Tropical system may form in eastern Gulf of Mexico next week

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

June 1,2016; 9:27PM,EDT

 

 Bonnie unleashed tropical downpours across the Carolinas on Memorial Day weekend, leading to flooding.

Areas from Central America to southeastern Mexico, western Cuba and southern Florida will be on alert into next week as a tropical system may form.
The window for tropical development will reopen about a week after the formation of Tropical Depression 2, which went on to become Tropical Storm Bonnie, near the Carolina coast over Memorial Day weekend.
"We are suspicious about the area near Central America because it is in a region where we often see tropical development during June," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.

Water temperatures in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and the waters surrounding the Florida Peninsula, are in the low to middle 80s F (27 to 30 C), which are warm enough to sustain a tropical system.
However, warm waters alone are not enough to cause a tropical system to form.
An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a weak system is forecast to form and drift westward across the Caribbean this week.

Provided winds aloft remain light over the region, a slow spin could take shape with the showers and thunderstorms as they develop and drift northward toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
As a front sags into the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida during next week, steering winds could guide that disturbed area toward the northeast, perhaps across the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas.
"Development can sometimes occur in the vicinity of a front that sags into or near the tropics," Kottlowski said.
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"While development into an organized tropical system is not a certainty, formation into a depression is not likely through Saturday," Kottlowski said. "It is possible the system may not develop until it reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico or swings east of Florida."
Torrential downpours, gusty squalls and rough seas would be the initial concerns for a tropical system in the early stages of development even without official designation.
Downpours associated with the area of disturbed weather could first soak parts of Cuba, Belize and Yucatan, Mexico, this weekend, followed by the Florida Keys and Peninsula early next week.
Should the system organize into a tropical depression or storm, then winds will become more of a concern.
The situation in the tropical Atlantic basin does not warrant changes to travel itinerary at this time. However, interests in the region should continue to monitor the area for potential adverse weather conditions beginning this weekend.
Should the system become organized and gather enough strength, the next name on the list of tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2016 Atlantic season is Colin, following Tropical Storm Bonnie.
"While Hurricane Alex formed during January 2016, it is probably more accurate to consider the system as the tail end of the 2015 season, rather than an early storm for the 2016 season," Kottlowski said. "We are not figuring Alex into the AccuWeather 2016 Atlantic hurricane season forecast as a result."