Limited Severe Weather Threat Thanksgiving Week (FORECAST)

November 23,2015

The threat of severe thunderstorms will remain low through Thanksgiving week as a cool and stable environment has overspread much of the country behind Winter Storm Bella.
(MORE: Winter Storm Bella Slams Midwest)
However, heavy rain and the risk of flooding may increase late this week as the next storm system moves eastward across the U.S. There will be abundant moisture with this low pressure system from both the Gulf of Mexico and tropical moisture from the Pacific.
(MORE: Next Winter Storm Blasts First Arctic Air of the Season into West, Plains)

Thunderstorm Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

Tuesday through Wednesday

• No organized severe thunderstorm activity is expected as a relatively stable environment is forecast across the country.
• A few thunderstorms, likely non-severe, may develop across portions of the southern Plains on Wednesday night.

Thanksgiving Day (Thursday)

• A few isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across portions of southwest Oklahoma and west and north-central Texas.
• The severe threat will depend on the evolution of a storm system across the Plains and how much instability develops ahead of its cold front. At this time, it does not appear that the atmosphere will become unstable enough to support anything more than spotty severe weather within a larger zone of showers and thunderstorms.
• However, heavy rainfall may bring the risk of flash flooding from northwestern Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Michigan.

Friday

• Thunderstorms are expected in southern and eastern Texas but severe thunderstorms seem unlikely.
• The chance for locally heavy rain and flooding will stretch from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley and into the eastern Great Lakes.
• The flood risk will be enhanced from Iowa to southern Michigan due to the combination of heavy rain and melting snow.

Saturday and Sunday

• Scattered thunderstorms are possible in southern Texas on Saturday but the severe weather threat will be minimal.
• Rainfall will continue in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee through the weekend which will lead to the risk of flooding persisting across the region.

For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Snapped an Awesome Shot? Share Your Photo!

If you crave pictures of severe weather, you've found your home here. Upload your photos or video (taking care to only take photos and videos from a safe location) and share your experience!
(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)
MORE: Fall Tornado Outbreak of Nov. 21-23, 1992