Severe Storms to Threaten Damaging Winds, Flooding From Texas to Missouri

By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist

November 16,2015; 11:40PM,EST

 

 

A powerful storm system will bring the risk for severe thunderstorms and flooding from the southern Plains to the Mississippi Valley into Wednesday.
The storms will bring a risk to lives and property and cause travel delays over the Central states.

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A tornado risk will extend beyond the daylight hours, which will add to the danger.
"A strong storm system will swing across the Plains and will provide the right ingredients for severe thunderstorms to begin to fire from Texas to Kansas early this week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Becky Elliott said.
Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi and Tennessee are at risk for severe thunderstorms into Tuesday.
Anyone living in or traveling through these states early this week should be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions.
The first storms are forecast to erupt across western Kansas, western Oklahoma and West Texas on Monday afternoon.

"When these storms initially develop, there will be a brief window for a few tornadoes to form," Elliott said.
Locations at risk for severe thunderstorms and a tornado into Monday evening include Dodge City and Liberal, Kansas; Guymon and Woodward, Oklahoma; and Amarillo, Lubbock and Odessa, Texas.

"The storms will then merge into a squall line, with damaging winds being the main threat during Monday night," Elliot said.
A squall line is a fairly continuous line of thunderstorms that is notorious for bringing high wind gusts and torrential downpours. These lines of storms can reach hundreds of miles long and can move along a path for a thousand miles.
There may be enough spin in the atmosphere for a few storms embedded within the squall line to produce brief tornadoes.
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Gusts from the strongest storms can cause property damage, knock over trees and snap power poles.
During Monday night, a squall line will track eastward from Kansas through central Texas. Storms will roll through Wichita, Kansas; Tulsa and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma; and Abilene, Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, Texas.
Those traveling along Interstate 35 from Wichita, Kansas, to San Antonio, Texas, should be prepared for blinding downpours and strong winds on Monday night.
By Tuesday, the squall line will pass through the eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma, southern Missouri, Arkansas, western Tennessee, northern and western Louisiana and western Mississippi.
Cities at risk on Tuesday include Hugo, Oklahoma; College Station and Houston, Texas; Springfield, Missouri; Little Rock and Fayetteville, Arkansas; Memphis, Tennessee; Clarksdale and Greenville, Mississippi; and Shreveport and Alexandria, Louisiana.
Outside of any severe thunderstorm, very heavy rain will fall in a short period of time and can lead to widespread flooding.
Up to 6 inches of rain could fall in some locations centered on the Mississippi Valley from Missouri and Illinois to Louisiana and Mississippi.

Flooding may not be limited to urban areas. Small streams can spill out of their banks very quickly. Significant rises can occur on the tributaries to the major rivers with a risk of flooding unprotected areas.
Never drive through a flooded roadway. Only a small amount of water can wash vehicles off the road.
Rounds of heavy rain in recent weeks have reduced the abnormally dry and drought conditions over the South Central states.
The soil is very damp to saturated in many locations. Only a brief heavy downpour could lead to flooding.
Despite the rainfall, some areas in Oklahoma and Arkansas remain abnormally dry according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
Use AccuWeather Minutecast® to track the severe thunderstorms across your area. Mobile users can use their GPS location.
The threat for severe weather and widespread flooding will begin to diminish as the squall line reaches the central Gulf Coast and crosses the Mississippi River later on Wednesday. Storms will still contain gusty winds and heavy rain at the local level in the Ohio and Tennessee valleys as well as the central Gulf Coast states.
On Thursday, drenching rain and thunderstorms will reach the Interstate-95 corridor, where localized flooding and travel disruptions are likely.
The storm system responsible for the severe weather will spread snow across the Rockies and High Plains Monday and Tuesday.
Content contributed by AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.