Does Danielle's Mid-June Appearance Say Anything About The Rest of Hurricane Season?

Jonathan Belles
Published: June 22,2016

Danielle's name was scratched off the list June 20, and this hurricane season is now two months ahead of schedule. Does this mean we're in for a long, busy hurricane season?
We're in uncharted territory now, but likely this activity doesn't lend itself to a more active season.
According to Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel, there were 18 headstart hurricane seasons, seasons that had tropical storms or hurricanes before June 1, going back to 1950.

Out of 18 headstart seasons, eight were below-average and 10 were above-average hurricane seasons. Six of those seasons were near-average hurricane seasons using a 1950-2015 climatological normal of 11 to 12 tropical storms.
Lowry says, "Basically, it's a mixed bag. What's interesting is none of those years were 'super seasons' like 2005, 1995, 2004, 1950, 1961, 1998, 1999, etc."
(MORE: 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast)

Danielle's Debby Downer

Since name lists were started in 1953 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there have only been two “D” storms in June:

• Tropical Storm Danielle, a short-lived storm that formed on June 20, 2016.
• Tropical Storm Debby, a tropical storm that formed on June 23, 2012 in the central Gulf of Mexico and brought windy and rainy conditions to portions of Florida for multiple days.

Prior to Debby, Dennis in 2005 held the record for earliest "D" storm.
The current record for earliest "E" storm is Hurricane Emily in 2005, which formed on July 11.

Is this record accurate?

We’ve had reliable satellite coverage of the Atlantic only since the early 1970s and spotty coverage going back into the 1960s.
Before the 1960s, the wide expanse of the Atlantic Basin was largely unmonitored. Occasionally, hurricane hunter aircraft, passing ships and planes would capture observations of distant tropical cyclones.
But what happens when a tropical cyclone exists only as a “fish” storm that stays away from land?
Take a look at the path of Hurricane Michael, a Category 3 hurricane in 2012, which was more than 700 miles from any land when it was at peak intensity. Had Michael occurred in 1912, it likely would have been missed.

Track of Hurricane Michael, 2012

Michael was one of two major hurricanes in the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Without satellite imagery, seasonal hurricane numbers would likely be lower due to those out to sea systems. Likewise, there is a good likelihood that there were more early season storms, including more third tropical storms, prior to the satellite era.

Four tropical storms in June before: the results

Before 2016, there was only one year in which four tropical storms occurred in June, and that was in 2012.

2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks. Tropical Storm Debby is highlighted in white.
(NHC)

The average fourth named storm occurs on Aug. 23, and the fifth system typically occurs on Aug. 31, according to the NHC.
The 1981-2010 average hurricane season consists of 12.0 tropical storms, 6.5 hurricanes, and 2.0 hurricanes with winds at or greater than 111 mph.

Now you know...

Early-season activity has little to do with the rest of the season. Patterns can and often do change as we move from one month to the next, and there will be bursts of activity from time to time.
La Niña, a favorable pattern for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, is forecast to develop as we move toward the peak of this hurricane season. This favorable pattern and other favorable climate signals, like warmer than normal ocean temperatures and at least average moisture content in the tropics, are something that future disturbances and tropical waves can build on to flourish and become named storms.
Development is all about the environmental conditions that are handed to a disturbance at the time it exists.
MORE: Hurricane Satellite Images