Tornado Watches Issued in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas as Tornado Outbreak Continues

November 17,2015

Tornado watches remain in effect for parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas as an outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms continues. The threat of severe storms will sweep into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states for Tuesday and Wednesday.
(MORE: Tornadoes Reported in Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska)
The severe storms, capable of producing damaging winds and large hail in addition to tornadoes, are developing on the warm side of Winter Storm Ajax, which will bring blizzard conditions to the High Plains.
(FORECAST: Winter Storm Ajax a High Plains Blizzard)
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following severe weather watches:

• A tornado watch is in effect until 3 a.m. CST for parts of west-central and north-central Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area.
• A tornado watch is is effect until 3 a.m. CST for portions of northwestern Texas, western and central Oklahoma and southwestern and central Kansas. This watch includes Oklahoma City.
• A tornado watch is in effect until 2 a.m. CST for parts of southwestern and west-central Texas, including the city of San Angelo.

Unlike most severe weather threats, this outbreak will continue well into the early morning hours of Tuesday as it sweeps east through parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. The storms will likely congeal into an extensive squall line during that time period with damaging wind gusts and possible embedded tornadoes. Make sure you have a way to get the latest warnings overnight should severe storms threaten your location.
Below are more forecast details for this multi-day severe weather threat.

Monday Night Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Wednesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our Latest Severe Threat Forecast

Monday night:

• Threat Areas: With a moist, southeast wind flow maintaining or even increasing instability overnight and strengthening winds in the lowest layers of the atmosphere, severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and tornadoes remain possible through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. These storms should merge into an intense squall line, which will track across north, central and eastern Texas, Oklahoma, central/eastern Kansas and possibly parts of western Arkansas, far northwest Louisiana and extreme southwest Missouri. A broad area of thunderstorms with heavy rain will flare up well to the east, from the Ozarks to the mid-Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley.
• Cities: Austin | Oklahoma City | Dallas - Fort Worth

Tuesday:

• Threat Areas: Severe thunderstorms will be ongoing in the morning, spreading from eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma and extreme southeast Kansas to southwest Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and eventually Mississippi. Although the most widespread threat will be damaging winds with a persistent squall line, tornadoes remain possible, especially with any storms that form well ahead of an advancing cold front.
• Cities: Houston | Jackson, Mississippi | Little Rock | Shreveport, Louisiana

Wednesday:

• Threat Areas: Any lingering severe threat will depend on how much instability remains with the system as it moves northeast. Right now, it appears that a few severe storms could fire from extreme southeast Louisiana and extreme southern Mississippi to southern Alabama, the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia.
• Cities: Albany, Georgia | Mobile, Alabama | Pensacola, Florida

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
In addition, the thunderstorms will produce torrential rainfall which will raise the risk of flash flooding from the southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley. The link below has more on that threat.
(MORE: Serious Flood Threat Ahead)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Storm Reports From Monday

As of 10 p.m. CST Monday, 19 possible tornadoes have been reported across Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma and Nebraska.
The possible tornadoes include one that was spotted near Grainfield, Kansas close to Interstate 70 around 5:30 p.m. CST which damaged roofs, broke windows, destroyed sheds and downed power lines and trees in the area.
A mile wide tornado was observed near Pampa, Texas Monday evening with major damage reported including gas leaks and downed power lines. A second large tornado moved through the Pampa area with damage reported as well. A Haliburton plant in Pampa was damaged creating chemical spills and gas leaks.
A wind gust of 75 mph was also measured north-northwest of Pampa and a gust of 71 mph was recorded at the Lubbock International Airport Monday night.
There have also been numerous reports of quarter to golfball size hail in western Kansas, according to the National Weather Service, including near Liberal. Golfball size hail was also measured in Tyrone, Oklahoma and near Wayside, Texas.
For more details on the tornadoes and severe weather reports click here.

Meteorology 101: What is Causing the Severe Weather?

The upcoming jet stream pattern is expected to be similar to last week's severe weather setup, although the focus this time is farther south, as a powerful southward dip in the jet stream intensifies over the Southwest, then pushes east into the Plains.

Current Conditions

Ahead of this bullish jet-stream dip, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the Plains, as surface low pressure develops east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream digs south and amplifies, strong wind fields will work into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup appears highly favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air should coincide with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this last Wednesday.
This system moved into the West on Sunday and producing an EF1 tornado Sunday afternoon with trees and power lines down, as well as damage to multiple structures near Denair and Turlock, California.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this last Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
In addition to the thunderstorm threat, due to the strong low-level wind fields expected with this system, damaging non-thunderstorm wind gusts may be possible across parts of the Plains, Midwest Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992