By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
July 8,2015; 9:12PM,EDT
It has rained on the majority of days since early June in many parts of the Midwest and the mid-Atlantic states. Is there any sign of the rainy weather taking a break?
No long-lasting relief is likely from the parade of showers and thunderstorms stretching across part of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic through much of July.
Splash and Dash Showers in New England
"More often than not downpours will continue to favor the Ohio Valley and lower mid-Atlantic," Pastelok said. "The area from Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, part of Virginia, western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania will be in the zone of the most frequent rains."
Other frequent problem areas will be in parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and northeastern Missouri.
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Much of the ground from the central and northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and part of the mid-Atlantic has become saturated or very damp at the least. Rivers and streams are running higher than average for July in this swath. In some cases, such as the Central states, rivers are still above flood stage and small streams may rise out of their banks from little additional rainfall.
Meanwhile, homeowners and landscaping crews may struggle to find time to cut grass during the wet pattern.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister, "When you see a break coming your way on AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Your Location or the AccuWeather radar, you better take advantage of it."
The frequent rounds of rain have been a deterrent for outdoor activities such as golf, sports practice, ballgames and amusement parks. Meanwhile, places such as movie theaters and malls may be getting a boost from the rainy weather.
It has rained on the majority of days since early June in many parts of the Midwest and the mid-Atlantic states. Is there any sign of the rainy weather taking a break?
No long-lasting relief is likely from the parade of showers and thunderstorms stretching across part of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic through much of July.
Splash and Dash Showers in New England
"More often than not downpours will continue to favor the Ohio Valley and lower mid-Atlantic," Pastelok said. "The area from Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, part of Virginia, western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania will be in the zone of the most frequent rains."
Other frequent problem areas will be in parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and northeastern Missouri.
RELATED:
Northeast Interactive Radar
AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Your Location
Is a Car Really a Safe Place to Be When Lightning Strikes?
Much of the ground from the central and northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and part of the mid-Atlantic has become saturated or very damp at the least. Rivers and streams are running higher than average for July in this swath. In some cases, such as the Central states, rivers are still above flood stage and small streams may rise out of their banks from little additional rainfall.
Meanwhile, homeowners and landscaping crews may struggle to find time to cut grass during the wet pattern.
According to AccuWeather Meteorologist Eric Leister, "When you see a break coming your way on AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Your Location or the AccuWeather radar, you better take advantage of it."
The frequent rounds of rain have been a deterrent for outdoor activities such as golf, sports practice, ballgames and amusement parks. Meanwhile, places such as movie theaters and malls may be getting a boost from the rainy weather.
- Stefan Floyd · Carpentry at Job CorpsOk everyone here we go temperatures in the northeast for the rest of the summer I expect to run from 2 to 3 degrees below monthly averages, the Midwest is expected to bump the heat up a bit 3 to 4 degrees above June and half of July , southeast has risks of tropical system developing in the gulf of mexico but that's a 45% chance of that happening in mid to near the end of July, rain will be more scattered than concentrated over the central states but watch out for slow moving storms, FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE, VERY SATURATED GROUND CAN'T ABSORB THE RAIN. The northwest will see a cool down a bit near the end of July through mid august, meaning right around average 70's , 80's maybe some 60's. The southeast will continue to bake triple digits, Florida I think more scattered thunderstorms is possible through the end of July into August. The southeast is going to be pretty hot though some upper 90's to triple digit heat might sneak in around the middle to end of July before it cools off near the beginning of August. This is what I think.
Brent Richardson · Top Commenter · Rochester, New YorkAnyone know if we will have brutal winter this year in Northeast? I'm hoping see worse than 2014 and 2013. TWO more months till fall comes in :)
Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversitySo much for the Northeast seeing a hot & dry summer, as forecast by Accuweather. I doubt we'll even reach 90 again.
Al Faist · Same as HometownTime to Start Building a East to West / North to South Water Way System... This will provide water from hard hit Rain area's to drought hit areas through out the year... If we can put man on the moon and send spacecraft to deep space..we can do this too! If California can build Billion Dollar Desalination plants... Why can we use this money to create Jobs all through out the country!
Jeff S Alterman · Top Commenter · Hastings High SchoolOne should not discount the fact that there can be a hot day or two in the midwest. The jetstream can change its position and allow for more heat from time to time. The difference is that there isn't ecpected to be lasting heat.
- Jeff S Alterman · Top Commenter · Hastings High SchoolCory Morrison:
The weather pattern might favor the middle of the Continental United States experiencing the greatest departure from the average temperatures (below normal). You might have temperatures closer to average for the month of July than you did last year. - Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.I sure hope so. So far, this July has been similar to last July where I am, but the extended forecasts (Not including Accuwx's 45 day forecast since I don't take it seriously) seem to be showing 80s more often than much of last July. My guess at this point is that this July in my location might be no colder than July 2014 but no warmer than July 1997 (Which was slightly cooler than average where I am).
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.I do not want the stormy pattern to return to Ontario. Temp-wise, I would like to at least have a seasonal pattern (Last few days have actually been rather nice for this).
- Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State University
Liz Kowalsky · Follow · Top Commenter · 144 followersGood. less people cutting grass the better for allergies.
Maria AndrewsIt's been a refreshingly cool summer so far in central NH. No need for AC until 2 days ago.
Bryce Walat · Senior Digital Writer at HighmarkI hope that the silver lining in all this cursed rain is that the Corn Belt's drought is over and that translates into lower prices for beef and milk, among other things.
Cottone Mathere · Top CommenterAccuwx needs to fix their twitter headline: "Frequent storms will dampen parts of the Midwest & mid-Atlantic states later this month." It is as though they are saying it is going to be dry for a while, but then that wet weather will come back in a couple of weeks. Again, as many of us have said before, meteorology does no good if it is not couple with good communication skills.- Cottone Mathere · Top CommenterLOL...they make it seem like it is raining most of the time: "When you see a break coming your way on AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Your Location or the AccuWeather radar, you better take advantage of it." It isn't raining THAT often. The main problem is that it tends to rain more in the evenings, when ppl are off of work, and that grass needs time to dry before it can be cut. They have to drum up everything, and ironically, their summer forecast indicated a very different pattern. Which we all were skeptical of.
Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityI dont want humidity clouds and rain every day, i also do not want cold July, but if this is true we will have both cold July and rain ever day. Can i say 1992?...
Aaron Ginther · Top Commenter · Central Virginia Community CollegeI'd take cool and dry in a heart beat rather than have it rain day after day after day. This is the first sunny day we've had since the end of June. All of these fronts have kept getting stuck right over us and have been unable to move. We just can't seem to get a break around here.- Cottone Mathere · Top Commenter
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityYeah, but we all know how these forecasts have been incorrect and frequent storms only 50 miles south of me is way too close to comfort, so we can expect at least lot of clouds and probably cold drizzle being north of the front. Looks like we will share the same faith as NYC if this map works out.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.It has been rather sunny this month in the GTA, but it has not fully been the same as a legit nice sunny month because the skies have been rather greyish due to the smoke farther west (Instead of the blue skies that we typically enjoy with sunny days).
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversitySame here Corry it was sunny and dry so far in July until late yesterday when the storms rain and clouds returned and droped us from 85F to 65F in the evening. I do want rain about 1 -2 times a week to keep things growing, but it looks like we are entering same pattern we had in June with lot of clouds and probably some rain most days according to the pretty much every forecast I saw for the next 10 days.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.Where I am, it probably won't rain again until Sunday when we get into the mid 80s, with possibly another thunderstorm along a cold front.
Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPATwo words. This stinks. I am guessing this is due to cold fronts stalling out near the Mason Dixon Line. So 150 Miles south it will be hot and 150 miles north/west of me there will be lower humidity and sunshine. Last year Cold Fronts blasted through here and we were left with sunny days temps slightly below normal with low humidity. This year we will have clouds, humidity and frequent opportunities for storms. The pattern we are in now is not what the experts were forecasting even 3 weeks ago for my area. I think they expected the SE Ridge to push the trough farther west now they aren't sure and forecasts change from day to day. Frustrating. Granted temp is only 84 degrees but with a dew point near 70 it feels almost tropical. And the long range forecasters are unsure how long this pattern persists (The battle between the SE Ridge which will bake the Southeast and the Trough over the Ohio Valley which will bring sunny/cool weather to the Mississippi/Ohio Valley the next week. I still think eventually the SE Ridge will win since we are approaching the meteorological hottest time of the year. But the soil moisture is very moist now and that means lower temps and more moisture in the air which means humidity.- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAPaul's forecast of more 90 degree days in the areas like Philly and NYC is likely to fall short. I can't see alot of 90 degree heat in this pattern as long as the SE Ridge and the Ohio Valley trough hold their ground. Unless this pattern breaks after July 20th its hard to imagine the Philly area seeing normal temps this July which was once again NOT foretasted by Accu Weather. If that happens and July does end up below normal temperature wise then my local guys will also have missed this so I guess Accu Weather wouldn't be the only one to blow the July long range forecast.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPA
- Cottone Mathere · Top Commenter
- Cottone Mathere · Top CommenterThis is why I was talking about the late June pattern changes, and how they tend to have lasting power. But here is the thing: if Accuwx has been inaccurate so far, there is no point in trusting them now. The patterns that set up in late june can last for most of july, but sometimes change in mid july. If there is a pattern change coming in about a week, neither Accuwx nor the models are likely to see it coming. The people like EPAWA might though. It helps sometimes having a more local emphasis, because by focusing on one region, especially one in which a forecaster lives, it makes it easier to notice patterns.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAVery good points Cottone. Maybe the best thing to do is before you go to work check the weather that morning and prepare for one day at a time. The EPAWA people as of last week were still on board that July would be slightly above normal temperature wise. We are only 7 days into the month. If I go by cooling degree days we are 18 below for 7 days which is about a 2.5 degree departure below normal. Actually I would rather have last year's pattern than this year's pattern where I live. While late July and early August were cool most days last year still saw temps in the low 80's just due to the sunny days. And the humidity last year was pleasant most days. Since the pattern changed 2 weeks ago we have seen many cloudy days and that has not only held the temp. down but when the sun comes out the humidity makes it rather uncomfortable even if the temp is low-mid 80's. I don't know. All I can say is we shall see. I did read the 8-14 day outlook. My area is in the area for below normal temps but areas not too far south are above normal. I guess NOAA is uncertain. I think they just don't really know where these cold fronts will stall. 150 miles could mean the difference between temperatures above normal and temperatures below normal.
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityI don't think anyone can really accurately predict rest of this summer even now in early July, the story keeps changing from day to day. From what I am sensing it is not looking promising for my area in terms of both heat and sunshine. Even if there is a late turn around it will be too little too late. 90F day at the end of August or in September (even though it is good) does not have the same feel to it as it would from now to about August 20th. After 8/20 daylight really starts vanishing at the very fast rate and with the long nites, lower sun angle, and frequent dew in the morning even on the 90F day at that point you already sense a change.
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.I think for many of these areas, overnight temps may be high but with daytime temps, not so much (July 2013 was a lot like this too).
- Cory Morrison · Follow · Top Commenter · Filing/Inventory Clerk at Independent Distributors Inc.Cotton and Wayne, once again, I don't think Accuwx was taking El Nino analogs fully into consideration when predicting this summer (Except for Brett Anderson perhaps because I remember he made a post back in the spring about what El Nino summers might look like).
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityThe set up is similar to 2013, except this year it is a colder version of it. It is like 2015 is taking the worst from 2013 and the worst from 2014 and combining it into a misery called "summer" of 2015. July 2013 was 1F above normal (high was normal, low was above normal), 2014 was 4F below normal (low was not as much below normal as high was), and so far July 2015 is at 5.5F below normal, so at this point I would gladly take both 2013 and even 2014 over this.
- Neven Prvinic · Follow · Top Commenter · Cleveland State UniversityI predict for my area that this July will end up 3F below normal (with high 4F below normal and low 2F below normal). Which means that insted of 83F/64F July 2015 will end up at 79F/62F just 1F warmer then July 2014. And I may be very generous here, as the wild card is still one of those Pacific typhons causing a "polar vortex". If we do get one of those then I would have to downgrade my numbers for July another 1F to same as 2014 or even 2F to 1F colder then 2014.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAThe difference between July 2014 and July 2015 is going to be that the humidity will be higher this year. Last year we had temps below normal and low humidity and cool nights. This year the daytime temps will be below normal, the nighttime temps above normal with lots of clouds and humidity. Yesterday the high temp was only 87 but the dew-point was near 70 the entire day. The 8 AM temperature is 77 and the Dew-point is near 70 right now. Last July and August while slightly cooler than average was mostly pleasant. This year the humidity has been bad. And if these cold fronts continue to stall at of just south of where I live then the pattern of clouds, humidity and lower than average temps may just continue through the rest of the month. On the Other hand Richmond VA which is 260 miles south of where I live will be baking this month while New England will be sunny and cool.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAI thought the cold fronts would be stalling about 150 miles north of where they are now stalling. (Imagine a line from Altoona PA to NYC). That could still happen later in the month and then we could see a strong of days like yesterday.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAAll I can add is that this morning has seen drizzle due to the Cold front slowing down over may area. Temp is 80 and Dew point in Low 70's but due to the clouds doesn't feel too muggy out. EPAWA is now saying the cold front will push just south of here tonight then return north tomorrow putting us in a position for showers/thunderstorms again. (UGH!). They are hopeful for a nice period of weather for Fri July 10-Mon July 13 which would see sunny skies and seasonable temps in the mid to upper 80's. I am just going to wait until tomorrow to see if the nice weather from Fri-Mon really does come to fruition.
- Aaron Ginther · Top Commenter · Central Virginia Community CollegeI'm west of the Greater Richmond Area and it's been very rainy here over the past 10 days. The fronts have kept stalling right over Maryland and Virginia, and this is has kept us cloudy, humid and unsettled for days on end since the end of June. The ground is so wet right now that it's going to take work for the ground to heat up efficiently. Later this week (but it keeps getting pushed back because of the cloud cover) we're expected to have temperatures consistently in the low 90's, although this is only typical July weather.
- Wayne Langhuber · Top Commenter · Tax Specialist at Robert Basickes CPAI know the SE was very hot much of June. Southern Pa was on the northern Periphery. Today is not much different than the last few days. Not real hot (83 degrees) but dew-points are in the low 70's. The forecast is that Friday to Monday will be very warm to hot in the Mid Atlantic. I am just not confident that won't change between now and tomorrow.
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