(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)
Typhoon MATMO is located about 650 NM SSE of Taipei and is now heading NNW at 12Kts. Although convection has increased some since yesterday (with a fairly strong convective burst over the last 2 hours), wind shear of nearly 20 Kts has continued to inhibit major intensification over the last 24hrs. OTH, outflow appears to have improved some, though remains somewhat restricted in the NE semi-circle. Latest intensity estimates (Dvorak approaching T-5) support 75Kt sustained winds.
Fig 1: Enhanced IR image of Typhoon MATMO. Despite major convective burst during the last few hours, there is no indication that MATMO is intensifying 'rapidly'.
With very warm SST’s ahead and lowering of wind shear to near 10 Kts expected during the next 24-72 hrs., MATMO should intensify to near CAT 3 intensity just prior to reaching the Taiwan coast at around 09Z Wed.
Fig 2: There has been very little change in track or intensity forecasts for MATMO since yesterday, with landfall along the east coast of Taiwan expected WED at near CAT 3 intensity.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC
Although a broad area of Low pressure has formed near 30W, none of the global models is forecasting cyclone formation – and none is expected this week. In general, there has not been any significant change in environmental conditions across the tropical Atlantic since yesterday, however, the general ‘trend’ towards a more conducive environment for cyclone formation during the next 10 days continues.
The next complete update will be Monday afternoon.
Steve Gregory
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