Hurricane Dolores to Trigger a Moisture Surge for Desert Southwest (FORECAST)

July 16,2015

Highlights

• Hurricane Dolores is currently located about 250 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and is gradually moving toward the northwest.
• Dolores rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane overnight Tuesday night.
• Dolores has since weakened, and was a Category 2 storm as of Thursday evening.
• Sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 114 mph were measured by automated equipment on Socorro Island, a small volcanic island under Mexican jurisdiction late Wednesday night. Dolores has slowly moved away to the northwest since then.
• Dolores is expected to continue moving northwest over the next few days, weakening as it does.
• High surf, rip currents, and an occasional outer rainband can be expected along the southwest Mexican coast and the southern Baja peninsula.
• A moisture surge triggered by Dolores may bring a threat of locally heavy rain threat for parts of the Desert Southwest this weekend.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)

The Latest Status, Forecast Path and Infrared Satellite Maps

Latest Status

Projected Path

Enhanced Satellite

While Hurricane Dolores is expected to remain off the Mexican Pacific coast, including the Baja California peninsula, there will still be some peripheral impacts, even for parts of the U.S.
Outer rainbands may, at times, wrap into the southern Baja peninsula and far southwest Mexico.
Otherwise, the primary impact along the Mexican coast will be high surf and dangerous rip currents. According to Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN), waves of 6 to 13 feet (2 to 4 meters) are expected along the Baja California Pacific coast through the rest of the week.
Dolores is about to track into an environment of more stable air and cooler water. Thus, weakening will occur through the weekend into early next week well west of the Baja peninsula.

Southwest Moisture Surge

However, Dolores' path west of the Baja peninsula will send a surge of deep tropical moisture up the Gulf of California into parts of the Desert Southwest mainly Friday into the weekend.
This will enhance the threat of thunderstorms from the Four Corners into the Desert Southwest, including parts of New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada and Southern California.
(FORECAST: Phoenix | Tucson | Las Vegas)
Slow-moving thunderstorms may trigger significant local flash flooding in these areas through at least the weekend, thanks to this moisture surge.
Dolores will also send swells northward to the beaches of Southern California as soon as Friday, continuing into the weekend. South-facing beaches will see highest surf, with dangerous rip currents also likely.
Farther west in the eastern Pacific, Enrique became a tropical storm Monday morning but is now weakening. The western Pacific is also active with Halola and Nangka currently in the basin.
MORE: Hurricane Strikes (PHOTOS)