Typhoon Halola Moving Toward Japan This Weekend (FORECAST)

Nick Wiltgen
Published: July 22,2015
Typhoon Halola is churning through the western North Pacific on a track that could take it near parts of Japan this weekend. In an ironic twist, the typhoon may actually improve the weather over parts of that country.
That's because the last few days have been extremely rainy in western parts of the mainland as well as the Ryukyu island chain, which includes Okinawa, south of the mainland. A persistent fetch of moisture-laden southwesterly winds, unrelated to the typhoon, has dumped torrential rainfall on those areas over the past couple of days.

Typhoon Halola: Current Status and Infrared Satellite

The Japan Meteorological Agency says more than 600 millimeters (24 inches) of rain fell in 48 hours Monday and Tuesday on Nakanoshima, a small volcanic island in that chain. As of 11:20 p.m. Japan Standard Time (JST) Wednesday, the village of Sata near the southern tip of Kyushu (the southwesternmost of the mainland's four large islands) had tallied 545.5 millimeters (21.48 inches) of rain in 72 hours, with rain falling at a ferocious rate of 85 millimeters (3.35 inches) per hour.
Interestingly, as Halola moves west-northwest late this week, its wind circulation will disrupt that fetch of soggy air. Halola remains surrounded by relatively dry air on all sides, and as Halola moves closer to Japan, that drier air will cut off the extreme rainfall across southwestern Japan.

Halola Forecast

The center of Halola is forecast to pass near or over parts of the Ryukyu island chain, possibly including Okinawa, late Friday into Saturday. Halola is expected to be a Category 1 or Category 2 equivalent typhoon as it makes its closest approach, according to the forecast issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Thursday morning, Japanese time.
Eventually, Halola is forecast to curve north and move near or west of the Japanese mainland later in the weekend, potentially passing close to the coast of South Korea. As most typhoons do, it has very moist tropical air at its core – but that core is not very large compared to the area of dry air surrounding it, and Halola is expected to move along at a steady clip.
Halola is also expected to succumb to some wind shear – typical for tropical cyclones moving northward near mainland Japan – leading to some weakening.
All told, the large-scale impacts of Halola may end up being rather insignificant compared to the weather pattern it's replacing. Japan is well prepared for strong winds from tropical cyclones, especially those below typhoon strength – and Halola's rains are likely to pale in comparison to this week's rains or those from last week's Typhoon Nangka. The greatest potential for strong and possibly damaging winds from Halola will be in a small part of the Ryukyu island chain as the center pass through.

Rainfall Forecast

While we never want to write off a typhoon as harmless, it's entirely plausible that Halola could end up being a bizarre case of a tropical cyclone making the weather better for some people rather than worse.
Stay with The Weather Channel, weather.com and Weather Underground as we continue to follow Typhoon Halola.
Meteorologist Chris Dolce contributed to this report.
MORE: Typhoon Nangka, July 16-17, 2015