Hurricane Dolores Passing Near Socorro Island; Moisture Surge Ahead for Desert Southwest (FORECAST)

July 15,2015

Highlights

• Hurricane Dolores is currently located close to Socorro Island, just under 300 miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, and continues to move west-northwest at around 6 mph.
• Dolores rapidly intensified to a Category 4 hurricane overnight Tuesday night.
• Dolores has since weakened, and was a Category 3 storm as of late Tuesday evening.
• Sustained winds of 80 mph with gusts to 114 mph were measured by automated equipment on Socorro Island, a small volcanic island under Mexican jurisdiction.
• Dolores is expected to continue to track west-northwest, staying well south of Los Cabos and the southern Baja peninsula.
• High surf, rip currents, and an occasional outer rainband can be expected along southwest Mexican coast and the southern Baja peninsula.
• A moisture surge triggered by Dolores may bring a threat of locally heavy rain threat for parts of the Desert Southwest this weekend.

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Central | Tropical Update)

The Latest Status, Forecast Path and Infrared Satellite Maps

Latest Status

Projected Path

Enhanced Satellite

While Hurricane Dolores is expected to remain well southwest and south of the Mexican Pacific coast, including the Baja peninsula, there will still be some peripheral impacts, even for parts of the U.S.
Outer rainbands may, at times, wrap into the southern Baja peninsula and far southwest Mexico.
Otherwise, the primary impact along the Mexican coast will be high surf and dangerous rip currents. According to Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN), waves of 6 to 13 feet (2 to 4 meters) are expected along the coast of the states of Jalisco, Colima and Baja California through the rest of the week.
Dolores may strengthen a bit more through Thursday, until it tracks into an environment of more stable air and cooler water, after which it will weaken later this week well west of the Baja peninsula.

Southwest Moisture Surge

However, Dolores' path west of the Baja peninsula will send a surge of deep tropical moisture up the Gulf of California into parts of the Desert Southwest mainly Friday into the weekend.
This will enhance the threat of thunderstorms from the Four Corners into the Desert Southwest, including parts of New Mexico, Arizona and Southern California.
(FORECAST: Phoenix | Tucson | Las Vegas)
Slow-moving thunderstorms may trigger significant local flash flooding in these areas through at least the weekend, thanks to this moisture surge.
Farther west in the eastern Pacific, Enrique became a tropical storm Monday morning. The western Pacific is also active with Halola and Nangka currently in the basin.
MORE: Hurricane Strikes (PHOTOS)