Tropical Storm Danielle a Flood, Mudslide Threat to Mexico

June 20,2016
Tropical Storm Danielle will make landfall in Mexico on Monday or Monday night, where it could cause life-threatening flash floods and possible mudslides early this week.
Danielle is the earliest forming fourth named storm on record in the Atlantic basin, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

• Tropical Storm Danielle is located about 75 miles east-southeast of Tuxpan, Mexico, and is moving west at 7 mph.
• Maximum sustained winds are around 45 mph as of late Monday morning.
• Danielle is forecast to move west towards Mexico where it will move inland over eastern Mexico later Monday.
• A tropical storm warning is in effect for Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco, Mexico.
• 6-10 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 15 inches, are possible in eastern Mexico, which could cause flooding and mudslides early this week.
• Danielle is no direct threat to the U.S. mainland. That said, dangerous rip currents could occur along the Texas coast along with locally heavy rain in far south Texas.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Status

Danielle is being steered westward towards Mexico on the southeastern periphery of an expansive area of high pressure aloft that is also responsible for a Desert Southwest heat wave. This will keep the system well south of the U.S. border.

Projected Path

The main impact from this system, therefore, will be a continued increase in rain and thunderstorms near the Mexican Gulf Coast. Any heavier areas of rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and possible mudslides in eastern Mexico.
That said, there may be some peripheral effects for U.S. interests.
A surge of deep moisture typically occurs on the east and northeast flank of these southwest Gulf of Mexico systems.

Forecast Rainfall

Therefore, we can't rule out some locally heavy rain making it to parts of Deep South Texas.
(FORECAST: Cancun, Mexico | Veracruz, Mexico | S. Padre Island, Texas)
Also, an increase in onshore winds, leading to a risk of rip currents and elevated surf, is possible along the South Texas coast into at least Monday.
Don't cancel your beach plans, but just be aware of the rip current threat.
(MORE: The Underrated Danger or Rip Currents)

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco, Mexico.

Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings

Check back with us at weather.com for updates on this system.

Infrared Satellite

June Climatology

Tropical cyclone formation is fairly common in the Bay of Campeche and even over the Yucatán Peninsula during June.

Tropical Cyclone Origin Points

Typically in June, waters continue to warm around the Central America, and wind shear begins to decrease. Both of these factors begin to increase tropical activity.

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes