Tropical Storm Neoguri
continues its steady weakening trend as it closes in on the large
southern Japanese island of Kyushu. Landfall of the center is expected
to occur near 6 am local time on Thursday (Wednesday night in the U.S.)
Once a mighty super typhoon with 155 mph winds, Neoguri has now weakened
to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds as of 11 am EDT on Wednesday. Satellite images
Wednesday morning showed a continued deterioration of Neoguri's heavy
thunderstorms as high wind shear of 20 knots tore at the storm and the
storm moved over cooler sea surface temperatures. Neoguri passed through
Japan's Ryukyu Islands on Monday, killing two people and injuring 30. Japan Meteorological Agency
radar showed that very heavy rains of up to two inches per hour (50.8
mm/hr) were affecting southern Kyushu Wednesday night local time
(Wednesday morning EDT), and Tahiro recorded 55 mm (2.16") in the two hours ending at 10 pm local time on Wednesday. Some mountainous areas of southern Japan are predicted
to receive 20 - 28" of rain from Neoguri. With soils already saturated
from a week of heavy rains prior to Neoguri's arrival, damaging flooding
is expected.
Figure 1. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri at 22 UTC July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a weakening Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds.
Figure 2. Radar image of rains from Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 10:50 pm local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather
While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average.
Figure 3. One-week forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for July 16, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 9, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to form over the Midwest U.S., bringing temperatures 10 - 20°F below average. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. ESA astronaut Alexander Gerst tweeted this photo of Typhoon Neoguri at 22 UTC July 8, 2014. At the time, Neoguri was a weakening Category 2 typhoon with 100 mph winds.
Figure 2. Radar image of rains from Neoguri affecting southern Japan, at 10:50 pm local time Wednesday, July 9, 2014. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.
Links
Japanese radar
Official Neoguri forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency
Impact of Neoguri on U.S. weather
While the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri will not impact the U.S. directly, the large and powerful nature of this storm has set in motion a chain-reaction set of events that will dramatically alter the path of the jet stream and affect weather patterns across the entire Northern Hemisphere next week. Neoguri will cause an acceleration of the North Pacific jet stream, causing a large amount of warm, moist tropical air to push over the North Pacific. This will amplify a trough low pressure over Alaska, causing a ripple effect in the jet stream over western North America, where a strong ridge of high pressure will develop, and over the Midwestern U.S., where a strong trough of low pressure will form. This jet stream pattern is similar to the nasty"Polar Vortex" pattern that set up during the winter of 2014 over North America, and will cause an unusually cool third week of July over the portions of the Midwest and Ohio Valley, with temperatures 10 - 20°F below average.
Figure 3. One-week forecast for the departure of surface temperature from average for July 16, 2014, as predicted by the GFS model at 00 UTC July 9, 2014. A strong trough of low pressure is predicted to form over the Midwest U.S., bringing temperatures 10 - 20°F below average. Data/image obtained using Climate Reanalyzer™ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org), Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, Orono, Maine.
Jeff Masters
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335. GTstormChaserCaleb
2:01 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:It's not really that hard to see, my professor agrees with the trough patterns in the summer which he alluded to as part of the reason why the 2013 season under performed. Question is what's causing the troughiness + or - AMO, PDO? or something even greater Global Warming? If this trend continues for a couple more years, there is none reason whatsoever to believe that Global Warming is having an impact. Also, the SAL outbreaks have been stronger than normal for July the past 2 seasons all of this and yet the Sahel region has seen above average precipitation and then there is drought in Brazil. And don't get me started on the Texas Death Ridge and the droughts in California. It's not really that hard to see that the climate is becoming the bigger issue here. This is not normal, Kori and it's worrisome when you factor in sea level rise and where the majority of the worlds population resides right along the coastline. |
334. BahaHurican
2:00 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 328. KoritheMan:That, too... lol... But realistically, we've been lucky to have Arthur so early.... There have been quite a number of years when first storm didn't form until after Aug 1. I think we better be grateful we get better info from the WPac nowadays; at least we can follow the twins [or triplets lol] for ourselves and not get too bored before next month... |
333. Stormwatch247
1:59 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 324. bluenosedave: That is really amazing, and a GREAT LINK!! It is incredible that birds get stuck in the eye and can still fly such great distances! They must have eaten their Wheaties before Arthur swooped them up your way. :) |
332. KoritheMan
1:57 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 330. Naga5000:Any amount of extra heat added to the atmosphere will undoubtedly effect some things. It'll be interesting to see how or what, though. Everything will likely be affected differently, and some may see only minimal change (the tropics in particular I'd assume would stay largely the same in an AGW-based world). |
331. BahaHurican
1:54 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 323. KoritheMan:ENSO to me is another major climate pattern that IMO we could use a lot more data about. I have a feeling there's more than one "sub-type" of El Nino out there, and we've seen basically two types so far... while larger climate oscillations may have some impact on frequency, I'll bet ENSO patterns in and of themselves are not as static as we think. In the same way tropical cyclones may follow general track patterns we recognise while intensifying and de-intensifying in ways we still don't fully understand, our understanding of ENSO development and intensification still has a lot of room for improvement. This is why all the cries of "boom!" and "bust!" and vilification of whichever group currently seems to be wrong are just a waste of time in my view. Observe and learn. Predict; hypothesize; learn.... |
330. Naga5000
1:53 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 323. KoritheMan: Quoting 325. GTstormChaserCaleb: It's comments like this from Dr. Rood that give me pause: "I wrote a long, some would say tedious, series of blogs on the Arctic Oscillation, changes in sea ice and atmospheric blocking (all of those terms defined in that series). Whether or not the changes in the Arctic are having large impacts on weather in middle latitudes or the tropics remains an open question subject to scientific investigation. From the point of view of predicting El Niño, during this prediction cycle we have levels of sea ice that are far lower than in previous El Niño cycles. This changes the heat exchange between the atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic. This is outside of the range of previous variability, which intrinsically increases the uncertainty in the forecast. The same could be said for springtime snow cover. In short, our background environment, on which we have developed what forecast skill we have, is changing. Also in my mind is a project that I participated in back in 2011 and 2012, where we were concerned about La Niña and flooding in the Upper Missouri River Basin. In that project, any sensitivity to La Niña was overwhelmed by the Arctic Oscillation being in its negative phase." We don't know enough to say definitively that it is having an effect, but from what I understand of climate I can't see how it wouldn't have some effect on things. I'm certainly more curious than anything. |
329. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:52 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 326. Envoirment:That's it I'm packing up my bags and heading to the WPAC. |
328. KoritheMan
1:52 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 325. GTstormChaserCaleb:People are just hurricane-starved. :) |
327. Dakster
1:51 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 318. PedleyCA: Sure... Sorry, just saw this though. |
326. Envoirment
1:50 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 321. GTstormChaserCaleb: The CMC has triplets (click to enlarge):  :) |
325. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:49 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 322. Naga5000:I'm inclined to start believing this Arctic Ice Melt is having an impact, not just on steering patterns of storms, but ocean temperatures as well. High Pressure up in the Arctic, High Pressure in the Atlantic and trough right in between. Just need to go back to 2010-2012 to see what the pattern has been. So this atmospheric heat transfer are we talking about water temperatures on up towards the atmosphere and how that cycle works and the transport of heat? It's a very interesting topic when discussing it along with El Nino. |
324. bluenosedave
1:48 AM GMT on July 10, 2014| More about birds and Arthur. Apparently a lot more exotics reached Nova Scotia than I realized. I previously posted about the flock of Franklin's gulls I've seen here in Yarmouth (some of which were still around this afternoon), but birders elsewhere have reported black skimmers, laughing gulls, royal terns, and so on, mostly in my region. Link |
323. KoritheMan
1:46 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 322. Naga5000:Meh. Until I have reason to assume that El Nino will be made different or modulated by the human footprint, I'm not going to base my predictions off that possibility. :P |
322. Naga5000
1:38 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 314. KoritheMan: That may be completely true, but there is also the fact we have completely messed up the normal processes of atmospheric heat transfer. I'm personally not sure if previous norms mean much now and that they may mean even less moving forward. It's up in the air, but I'm no expert. :) |
321. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:38 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Twins in the WPAC coming up. 
|
320. Tropicsweatherpr
1:36 AM GMT on July 10, 2014|
JTWC upgrades 92W to Medium chance to develop. THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 154.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 103 NM NORTH OF CHUUK, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPACT SYSTEM THAT HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AS FORMATIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO AN OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW - ONE ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WESTWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NUMERIC WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS DEVELOP THIS AREA IN VARYING DEGREES WITH THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BEING GFS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. |
319. pablosyn
1:33 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
The day here in Porto Alegre dawned this way...Yeah, Germany are until
in our sky...Black, Red and Yellow....Haha 2014 is really of the
Germany.
|
318. PedleyCA
1:31 AM GMT on July 10, 2014|
You wanna try that chat again? |
317. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:31 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Cool down coming for the northern parts of the US. meanwhile the Sahel
region of Africa will be burning up and parts of the Middle East.
|
316. BahaHurican
1:28 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 312. Astrometeor:How can you not love Walmart!!!! LOL EDIT: I bought a thermometer and a rain gauge in there once.... No, wait... the rain gauge I actually got at a Dollar Store.... ;o) |
315. BahaHurican
1:25 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 308. GTstormChaserCaleb:Me too.... though I don't find much to quibble with about the mid and long-range GFS / CFS forecasts... aside from the multiple mid-latitude deep low systems one would not typically associate with the final decade of July, it looks pretty much par for the course. Activity seems slated to pick up right on time - around August 10 or so.... to me it doesn't seem much better than climatology.... but that's the fun of it.... lol ... |
314. KoritheMan
1:25 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 305. Naga5000:I'm personally in doubt because the atmospheric signal still doesn't appear suggestive of El Nino. Have you seen the 500 mb height patterns over North America during May and June? Ridging over the east coast is not what we would anticipate during El Nino events, which usually triggers a semipermanent trough aloft over that region. Also, ENSO events tend to transition during the late spring or early summer. Time is quickly running out. |
313. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:24 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
|
312. Astrometeor
1:21 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 353. sar2401: That's one reason I try to avoid Walmart. That, and they're not convenient (to me), and don't sell much that I want/need. |
311. Dakster
1:20 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 308. GTstormChaserCaleb: You can't do worse than some of the professional forecasters out there. |
310. PedleyCA
1:20 AM GMT on July 10, 2014| You still on here Dakster? |
309. StormsWanted
1:20 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 296. sar2401: Is that so? Huh. Then NY's Tornado History Project page must be full of utter manure, right? New York's tornado history Link Tornado History Project -- New York Link It obviously happens. Cuomo is a moron to insinuate otherwise. |
308. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:18 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 307. BahaHurican:Baha I'll be honest I have no idea what's in store for the rest of the season. I feel like I can speculate it to death and watch the complete opposite occur. |
307. BahaHurican
1:13 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 300. BahaHurican:Also looks like it's going to stay rather "south" due to a remarkable series of mid-latitude systems.... don't remember seeing anything quite like that in July.... |
306. GTstormChaserCaleb
1:13 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
12z GFS from the FIM website. :D
|
305. Naga5000
1:11 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 279. ncstorm: I never said their predictions always come to fruition. All I was saying is that it is way too early to declare El Nino a bust and start in on changing hurricane predictions when current conditions favor an el nino (70% chance) this year. Of course the professionals can get it wrong and they do often. |
304. BahaHurican
1:05 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 298. sar2401:Yeah... saw that later..... lol |
303. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:04 AM GMT on July 10, 2014|
Japan Meteorological Agency Tropical Cyclone Advisory #57 Storm Warning SEVERE TROPICAL STORM NEOGURI (T1408) 9:00 AM JST July 10 2014 ============================= Near Miyazaki [Miyazaki Prefecture] At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (985 hPa) located at 32.1N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots.. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 16 knots. Gale Force Winds ============== 325 NM from the center in southeast quadrant 210 NM from the center in northwest quadrant Dvorak Intensity: T3.0 Forecast and Intensity =============== 24 HRS: 36.8N 141.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) southeast of Iwaki [Fukushima Prefecture] 48 HRS: 44.6N 146.8E - Extratropical Cyclone east of Hokkaido |
302. GTstormChaserCaleb
12:58 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 297. ncstorm:They predicted an above average hurricane season in 2006 as well. It just proves that making a prediction is never an exact thing, you can anticipate what may happen, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. That's what makes this field great, you can still get to keep your job and get paid for being wrong. They still use sound science in their predictions. But like me or you or anyone on this blog and in general we could throw out a prediction and nail it in the end. The NHC may be the first to admit that this is their greatest flaw-making pre-season predictions, but they sure do a hell of a job at alerting the public of oncoming bad weather and sending out advisories, warning the public, and help coordinate with other agencies to get people to safety away from the storm. They are the best in the business at what they do and still I would take their predictions anyday over some joe-shmo from the end of the street. |
301. CaicosRetiredSailor
12:57 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 292. BahaHurican: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_s cales#Alternative_scales |
300. BahaHurican
12:56 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 293. ncstorm:Thanks 4 sharing .... looks like AB high expected to dominate 'til the end of the month .... |
299. txjac
12:53 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 274. sar2401: I have felt your pain previously ...quite frustrating when you watch it all unfold on radar |
298. sar2401
12:49 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting BahaHurican: Good guess but incorrect. See #267. In this case, context was being used by one blogger to "improve" the JMA system. |
297. ncstorm
12:48 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 289. CybrTeddy: thanks Teddy..you're right :) but still they were predicting a below average season in 2005 after August and that didnt happen either.. 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season from CPC The predicted 2004 activity is based primarily on the ongoing active phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal signal, but also reflects expected warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the likelihood that ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) will continue through August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated hurricane outlook will be issued in early August. |
296. sar2401
12:46 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting Chucktown: From his own lips: “We don’t get tornadoes in New York. Anyone will tell you that,” Cuomo said. “Well, we do now, and this new normal of extreme weather is a challenge for government, it’s a challenge for first responders and it’s a challenge for every citizen in this state.” Link I'm actually glad to see a governor who acknowledges climate change is happening. It's too bad he's an idiot who apparently doesn't know much about the climate of his own state. There are ignorant governors in both camps I guess. |
295. Climate175
12:45 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 294. Dakster:Preach hit Dakster! |
294. Dakster
12:42 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 288. Climate175: Apparently you don't need brains to run for Governor.... But, hey, at least he gets the important stuff, right. Well.... Maybe not... |
293. ncstorm
12:39 AM GMT on July 10, 2014|
Just for entertainment purposes and pattern recognition as I've been told on this blog.. CFS latest run-run the loop and the spread |
292. BahaHurican
12:39 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 263. sar2401:Context clues tell all. A STS = a category 2 typhoon.... if so, one should be able to access the archive and see these different categories in effect, matched by the "name" of the storm... |
291. Dakster
12:38 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 287. PedleyCA: Like Miami lately... Can't wait to leave Miami again... |
290. sar2401
12:36 AM GMT on July 10, 2014| Oh, cripes. If you look at #274 (which I guess soon won't make much sense, since the image apparently autoupdates), you can see a healthy looking line of storms coming in from the west. The storms begin to weaken and move NE This is still happening. As you can see, Eufaula is right on the shore of a Lake called, strangely enough, Lake Eufaula. It's a big lake. A surface area of almost 300 square miles and shoreline of over 600 miles. I've seen this pattern before when storms approach from the west. Look god, start to turn NE, weaken, and I don't get squat. If the storms approach from the south, this doesn't seem to happen, even though they traverse the entire lake. Do you think the lake "deflects" storms from the west while storms from the south maintain intensity, getting additional energy from the relatively warm lake? My fiance is starting to think I'm a really lousy forecaster now. :-) |
289. CybrTeddy
12:35 AM GMT on July 10, 2014| NC, you're thinking 2004, that was the one with the Modoki. 2005 was a neutral ENSO. |
288. Climate175
12:33 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 281. Chucktown:Is he serious ? .... WOW |
287. PedleyCA
12:32 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 276. Dakster: HOT, 9 days in a row over 90F, and been humid a bit too. |
286. Tropicsweatherpr
12:32 AM GMT on July 10, 2014|
00z Best Track for 92W. 92W INVEST 140710 0000 9.1N 151.8E WPAC 20 1007 |
285. nrtiwlnvragn
12:28 AM GMT on July 10, 2014
Quoting 273. GTstormChaserCaleb: The TAO bouy array has degraded significantly. There are very few operational now in the Nino 3.4 area. 
|
