Typhoon Nangka Sets Its Sights on Japan (FORECAST)

Jon Erdman
Published: July 14,2015
Typhoon Nangka remains a Category 2 equivalent typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean, and while it is currently over open waters to the east of Okinawa, Nangka poses a threat to parts of Japan later this week.
Nangka is tracking toward the north, a path that will eventually take it toward Japan's four main islands later this week. As of 11 a.m. Japanese time Wednesday (11 p.m. EDT Tuesday in the U.S.), Nangka was roughly 650 miles south-southwest of Tokyo.

Enhanced Satellite: Nangka

Nangka now appears to be fighting dry air to its north and at least some low to moderate wind shear but some additional strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours.
Instead of curling northeastward out to sea, as some west Pacific tropical cyclones do, high pressure aloft to the northeast of Nangka will instead steer it toward parts of mainland Japan.

Nangka Forecast Path

At this time, both the official Japanese Meteorological Agency forecasts and those from the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center show the center of Nangka moving toward western Japan – including the islands of Shikoku and Kyushu and western parts of Honshu. Depending on the exact track and intensity of Nangka, parts of central Japan – including the heavily populated Osaka, Kobe and Kyoto metropolitan areas – could see significant impacts from Nangka.
For now, the timing of the arrival of the center of Nangka, thus the peak impact, appears to arrive in western Japan late Thursday into Friday, local time. As typical, the typhoon will be weakening as it arrives in Japan, but how much remains uncertain, and will have a big determination on the severity of impacts.
We are expecting Nangka to remain well east of Okinawa, including Kadena Air Base.
Interests in western Japan and the southeastern Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Typhoon Nangka.
(FORECASTS: Okinawa | Nagasaki | Tokyo)
Nangka briefly became a super typhoon -- maximum sustained winds reaching 150 mph -- late Thursday into early Friday, before northerly wind shear eroded convection on the north side of the circulation Friday.
According to hurricane specialist Michael Lowry, Wednesday, July 8 marked the first time in over 20 years that three typhoons were active in the western Pacific basin at the same time (Chan-hom, Linfa and Nangka).

MORE: Super Typhoon Maysak Images (March-April 2015)