Tropical Storm Dolores: Moisture Surge for Desert Southwest (FORECAST)

July 18,2015

Highlights

• Tropical Storm Dolores is currently located about 380 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico, and is gradually moving toward the northwest.
• Dolores has weakened to a tropical storm, and is expected to weaken into a remnant low on Sunday.
• Dolores is expected move northwest Saturday and then more toward the north Sunday and Monday.
• High surf and rip currents can be expected along the west coast of Baja California, as well as the coast of southern California.
• A moisture surge triggered by Dolores may bring a threat of locally heavy rain threat for parts of the Desert Southwest this weekend and into early next week.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)

The Latest Status, Forecast Path and Infrared Satellite Maps

Latest Status

Projected Path

Enhanced Satellite

While Tropical Storm Dolores is expected to remain off the Mexican Pacific coast, including the Baja California peninsula, there will still be some peripheral impacts, even for parts of the U.S.
The remaining impact along the Mexican coast will be high surf and dangerous rip currents. According to Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN), waves of 3 to 10 feet (1 to 3 meters) are expected along the Baja California Pacific coast and the coast of Sinaloa state.
Dolores is moving into an environment of more stable air and cooler water. Thus, weakening will occur through the weekend into early next week well west of the Baja peninsula.

Southwest Moisture Surge

However, Dolores' path west of Baja California will send a surge of deep tropical moisture up the Gulf of California into parts of the Desert Southwest through the weekend.
This will enhance the threat of thunderstorms from the Four Corners into the Desert Southwest, including parts of New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, western Colorado, Nevada and mainly the mountains and deserts of Southern California. A few thunderstorms are even possible at the beaches of southern California this weekend.
(FORECAST: Phoenix | Tucson | Las Vegas)
Slow-moving thunderstorms may trigger significant local flash flooding in these areas through at least the weekend, thanks to this moisture surge.
Dolores will also send swells northward to the beaches of Southern California into early next week. Surf is expected to build up to 7 feet and south-facing beaches will see the highest surf. Dangerous rip currents are also likely.

Storm History

Dolores formed as a tropical depression on Saturday morning, July 11. It became a tropical storm early July 12 and a hurricane July 13. Dolores rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane overnight Tuesday night, July 14.
Sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 114 mph were measured by automated equipment on Socorro Island, a small volcanic island under Mexican jurisdiction late Wednesday night, July 15, as the eye of Dolores passed nearby.
MORE: Hurricane Strikes (PHOTOS)