India Flooding This Week, Rain to Dwindle in August

By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist

July 26,2015; 9:12PM,EDT

 

 

Monsoon rain has kicked up again across India and finally reached southeastern Pakistan, but a drier weather pattern will resume in August.
After lessening in earlier July, monsoonal rain and thunderstorms have returned in full swing throughout India and will continue to frequent the nation daily through the end of the month.
"The wet pattern may even spill into the first full week of August," stated AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls.
AccuWeather Meteorologists are currently tracking two monsoonal lows around India, leading to flooding rainfall around each low. Away for these lows, lighter and occasional rainfall is expected.

The first low in northwest India and southeastern Pakistan will bring heavy rainfall through the first half of the week. Meanwhile, the second low will bring heavy rainfall to northeast India, Bangladesh and Myanmar much of the week.
If this second low sits across the Bay of Bengal long enough, there is some concern that this will develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week before moving inland across Odisha and West Bengal. Regardless, this will bring a significant flooding threat to the region.
The low in northwest India will bring rain to southeastern Pakistan, potentially supplying Karachi with more rainfall.
Karachi had a huge surplus rain on Thursday, bringing a total of 56 mm (2.2 inches). Although not a number many locations would consider catastrophic, this rainfall total is almost more than all of the rain Karachi received in all of 2013 and 2014 combined. The periods of heavy rain brought both power outages and major travel problems with flooding roads, according to The Siasat Daily.
"Monsoonal moisture plays a big role in crop farming across the country and the economy highly depends on it," stated AccuWeather Meteorologist Jordan Root. "While the rain is welcome, too much can cause crop damage and create flooding. On the other end, too little will induce drought which can devastate crops and drinking supplies."
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"The potential exists for localized areas to pick up 250 mm (10 inches) of rain in a day or two," added AccuWeather Meteorologist Rob Richards in regards to the heaviest downpours the tropical lows may unleash.
"New Delhi will receive some rain through the start of August, but the heaviest rain will remain to the south," continued Nicholls.
Toward the end of the first full week in August, Nicholls expects the monsoon to quiet down across India and stay quiet, leading to August being drier than normal. The pulse of instability that is helping to reactivate the monsoon will depart, resulting in less rain and thunderstorms.

Weather Outlook Across Asia

"All monsoons have these breaks and active periods," stated Nicholls. "However, during most El Nino years [as what this year is], the drier breaks tend to be longer and lead to drier-than-normal conditions."
As the monsoonal rain and thunderstorms lessen, heat can build and put the region further at risk for drought.