Surface Height Anomalies from the JASON Satellite System A ‘radar’ type system on a NASA satellite measures ocean surface heights, and the above image shows the departure from normal heights. The 2-year ‘movie’ shows the evolution of El Niño, including the ‘false start’ in 2014, and then the development of our current, extremely strong El Niño. Since warmer water occupies greater volumes than cold water, higher than normal Sea Surface Heights (SSH) correlate with warmer than normal water – and colder waters with lower than normal SSH’s. Keep in mind that actual SST anomalies do not always correlate highly or ‘one-to-one’ with total heat content of the corresponding entire column of water represented by SSH.


NOTE: NEW POSTING SCHEDULE: ‘FULL’ UPDATES ON MONDAYS / FRIDAYS … TEMP FORECAST CHARTS ON WEDNESDAYS AND WHEN WARRANTED

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Steve