Typhoon Matmo (Henry) Threatens the Philippines, Taiwan, China; Typhoon Warnings Issued

July 21,2014

 

 

 

Talking Points

- Typhoon Matmo is forecast to strengthen a bit more before landfall
- Typhoon warnings issued for nearly all of Taiwan; landfall likely Tuesday night local time
- Eastern China may be affected Wednesday night into Thursday.
- Wind alerts issued for parts of the northern Philippines; flash flood, landslides also a threat
Typhoon warnings have been issued for most of Taiwan as Typhoon Matmo (Philippines name: Henry) moves northwestward. Matmo is expected to make landfall on the main island of Taiwan during the day Tuesday (U.S. time).
Matmo is the third typhoon to threaten the western Pacific Basin in less than three weeks.
(RECAPS: Super Typhoon Neoguri | Super Typhoon Rammasun)

Infrared Satellite

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Strengthening Forecast

Typhoon Matmo formed well east of the Philippines, near the island of Yap on Thursday. Matmo strengthened into a typhoon (equivalent to hurricane-strength in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific basins) on Saturday. Since then, it has struggled to gain strength, but has managed to increase its maximum sustained winds to an estimated 90 mph as of 8 p.m. EDT Monday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
With little vertical wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) over the warm 85-degree waters of the Philippine Sea, Matmo still has some potential to strengthen before reaching Taiwan in the late morning or midday hours Tuesday (U.S. time). However, Matmo has been ingesting some dry air into its circulation recently, and that seems to be limiting its potential.

Storm Track

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Impact: The Philippines

Matmo is expected to continue moving in a northwesterly direction over the next few days, following the steering currents in the upper atmosphere. The center of Matmo was just over 100 miles east-northeast of the northernmost islands of the Philippines as of late Monday evening (U.S. time).
But that doesn't mean there won't be some impacts in the Philippines.
The Philippine national weather agency, PAGASA, has hoisted "Public Storm Warning Signal No. 2" for the Batanes Islands, a small group of islands lies about halfway between the country's major northern island, Luzon, and the southern tip of Taiwan. The storm signal means winds of 61-100 kph (38 to 62 mph) are expected in at least 24 hours. The Batanes Islands have a population of about 16,000.
Basco, capital of the Batanes province, reported sustained northerly winds of 33 mph (just shy of tropical-storm force) as of 10 p.m. EDT Monday (U.S. time).
A "Public Storm Warning Signal No. 1" remains in effect for Cagayan province in the far northeastern part of Luzon. The storm signal means winds of 30 to 60 kph (19 to 37 mph) are expected in at least 36 hours. Cagayan province has just over 1.1 million people.
In addition, heavy rainbands on the west and southwest sides of the circulation of Matmo (Henry) may trigger flash flooding and mudslides over particularly northern Luzon, still saturated from heavy rainfall from Typhoon Rammasun.
(FORECAST: Manila)

Impact: Taiwan, China, Korea, Japan

Typhoon Matmo is tracking directly toward Taiwan. It will likely become the first typhoon to make landfall in Taiwan this year.
As of late Monday evening (U.S. time), the center of Matmo was about 340 miles southeast of Taipei, which is on the far northern part of Taiwan.
Matmo could be a Category 2 or stronger equivalent tropical cyclone as it approaches Taiwan late Tuesday night or early Wednesday local time (around midday Tuesday U.S. time), bringing with it the threat of damaging winds and extremely heavy rainfall leading to landslides on this mountainous island.
Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for the entire main island of Taiwan and the offshore islands of Ludao and Lanyu, southeast of Taiwan.
The typhoon's effects are already being felt on those smaller islands. According to the CWB, Lanyu reported a 91-mph wind gust at 11:15 a.m. local time Tuesday. Sustained tropical storm-force winds of up to 45 mph have already been reported there.
Just east of Taiwan, the far southwestern islands of Japan (including Ishigakijima) will feel some effects. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued warnings for high waves, and advisories for gale-force winds and thunderstorms, for some of those islands. The main island of Okinawa may see some peripheral effects from high waves and thunderstorms.
Beyond Taiwan, Matmo is expected to make landfall in eastern China somewhere south of Shanghai, most likely in the provinces of Fujian or Zhejiang, on Thursday. At this time, the nearest pass of the center of Matmo to Shanghai looks to be early Friday, local time (China is 12 hours ahead of U.S. EDT). At that point, Matmo's center is expected to be west of Shanghai and will have been inland for quite some time already, weakening significantly.
There is some chance that Matmo could then recurve northeastward and strike the Korean Peninsula by the weekend. That will depend in part on whether Matmo can survive its trek across land in eastern China; the farther west Matmo goes into China, the less the chance any meaningful cyclone will be left to deflect into Korea later.
Interests in the northern Philippines, Taiwan, eastern China, and the Koreas should continue to monitor the progress of this system closely.
(FORECAST: Taipei | Shanghai | Kadena)
MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Super Typhoon Rammasun (Glenda) Photos

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People repair a house destroyed by Typhoon Rammasun in Batangas, southwest of Manila on July 17, 2014, a day after the storm barreled over the region . (Ted Aljibe/Getty Images)