By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
November 15,2015; 8:55PM,EST
Warmth more typical of early October will return to the Eastern United States during the third week of November 2015.
According to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Ben Noll, "Another spell of above-average warmth is heading for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast."
Temperatures during the first 10 days of November averaged 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in much of the Central and Eastern states. During Nov. 5-7 alone, there were nearly 600 record highs tied or broken east of the Rockies.
"While record warmth is generally not expected, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for several days," said Noll.
Warmth Returns to Northeast
How warm the weather gets will depend on the amount of sunshine versus fog, low clouds and rain in some cases.
Where the sun is out for several hours, temperatures could reach into the upper 60s or close to 70 F in portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic on one or more days. Temperatures could reach 80 F over parts of the South and approach 90 F in parts of central and South Florida.
The warmth from earlier in November featured a dry flow of air from the Southwest much of the time.
During much of the third week of November, the flow of air will be from the South and Southeast on occasion, which tends to add moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
However, the surge of warmth will be put on hold early in the week for portions of the Northeast. A backdoor cold front will push cooler air into parts of the region, especially across New England Tuesday. This will keep highs from breaking out of the 50s in some locations.
Temperatures will likely recover on Wednesday and Thursday, though out ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. For those in the I-95 corridor and across New England, this will likely be the warmest days of the week.
Some cities in the I-95 corridor across the Northeast may flirt with 70 F on Thursday.
Even where and when temperatures fall short of record high levels, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures can be 5 to 10 degrees higher than the actual temperature.
"A cold front will pass through the East on Thursday, bringing gradually cooler air in time for next weekend," Noll noted.
There is the potential for this month to rank among the warmest Novembers on record in parts in the Eastern U.S. This can occur even though temperatures may take a substantial dip prior to Thanksgiving.
While many areas in the East will be warm with some sunshine, portions of the Central states may experience an extended bout of rainy and stormy conditions.
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"A slow-moving fire hose of rain and thunderstorms will take aim at portions of Texas and the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys," AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, when referring to the third week of November.
"The pattern could bring significant flooding to some areas that were hit hard earlier in the autumn," Pastelok warned.
While the overall headline for this week will be centered around above-average warmth, it is likely to be rewritten for the following week.
"The week of Thanksgiving looks substantially chillier for many, especially in the central states and into the Midwest," said Noll. "Some snow could even accompany the colder temperatures in those regions.
Derrick Cornell Cephas ·
A
back cold front this time of usually wins out even over the Washington
DC area, as it almost never dose what computer forecasting models say.
Kurt Stephenson
But ocean temp's are above normal, and the waters in fall are much warmer than in spring.
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
They mostly took away the warm temps here in New England for next week. Maybe near 60 later week.
Kurt Stephenson
Although with the above normal ocean temp's, the backdoor front may weaken.
Kurt Stephenson
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html
PDO weakening...warmth evenly distributed across east and central pacific... all Nino regions have strengthened over the past two weeks, 3.4 now approaching +3.0 C...not as much warming in 3, 3.4 is now higher than 3... the greatest warming in 4 and 1+2... warm water north of 1+2...east atlantic waters are warm...north atlantic cold...gulf warm.
PDO weakening...warmth evenly distributed across east and central pacific... all Nino regions have strengthened over the past two weeks, 3.4 now approaching +3.0 C...not as much warming in 3, 3.4 is now higher than 3... the greatest warming in 4 and 1+2... warm water north of 1+2...east atlantic waters are warm...north atlantic cold...gulf warm.
Kurt Stephenson
This Day In Weather History
New York & New England (1972)
"Storm brought record deep snows for so early in the season. Albany, NY got 17.3 inches, the earliest snowfall amounting to a foot or more. (Heaviest snowfall for the month was 21.8 inches on Thanksgiving Day, 1971). Vermont and New Hampshire received up to 15 inches."
It is interesting at how many events for "This Day In Weather History" for Oct. and Nov. have been in El nino years. There was a snowstorm in Oct. '91 I think, a lot of rain in Alaska in '97, '06 Buffalo snow, among other things. A lot of mild el nino winters have cold novembers, at least for part of it. Which makes me wonder why ppl who love cold weather are so pessimistic about this winter. Although warm air ramping up in the second half indicates a warmer winter, Feb. could well be cold and stormy.
New York & New England (1972)
"Storm brought record deep snows for so early in the season. Albany, NY got 17.3 inches, the earliest snowfall amounting to a foot or more. (Heaviest snowfall for the month was 21.8 inches on Thanksgiving Day, 1971). Vermont and New Hampshire received up to 15 inches."
It is interesting at how many events for "This Day In Weather History" for Oct. and Nov. have been in El nino years. There was a snowstorm in Oct. '91 I think, a lot of rain in Alaska in '97, '06 Buffalo snow, among other things. A lot of mild el nino winters have cold novembers, at least for part of it. Which makes me wonder why ppl who love cold weather are so pessimistic about this winter. Although warm air ramping up in the second half indicates a warmer winter, Feb. could well be cold and stormy.
Gregg Symonds ·
I
love that phrase ..how does that go ... "its not unusal for" ....yah
thats it. I know when things are unusal. Like ... I'm picking fresh
clover for my guinea pig ...and ... I'm north of Ottawa, Eastern Ont.
Canada !!!!!! Any previous year @ this date...the ground is frozen
and it sure is not green !!!!!!
Kurt Stephenson
"There is the potential for this month to rank among the warmest Novembers on record in parts in the Eastern U.S."
Gregg, October was normal. November has not been normal. A few warm days, like we had in oct., was not unusual, since there were cool days as well. But here in nov., it was warm, then mild, and now probably warm again. That is unusual.
As far as what is normal where you are, it depends on how far north you are from Ottawa.
Gregg, October was normal. November has not been normal. A few warm days, like we had in oct., was not unusual, since there were cool days as well. But here in nov., it was warm, then mild, and now probably warm again. That is unusual.
As far as what is normal where you are, it depends on how far north you are from Ottawa.
Gregg Symonds ·
Kurt
Stephenson 110km north of Ottawa at a military base. right on the
Ottawa River ... beautiful area with beautiful beaches. Its been
noteworthy since Sept. the warmth that is. I found Sept. crazy warm.
I spent that month at the beach. 19 days where the temp was above
normal and three of those days it exceeded 30C. Here it is Nov. 15th
and its still oddly mild. If and when winter does play out its gonna
seem ...hopefully ... short.
Scott Ufford Psychic-Philosopher ·
OWSCD = Overly-Warm Seasonal Confusion Disorder translates as:
"Let's go mow the snow."
"Let's go mow the snow."
Kurt Stephenson
LOL...although
Nov. doesn't usually have snow in NYC...more like, let's go mow the
leaves...which truthfullly, is a good idea...it cycles the nutrients
back into the soil...having a warm November and a cool march actually
makes mowing more efficient for me, because I mow the leaves in November
anyway...whereas with a cool nov. and warm march, I have to mow in both
months...
Debbie Brunell
so far this fall has been a ripoff! i hope WINTER lasts till JUNE!
Kurt Stephenson
October
had normal temperatures overall. A few more warm days than cool days,
but the cool days were extra cool...a lot of ppl don't realize how warm
October is on average...the avg. high in Boston is around 63 degrees.
Michael Carenza Jr. ·
I think I will be mowing the lawn untill New Years.....LOL
Aaron Ginther ·
Mowing the lawn, getting bit by mosquitoes, running your ac.. you know, just a typical December day.
Grant McGuire ·
You'd
think that after recent years of extreme cold, people would embrace the
warmth, but Northeast is a strange place with stranger people
Scott W Avery ·
Strange really !!!!! I welcome the warm weather. And am a Mainer !!!
Larry Glick ·
Wec
Rnt Strange-We Get 4 Seasons-Used to Before F'n Glob Warmingf- Now
Longer Sunnier Drier Summers Lasting way too Long Into OCT. No change of
Clothes Still No Heavy JKTS- No Sweaters- And its Not Right- I am and
alot r Winter-Cold Snow Lovers- If I wanted 60s In NOV and had a Week
Rec Setter 70s -I'd Live In SOUTH- We Get COLD and even SNOW after DEC.
Usually- This SUX Borin g too For us Cold Storm Snow Lovers and Now an 8
in. RAIN DEFICIT-U think Thats something To EMBRACE- U r Strange Not ME
George Greene ·
Works at TopShelf Oldies
Right, Grant, I embrace every one of these warmer days we get. Warm weather is to savor.....cold weather is to endure
Cory Morrison ·
Larry
Glick you are obviously trolling since you seem 10 times more of a
bright person on your Facebook page than you are on here.
Cory Morrison ·
Larry
Glick having constant rain/snow and abnormally cold/grey/windy weather
to me is not something to embrace. Warm weather and sunshine inspires
people to go outside and do things, while people often change
plans/cancel things due to inclement weather.
Grant McGuire ·
Larry Glick Yeah whatever. This is all but certian to be the warmest winter since 11-12 smile emoticon
Aaron Ginther ·
Grant McGuire
I don't know about all of that. 12-13 was a mild winter, despite having
a cold February-March. Either way, the winter will likely be the
mildest one we've had in 3 years. Considering 2013-14 and 2014-14 were
so cold, that's a low standard to beat anyway. A more typical winter
should feel quite nice.
Cory Morrison ·
Aaron Ginther
my best bet is a mild December similar to last year, not necessarily
extremely mild. For January, a normal to somewhat cold one but the
mildest since 2013. For February, another cold one but milder than the
last 2 years. I think March could potentially be the mildest since 2012
for some East locations, but that would be a somewhat low bar to clear.
Cory Morrison ·
Grant McGuire yes November 2012 and March 2013 being cold may have made that winter seem long.
Grant McGuire ·
Cory, exactly.
Shorts weather is coming back
Hmmm...it
depends on the fog and cloud cover...they updated the story I
think...there will be a backdoor front in the northeast as well...so it
all depends...NYC might not go above 65...not really shorts weather,
unless you wear shorts in those temp.'s.
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