Surge of Warmth to Eradicate Fall's Chill in Northeast, Great Lakes

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

November 14,2015; 11:46PM,EST

 

 

Warmth more typical of early October will return to the Eastern United States during the third week of November 2015.
According to AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Ben Noll, "Another spell of above-average warmth is heading for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast."
Temperatures during the first 10 days of November averaged 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in much of the Central and Eastern states. During Nov. 5-7 alone, there were nearly 600 record highs tied or broken east of the Rockies.
"While record warmth is generally not expected, temperatures will be 5 to 15 degrees above normal for several days," said Noll.

Brief Shot of Cold for the Northeast

An atmospheric traffic jam will set up across the nation, which will bring the typical west-to-east motion of weather systems to a crawl. A large area of high pressure will develop and strengthen along the Atlantic Seaboard and will pump warm air northward.
How warm the weather gets will depend on the amount of sunshine versus fog, low clouds and rain in some cases.
Where the sun is out for several hours, temperatures could reach into the upper 60s or close to 70 F in portions of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and mid-Atlantic on one or more days. Temperatures could reach 80 F over parts of the South and approach 90 F in parts of central and South Florida.

The warmth from earlier in November featured a dry flow of air from the Southwest much of the time.
During much of the third week of November, the flow of air will be from the South and Southeast on occasion, which tends to add moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean.
However, the surge of warmth may be put on hold early in the week for the Northeast. A backdoor cold front will push cooler air into parts of the region, especially across New England Tuesday. This will keep highs from breaking out of the 50s in some locations.
Temperatures will likely recover on Wednesday and Thursday, though out ahead of an approaching cold front from the west. For those in the I-95 corridor and across New England, this will likely be the warmest days of the week.

Even where and when temperatures fall short of record high levels, AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures can be 5 to 10 degrees higher than the actual temperature.
"A cold front will pass through the East on Thursday, bringing gradually cooler air in time for next weekend," Noll noted.
There is the potential for this month to rank among the warmest Novembers on record in parts in the Eastern U.S. This can occur even though temperatures may take a substantial dip prior to Thanksgiving.
While many areas in the East will be warm with some sunshine, portions of the Central states may experience an extended bout of rainy and stormy conditions.
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"A slow-moving fire hose of rain and thunderstorms will take aim at portions of Texas and the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys," AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said, when referring to the third week of November.
"The pattern could bring significant flooding to some areas that were hit hard earlier in the autumn," Pastelok warned.
While the overall headline for this week will be centered around above-average warmth, it is likely to be rewritten for the following week.
"The week of Thanksgiving looks substantially chillier for many, especially in the central states and into the Midwest," said Noll. "Some snow could even accompany the colder temperatures in those regions.