First Snow of the Season Friday-Saturday in Parts of the Midwest, Including Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee

Jon Erdman
Published: November 18,2015
The first accumulating snow of the season for some in the Upper Midwest, Corn Belt, and Great Lakes is likely to put an exclamation mark on a week of change in the weather pattern.
No, this is not Winter Storm Ajax, whose snow has wound down early Wednesday.
However, the low-pressure system from Ajax will merge with a powerful jet-stream disturbance responsible for a major Northwest/northern Rockies windstorm to usher in more typically cold mid-late November air into the northern half of the nation through Thursday.
(FORECAST: Cold Returning)
With the cold air in place, another jet-stream level disturbance will intensify as it sweeps eastward over the boundary of this cold air from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and eastern Canada Friday into the weekend.
Moisture will be much more limited with this system than with Winter Storm Ajax, as well as the severe weather and flooding rain plaguing the Plains and south.
However, the strength of the jet-stream disturbance, forcing a wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary, then strengthening it over the Great Lakes, will squeeze out a swath of snow Friday into the weekend from the Plains to the Great Lakes and northern New England.

Snowy Forecast

Potential Snow Outlook

The relative lack of moisture and quick-moving nature of this system should mitigate this from becoming a widespread heavy snowstorm for many.

Winter Weather Alerts

Generally, light to moderate snow accumulations are expected from the northern High Plains into the Corn Belt of Nebraska and western Iowa. Some areas may see as much as 6 inches of snow, prompting the National Weather Service to issue winter storm watches for portions of the area.
Surface low pressure is expected to strengthen once it reaches the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, thanks to the intensifying jet stream disturbance.
With some added moisture as winds flow over southern Lake Michigan, some locally heavy snow amounts (6 inches or more) are possible from northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin into parts of Michigan and possibly northern Indiana.
Once the surface low wraps up in eastern Canada, some bands of lake-effect snow are possible off Lakes Ontario and Erie, and wrap-around snow may blanket the Allegheny Plateau, Appalachians, Adirondacks and high country of northern New England.
(MORE: Average First Snow Dates | Snow & El Niño)

Snow Timing

Friday

Friday's Forecast

Light snow will spread out of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains into the Missouri Valley during the day, then into the Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes (southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois) Friday night.
Season's first accumulating snow cities:

• Friday: Omaha, Des Moines
• Friday night: Chicago, Milwaukee

Saturday

Saturday's Forecast

Snow continues in northern Illinois and southern to eastern Wisconsin, later spreading into much of Michigan and northern Indiana.
Any rain may change to snow in northern Ohio, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York Saturday night.
Increasing winds Saturday night may produce areas of reduced visibility in Michigan, and all the Great Lake snowbelts with the exception of the Lake Ontario snowbelt.
Season's first accumulating snow cities:

• Saturday: Chicago, Grand Rapids, South Bend, Detroit
• Saturday night: Erie, Pennsylvania

Sunday

Sunday's Forecast

Lake-effect snow will linger in the Great Lakes snowbelts, possibly heavy south of Buffalo, New York, and north of Syracuse toward Oswego, New York, and the Tug Hill Plateau.
A brief round of snow is also possible in the mountains of northern New England before ending.
Gusty winds may persist around the eastern Great Lakes and New England.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
This winter weather event is still evolving so check back for updates and for the latest forecast.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Twitter and Google Plus. 
MORE: Winter Storm Ajax (PHOTOS)