Chilly Air Returns to Northern States Late This Week

November 16,2015
The temperature roller coaster continues as early week warmth across much of the northern states gives way to a blast of chilly air toward the middle and end of this week.

Cold air is expected to return to much of the country in the wake of a storm system later this upcoming week.

The Upper Midwest, northern Plains and northern Rockies have enjoyed relatively warm temperatures over the past couple of days, following highs on Saturday and Sunday that ranged from 10 to 20 degrees above average across the region.
On Saturday, Mobridge, South Dakota reached 70 degrees, setting a new record high for the date. Nearby Aberdeen's high of 68 degrees on Saturday was 28 degrees of average, but only high enough to tie their daily record high. On Sunday, Grand Forks, North Dakota set a daily record high of 60 degrees.
The warmth continues through midweek in the Midwest, Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast ahead of a storm system moving into the central states. That storm system will bring severe thunderstorms, heavy rain and possible flooding to the Plains, Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states through Wednesday.
(MORE: Severe Weather Forecast | Flood Potential)

Forecast Highs

As the storm system pivots from the Midwest into Canada it will combine with another area of low pressure sweeping east through the Canadian prairies. Increasing northwest flow on the backside of the storm will drive cold air southward from Canada into the U.S.

The first wave of cooling should come in the form of a gradual fall in temperatures from

















Wednesday through Friday across the north-central states. Into the weekend, more cold air could potentially crash further south across parts of the Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes.
(FORECAST: Billings | Minneapolis | Sioux Falls)
The 6 to 10 day temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center also indicates that the best chance for colder than average temperatures will be found from the Northwest through the Plains and into portions of the Midwest and South.
Places that saw temperatures 20 degrees or more above average this weekend will move back to near average by late-week. For some areas, especially next weekend, temperatures may even tumble below average.
This means that widespread highs in the 50s and 60s the past few days will give way to many locales only reaching daytime highs in the 30s by the end of the new week. For example, highs in the middle to upper 50s early this week in Chicago will be replaced with highs either side of 40 degrees by this weekend.
These colder temperatures could allow for new snow to fall across parts of the region.

Will Cold Weather Stick Around?

Typical jet-stream pattern, temperature and precipitation departures from average from late fall (Nov.) through winter (Mar.) during a moderate to strong El Niño in the U.S.

Even though the calendar is getting deeper into November, the cold air may be far from permanent.
Amidst the strongest El Niño in 18 years, the overall pattern favors warmer than average temperatures across the northern third of the country as we move into winter.
(MORE: November El Niño Update)
Since El Niño is forecast to get stronger in the coming weeks before likely weakening next spring, the upcoming cool-down may not necessarily be a sign of what's to come this winter.
(MORE: 5 Things to Expect This Winter)
As always, check back with weather.com regularly for the most updated forecast.
MORE: Winter in Every State