Potential Severe Weather Outbreak in the South Early Next Week

November 12,2015

On the heels of a classic November storm that caused damaging storms across the Midwest earlier this week, a round of potentially more significant severe weather is targeting much of the South early next week.
While this possible severe weather outbreak is still several days out, confidence is increasing that a potent storm system will take shape over the south-central portion of the country early in the coming week.

Severe Weather Setup

The upcoming jet stream pattern is expected to be similar to the recent severe weather setup, although the focus this time is further south, as the upper level jet digs from the Southwest into the southern Plains.
Ahead of an upper level low, warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico will be transported into the Plains, as low pressure develops east of the southern Rockies.
As the jet stream digs south and amplifies, strong wind fields will work into an environment characterized by warm, unstable air in the low levels of the atmosphere and colder air working in from the northwest, aloft. The setup appears highly favorable the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.
Given the proximity of this system to the Gulf of Mexico, a sizable area of warm and humid (unstable) air should coincide with impressive wind shear to cause a more widespread area of severe thunderstorms than the Midwest saw this past Wednesday.

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Tuesday's Thunderstorm Forecast

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Our Latest Thinking

• Sunday night: As the storm system begins to organize, scattered thunderstorms may develop across western Texas. Instability, at this point, should remain limited, so thunderstorms will probably stay below severe limits.
   
• Monday: With low pressure developing, severe thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop across central to eastern Texas with a few tornadoes possible. Overnight, with an unstable environment in place further east, severe thunderstorms remain possible from eastern Texas toward the Arklatex region.
   
• Tuesday: The storm system really ramps up early in the day, with severe thunderstorms possible from eastern Texas to Arkansas, Louisiana and eventually Mississippi. Although thunderstorms may quickly consolidate into a squall line with damaging winds, tornadoes still remain possible, particularly with any storms that form well ahead of an advancing cold front.
   
• Wednesday: Any lingering severe threat will depend on how much instability remains with the system, but a downward trend in intensity is expected. A few strong to severe storms could fire along the central Gulf Coast and into the Florida panhandle.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
Severe thunderstorm outbreaks, like what occurred this past Wednesday, are not uncommon in November. If anything, this upcoming event targets an area that is climatologically favored for the threat of severe weather in November, particularly the Lower Mississippi Valley and Deep South.
(MORE: Where November Tornadoes Are Most Common)
Flash flooding is another concern with this storm system, particularly over portions of Texas and Louisiana, where recent weeks have featured multiple heavy rain events.
This outlook is subject to change in the days ahead. Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this potential severe weather event.
(MAPS: 7-Day National Rain Forecast)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

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MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992