Invest 94L in Western Caribbean Little Threat to Develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:48PM,GMT on October 24,2014

The remains of Tropical Depression Nine, which dissipated over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday night, were moving offshore of Belize into the Western Caribbean on Friday morning. This disturbance is being labeled Invest 94L by NHC. Belize radar and satellite loops show that 94L has only a few poorly-organized clusters of heavy thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the adjacent waters. None of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis were predicting development of 94L in their Friday morning runs. A trough of low pressure connected to the large Nor'easter affecting the Northeast U.S. is bringing high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots to the Western Caribbean and is injecting dry air, which is discouraging development. The 8 am EDT Friday run of the SHIPS model indicates that these hostile conditions will persist into early next week. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10%. If development does occur, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula would be most at risk of receiving impacts from the storm.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 94L in the Western Caribbean.

Eastern Pacific disturbance may develop
An area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific a few hundred miles south of the Mexico/Guatemala border has changed little since Thursday, but has the potential to develop early next week. Our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis all develop the system by early next week, and in their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the disturbance 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 0% and 50%, respectively. The storm's heaviest rains will likely remain offshore over the next five days.


Figure 2. VIIRS satellite image of Invest 90A in the Arabian Sea on Thursday, October 23, 2014. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Arabian Sea disturbance may develop
In the Arabian Sea between India and Africa, an area of disturbed weather (Invest 90A) is growing more organized, and our top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, have been consistently predicting in recent runs that this disturbance will develop into a significant tropical cyclone by early next week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center gives the disturbance a medium chance of developing by Saturday. Conditions are favorable for development, with moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots, excellent upper-level outflow, and very warm ocean temperatures of 28 - 29°C (82 - 84°F.) The storm will head slowly northwestwards, and the 00Z Friday runs of the GFS and European models predicted a landfall in Oman near 00 UTC Wednesday, October 29.


Video 1. New surveillance camera video released on October 23, 2014, of Hurricane Odile in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, on September 14, 2014, as violent winds in the back eyewall destroyed the hotel lobby where the iCyclone chase team was sheltering.

Jeff Masters