QuikSCAT's Replacement, the RapidScat Ocean Wind Sensor, Installed on Space Station

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:17PM,GMT on September 30,2014

In November 2009, one of the greatest success stories in the history of satellite meteorology came to an end when the venerable QuikSCAT satellite failed. Launched in 1999, the QuikSCAT satellite became one of the most useful and controversial meteorological satellites ever to orbit the Earth. It carried a scatterometer--a radar instrument that can measure near-surface wind speed and direction over the ocean. Forecasters world-wide came to rely on QuikSCAT wind data to issue timely warnings and make accurate forecasts of tropical and extratropical storms, wave heights, sea ice, aviation weather, iceberg movement, coral bleaching events, and El Niño. Originally expected to last just 2 - 3 years, QuikSCAT made it past ten, a testament to the skill of the engineers that designed the satellite. A QuikSCAT replacement called ISS-RapidScat was funded in 2011 and built in just 18 months. RapidScat was successfully launched on September 20, 2014 on a SpaceX Dragon cargo spacecraft, which docked last week with the International Space Station (ISS.) This morning, RapidScat was plucked out of the Dragon and install it on the Space Station. The heaters have been turned on, and full activation of RapidScat is expected on Wednesday. In a clever reuse of hardware originally built to test parts of NASA's QuikScat satellite, RapidScat cost NASA just $30 million--80% lower than if the instrument had been built new.


Figure 1. Members of the Robotics Flight Control team at NASA and CSA (Canadian Space Agency) sent commands from their ground control center to the ISS to move the robots Canadarm2 and Dextre to install RapidScat on the Space Station on Tuesday, September 30, 2014. The white cylinder is the SpaceX Dragon, docked at the ISS. Thanks go to NASA/CSA's Kamran Bahrami for correcting me on where the commands to install RapidScat originated from. Image credit: Alexander Gerst.

What RapidScat will do
ISS-RapidScat is a radar scatterometer designed to sense near-surface winds over the ocean. The instrument sends a pulse of 13.4 gigahertz microwaves towards the Earth’s surface and measures the intensity of the return pulse that reflects back from the surface. In general, strong radar return signals represent rough surfaces, while weak radar return signals represent smooth surfaces. Stronger winds produce larger waves and therefore stronger radar return signals. The return signal also tells scientists the direction of the wind, since waves line up in the same direction the wind is blowing. The ISS orbit takes the space station between 51.6°N - 51.6°S latitude, and RapidScat will not be able to "see" ocean winds at high latitudes beyond 57°. QuikSCAT measured winds in a swath 1,800 km wide centered on the satellite ground track, but RapidScat's swath will be only 900 km wide, since it is orbiting at a lower altitude (375 - 435 km high versus 800 km for QuikSCAT.) The instrument will be able to "see" with a resolution of up to 12.5 km (7.8 miles.) It completes 15.51 orbits per day, and revisits the same part of the ocean beneath it once every two days. This compares with QuikSCAT, which covered 93% of Earth's surface in 24 hours. The advertised accuracy of RapidScat winds: for wind speeds 7 to 45 miles per hour (3 to 20 meters per second), an accuracy of about 4.5 miles per hour (2 meters per second); for wind speeds of 45 to 70 miles per hour (20 to 30 meters per second), an accuracy within 10 percent; for wind direction, an accuracy of 20 degrees. Precipitation generally degrades the wind measurement accuracy, and accuracy is also reduced at the edge of the swath. Useful data from RapidScat will likely not be available for several months, to allow time for the scientists to validate and calibrate the data being taken. RapidScat's lifetime will be relatively short--just a two-year mission is planned. Scatterometer data is extremely valuable for many aspects of hurricane forecasting, providing early detection of surface circulations in developing tropical depressions, and helping define gale (34 kts) and storm-force (50 kts) wind radii. The information on wind radii from scatterometers is especially important for tropical storms and hurricanes outside the range of aircraft reconnaissance flights conducted in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins, and for the regions where there are no reconnaissance flights (Central Pacific, Western Pacific, and Indian Ocean). Accurate wind radii are critical to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), and Guam Weather Forecast Office (WFO) watch and warning process, since they affect the size of tropical storm and hurricane watch and warning areas. Between 2003 and 2006, QuikSCAT data were used at NHC 17% of the time to determine the wind radii, 21% of the time for center fixing, and 62% of the time for storm intensity estimates.


Figure 2. Artist's rendering of NASA's ISS-RapidScat instrument (inset), which was sent to the International Space Station in September, 2014 to measure ocean surface wind speed and direction and help improve weather forecasts, including hurricane monitoring. It was installed on the end of the station's Columbus laboratory on September 30. Image credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/JSC

Alternatives to RapidScat
There are two alternatives to RapidScat available, but neither are as good. There's the European ASCAT satellite, launched in 2007. ASCAT can measure global wind speed and direction twice per day. However, ASCAT sees two parallel swaths 550 km wide, separated by a 720 km gap, and I find it frustrating to use ASCAT to monitor tropical storms, since the passes miss the center of circulation of a storm of interest more than half the time. On the plus side, ASCAT has the advantage that the data is not adversely affected by rain, unlike RapidScat. The other main alternative, the OSCAT instrument, which was sent into orbit on September 23, 2009, on the ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) Oceansat-2 satellite, suffered an irrecoverable instrument failure on 20 February 2014.The other option is the Windsat instrument aboard the Coriolis satellite (launched in 2003), which measures wind speed and wind direction using a different technique. Evaluation of these data at NHC and NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) shown the winds to be unreliable in and around tropical storms.

Related info
QuikSCAT, 1999 - 2009: R.I.P., my November 24, 2009, blog post.
Giving thanks to the Hurricane Hunters and QuikSCAT scientists, my November 21, 2007 post.
Challenging Bill Proenza's QuikSCAT numbers, my July 4, 2007 blog post.
2007 NOAA QuikSCAT user impact study.


Video 1. ‪RapidScat: NASA's Newest Wind Watcher‬

Quiet in the Atlantic
An area of low pressure (Invest 97L) a few hundred miles north-northwest of Bermuda is under high wind shear and is not likely to develop as it heads north and then north-northeast out to sea. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day odds of development near 0%. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the UKMET model is predicting development of a tropical wave on Sunday in the vicinity of the Cape Verde Islands from a tropical wave predicted to come off the coast of Africa on Saturday morning. The GFS and European models give some lukewarm support to this idea. An upper-level trough of low pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will bring high wind shear to the region early next week, making developing difficult.

Eastern Pacific's Rachel weakening; new tropical disturbance 90E developing
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depresion Rachel has weakened to 35 mph sustained winds, and will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas.

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located a few hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico on Tuesday morning, and was headed west-northwest near 10 mph. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop this week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 90%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week. So far, though, 90E's heavy rains have remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

Tropical Storm Phanfone a potential threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone passed through the Northern Mariana Islands with 50 mph sustained winds on Tuesday morning, and is expected to intensify into a major typhoon, possibly a super typhoon, late in the week. The 00Z Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models show the storm will recurve to the northeast very close to the coast of Japan this weekend.

Jeff Masters

Summer Snow: Record-Early Snowfall Hits Rapid City, South Dakota; Boulder, Colorado; North Platte, Nebraska

By Jon Erdman
Published: September 30,2014



 
September snow blanketed parts of Montana, Wyoming, South Dakota, northern Colorado and western Nebraska, downing trees and set early snow records in some locations, 11 days before summer officially ends.
Thursday morning brought the earliest measurable snow on record to Rapid City, South Dakota, where 1.6 inches was officially measured at the National Weather Service office.
(MORE: The Earliest First Snow of the Season Where You Live)
Rapid City has now had two of its three all-time heaviest snowstorms and its record earliest snow all in a 19-month span since early April 2013. Winter Storm Atlas buried the High Plains in several feet of wind-driven snow in early October 2013.
Snow piled up to 8 inches deep in the Black Hills near Custer, South Dakota and 7 inches of snow was reported at Mt. Rushmore.
Farther west, the snow was even heavier in parts of northern Wyoming, where up to 18 inches was estimated by a SNOTEL station in the Bighorn Mountains southwest of Sheridan. Broken branches, downed trees and power outages littered streets in the city of Buffalo, Wyoming, where 7-8 inches of snow fell.
Early Friday morning, a light dusting of snow was reported in Boulder, Colorado, with a few snowflakes flying over much of the Denver metro area.
While only half an inch was reported at the NWS office in Boulder, this appears to have tied Sep. 12, 1974 for the earliest measurable snow on record in Boulder, dating to 1906.
This early dusting of snow occurred on the one-year anniversary of the destructive Colorado floods of September 2013.
North Platte, Nebraska, also saw its record earliest snow on Sept. 11, just before midnight local time, though only amounting to a trace.
Just over one-half inch of snow was measured in both Casper and Cheyenne, Wyoming, missing their record earliest snow by less than a week.
Tuesday, a section of the Going-to-the-Sun Road in Glacier National Park over Logan Pass was closed by park officials due to snow. Five inches of snow was estimated to have fallen near Logan Pass, according to the National Park Service.
Great Falls, Montana, witnessed its earliest first snow of the season in 22 years Tuesday night. Only six other years since 1892 featured snow before September 9 in Great Falls, according to the National Weather Service.
Multiple rounds of snow were reported across a large part of Canada's Alberta province Monday through Wednesday, including its largest city, Calgary, as temperatures fell below freezing at times.

Another Record Rainfall in Southern France

By: Christopher C. Burt , 8:12PM,GMT on September 30,2014

Another Record Rainfall in Southern France

It is hard to believe that another rainstorm of equal intensity to that which I blogged about just 11 days ago has again struck the Languedoc Region of Southern France. This time the focus of the storm was centered over the city of Montpellier, Herault District, near the Mediterranean Coast.



Rue Broussonnet in Montpellier provided a new definition of ‘car pooling’ during the record-setting deluge Monday afternoon, September 29th when almost 10” of rain fell in three hours. Photo by Benoit from Tournemire.

Montpellier, a city of some 240,000, was deluged with an all-time 24-hour record 299 mm (11.77”) of rainfall between 8 a.m September 29th and 8 a.m. (local time) September 30th. This is the equivalent of almost four times the average monthly precipitation for September in the city. Its previous 24-hour rainfall record was 187 mm (7.36”) on September 22, 2003. Some private weather stations in Montpellier reported totals of up to 325 mm (12.80”) according to a German weather forum monitored by Michael Theusner of Klimahaus in Bremerhaven, Germany.

Of the official 299 mm total in Montpellier, an amazing 184 mm (7.24”) of this fell in just two hours between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. on Monday (September 29th) and 252 mm (9.92”) in three hours from 3 p.m. to 6 p.m. Here is the rainfall by time period beginning the morning of September 29th:



8 am-2 p.m.: 13 mm (0.51”)

2 p.m.-3 p.m.: 17 mm (0.67”)

3 p.m.-4 p.m.: 91 mm (3.58”)

4 p.m.-5 p.m.: 93 mm (3.66”)

5 p.m.-6 p.m.: 68 mm (2.68”)

6 p.m.-7 p.m.: 5 mm (0.20”)

7 p.m.-8 p.m.: 3 mm (0.12”)

8 p.m.-8 a.m. (Sept. 30): 10 mm (0.39”)

Graph and table of hourly (local time) rainfall at Montpellier Airport from Monday morning to Tuesday morning, September 29-30. (Note: the above totals amount to 300 mm instead of the official 299 mm because of rounding of figures. This also applies to totals expressed in inches). Source: Meteo France.

The two-hour total would be a new French national record for rainfall intensity, surpassing the 180 mm (7.09”) measured at Saint-Gervais-sur-Mare just 13 days ago on September 16th! Prior to this month’s extreme rainfalls, the previous greatest two-hour rainfall total observed in France was 178.4 mm (7.02”) at Solenzara on October 26, 1979. However, it should be noted that records in France for short-duration rainfalls only go back to the 1960s or 1970s and do not include every meteorological site in the country. Nevertheless, it is pretty shocking that two such amazing rain events have occurred in the same region over just a two-week period. Fortunately, unlike the September 16-18 event (when four died), it appears that, so far, no known fatalities have occurred with the storm in Montpellier.

The rainfall was concentrated directly over Montpellier as this map of accumulations illustrates:



Map of accumulated rainfall in millimeters for the 48-hour period ending at 6 a.m. UTC September 30th. Montpellier is located in that bull’s eye of 250 mm+ accumulations. The white area below Montpellier is the Mediterranean Sea. Map from Meteo France.

Other rainfall reports from the region were impressive although not close to that of Montpellier:

160 mm (6.30”) at Pezenas

156 mm (6.14”) at Beziers

153 mm (6.02”) at Prades-Le-Lez

124 mm (4.88”) at Narbonne

88 mm (3.46”) at Perpignan



Map of Languedoc-Roussillon region in southwestern France with location of Montpellier and some of the other cities mentioned above.

The storm brought this September’s total rainfall amount to 350 mm (13.78”), which is also a new monthly record (previous record being 293.2 mm (11.54”) in September 2003.

The cause of the intense rainfalls in both cases of September 16-18 and September 29 is an atmospheric set-up that is typical during the autumn in this part of the Mediterranean region (including Spain and Italy): warm, humid air flowing off the Mediterranean Sea collides with cooler dry air emanating from the Alpine region while a cold upper-air low rests over the area. Most of the greatest rainfall events in Spain, France, and Italy have occurred during September and October when this type of scenario is in play.

Meanwhile, the U.K. has wrapped up its driest September on record. More about that later.

KUDOS: Thanks to Michael Theusner of Klimahaus, Bremerhaven, Germany and Maximiliano Herrera for bringing this to my attention.

Christopher C. Burt
Weather Historian

Weather Underground National Forecast for Tuesday,September 30,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on September 29,2014

Weather Underground Forecast for Tuesday,September 30,2014

A low pressure system will move across the Plains on Tuesday, while a coastal system will affect the Southeast.

An area of low pressure will deepen as it lifts northeastward over the western high Plains. As this system interacts with warm, muggy air over the nation’s midsection, strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over the upper Midwest, the northern Plains, the central Plains and the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms will be possible over southeast South Dakota, northeast Nebraska, northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail, dangerous straight line winds and isolated tornadoes. In addition, showers will linger over the Rockies. Light snow accumulations will be possible above 8,000 feet. The tail end of a cold front will also bring rainy weather the Pacific Northwest, while the Southwest will stay mostly clear of precipitation on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will move eastward over the northeast coast of Florida. This system will bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to portions of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also develop along the Gulf Coast due to an onshore flow from the Gulf of Mexico. To the north, a weaker low pressure system will carry light to moderate rain across the Ohio Valley, the eastern Great Lakes, the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England on Tuesday.

Severe Storms Ignite From Texas to Minnesota Tuesday

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist

September 30,2014; 8:45PM,EDT

 

 

The same system that brought severe weather to the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains on Monday will deliver another round of severe storms to the Plains into Tuesday night.
Thunderstorms are set to erupt from eastern South Dakota to the Texas Panhandle Tuesday evening before weakening and tracking eastward during the overnight hours.
Due to the timing of the storms, wind, rain and hail may impact traffic along portions of I-29, I-70, I-35, and I-27 around the same time as the evening commute.
Motorists across this area should stay alert of changing weather and use extra caution when driving through these storms.

Wind gusts exceeding 60 mph and hail as large as golf balls should be expected with thunderstorms that develop across this large swath of the Plains.
A few of the more intense storms in the northern extent of this area may spin up a few tornadoes late in the afternoon with the tornado threat diminishing during the evening.
There is a risk of a thunderstorm reaching Kansas City, Missouri, before the end of Tuesday evening, where the first wild card game of the 2014 MLB post season will take place.
RELATED:
Powerful Autumn Storm to Highlight Midweek Across Central US
AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Center
Interactive Radar
The threat of severe weather in the Plains will not end after Tuesday.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Wednesday afternoon around Kansas and Missouri, then shift eastward from Illinois through Arkansas for Thursday.
Similar threats should be expected both days in terms of severe weather, but Thursday may bring greater impacts as Thursday's storms are forecast to affect a larger area.

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Breaking: Storm Forming in Nation's Midsection

Another winter storm is targeting the Midwest and Northeast.

 

Heavy Rain to Continue in Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay

By Adam Douty, Meteorologist

September 30,2014; 8:44PM,EDT

 

 

Through Wednesday, a series of low pressure systems will traverse central South America bringing locally flooding rainfall to southeastern Brazil, northeastern Argentina and eastern Paraguay.
Low pressure brought downpours Sunday night and Monday to far-southeastern Paraguay, the Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul and the Argentinian province of Misiones. Rainfall has already averaged 25-50 millimeters (1-2 inches) in these areas with localized amounts over 125 millimeters (5 inches).

This first wave of heavy rainfall shifted to the north on Monday causing showers and thunderstorms to spread into Florianopolis and Curitiba. The downpours resulted in some localized flooding, but not the widespread problems which are expected to continue farther south.
The second in a series of low pressure systems will enhance rainfall once again on Tuesday from far-southeastern Paraguay into Rio Grande do Sul. Additional rainfall of 25-75 millimeters (1-3 inches) is expected with this second round of rainfall.
Localized rainfall amounts can exceed 150 millimeters (6 inches) through Wednesday from southeastern Paraguay into Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.
RELATED:
Brazil Weather Center
Current Satellite of South America
Local Forecast for Porto Alegre, Brazil
Because the ground will already be saturated from the first round of rain, additional heavy rain could lead to more widespread flooding concerns.
So far this September, rainfall across the region has been above average with some areas receiving twice their normal rainfall.
By Wednesday, high pressure begins to build across eastern Argentina which will bring heavy rainfall to an end, but a few showers and thunderstorms will still remain. More widespread dry conditions are expected on Thursday.
Meteorologist Eric Leister contributed to this story.

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Breaking: Storm Forming in Nation's Midsection

Another winter storm is targeting the Midwest and Northeast.

 

 

Detroit: Temperature Roller Coaster to Continue

By Brian Lada, Meteorologist

September 30,2014; 8:40PM,EDT

 

 

Temperatures will seem like they are on a roller coaster ride in the Detroit area as we head into the month of October.
Temperatures will trend upwards heading into the second half of the week after peaking near 80 F on Monday and struggling to reach 60 F on Tuesday.
Dry conditions and partial sunshine will accompany this brief warmup, making for good conditions for those planning to spend time in the outdoors.
This includes early-season leaf peepers trying to sneak a glimpse of this year's fall foliage display which typically peaks in early to mid-October in southern Michigan.

Thursday could have some cloudiness with periods of strong sunshine.
Dry weather will not remain through the rest of the week in Detroit as a shower or heavy thunderstorm moves in for Friday.
RELATED:
Detailed Detroit Forecast
AccuWeather Severe Weather Center
Interactive Detroit Radar
After warming into the upper 60s and lower 70s on Thursday and Friday, temperatures will take a dive for the weekend, dropping into the 50s for Saturday.
Showers could linger into Sunday with a slight rise in temperatures back to the low 60s.

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Next Severe Weather Threat to Aim for Kansas City, St. Louis

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 30,2014; 8:40PM,EDT

 

 

Locally damaging thunderstorms may travel across a thousand-mile stretch as a new storm system pushes across the Central states Wednesday through Friday.
After the last gasp from an old storm over the Dakotas produces severe weather Tuesday evening, a new storm system will emerge from the Rockies and swing northeastward during the middle and second half of the week.
The risk of locally gusty thunderstorms on Wednesday will extend from part of northwest Texas to Iowa. The greatest risk of damaging thunderstorms with hail and strong winds will exist across central and eastern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa.

The storm threat includes the major Plains cities of Omaha, Nebraska; Des Moines, Iowa; Kansas City, Missouri; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Wichita and Topeka, Kansas.
According to AccuWeather Severe Storm Meteorologist Eddie Walker, "There is a chance of rotating thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes from central and eastern Kansas to southeastern Nebraska during Wednesday."
In addition to the damaging storm threat, there is the risk of flash flooding as far north as parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin during Wednesday into Wednesday night.
RELATED:
VIDEO: Snow, Hail and Rain Blast Colorado
AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Center
Interactive Radar
During Thursday, the risk of heavy, gusty thunderstorms and incidents of flash flooding will extend from parts of central Texas to northern Illinois. The storms will fire along the storm's advancing cold front.
The greatest risk of thunderstorms with damaging winds is projected to extend from northeastern Texas to central Illinois and southwestern Indiana.

Locally damaging storms on Thursday may impact the cities of Little Rock, Arkansas; Springfield, Missouri; Champaign, Illinois; Terre Haute, Indiana; and St. Louis.
While storms may not be severe in Chicago, locally drenching rain and gusty winds can cause travel delays, including at O'Hare Airport.
On Friday, the cold front will continue to advance to the east and south, and so will the risk of thunderstorms and isolated severe weather.

Showers and thunderstorms will extend from coastal Texas to the Appalachians and southern Ontario during Friday.
The greatest risk of locally strong thunderstorms with drenching rain and gusty winds will extend from western upstate New York to northwestern Georgia and northern Alabama. The storm risk on Friday includes the eastern part of the Ohio Valley.

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San Francisco: Several Hot, Sunny Days Ahead

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

September 30,2014; 8:25PM,EDT

 

 

After a brief reprieve from the heat on Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will again climb into the 80s late in the week in San Francisco.
The hottest day of the week is forecast for Friday, as temperatures climb into the mid-80s with plenty of sunshine. The afternoon will push to close to 15 degrees above normal for this time of the year.
RELATED:
San Francisco Forecast
San Francisco MinuteCast™
Interactive San Francisco Radar
Those spending time outdoors should use caution and apply sunscreen intermittently.

On Sunday, the 49ers will host the Kansas City Chiefs at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. Fans attending the game will have temperatures in the mid-80s for the 1:25 p.m. kickoff.
Overnight lows will hover around the 60-degree mark for the duration of the week.

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Breaking: Storm Forming in Nation's Midsection

Another winter storm is targeting the Midwest and Northeast.

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Dallas: Warm Trend to Continue

By Jillian MacMath, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer

September 30,2014; 8:22PM,EDT

 

 

After a sunny weekend in the upper 80s, even warmer air will surge into Dallas through the first half of the week.
The heat will gradually build each day through Wednesday, before a late-week shower bumps the mercury down slightly.

A couple of thunderstorms will move into the area Thursday afternoon, bringing the only day of precipitation this week.
The wet weather will cool off the remainder of the week, with temperatures falling as much as ten degrees from Thursday to Friday.
RELATED:
Detailed Dallas Forecast
AccuWeather Severe Weather Center
Interactive Dallas Radar
Folks looking to get outdoors may find the most pleasant days spanning the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will bring some reprieve from the heat, with dry conditions and highs pushing into the low to mid-80s.
Overnight lows will be in the high 50s to lower 60s throughout the week.

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Breaking: Storm Forming in Nation's Midsection

Another winter storm is targeting the Midwest and Northeast.

 

New York City metro-area forecast for September 30-November 13,2014 from accuweather.com

Here's the 45-day weather forecast for the New York City metro-area for the period of September 30-November 13,2014 from accuweather.com:








Tonight,September 30-October 1: Remaining mostly cloudy,rainy,and mild to warm,with a chance for a passing rain shower and a low temperature dropping to around 60 degrees,overnight.As of 11:15PM,EDT,it's 60 degrees and cloudy,with 86% humidity,in White Plains,NY,and it's cloudy and in the middle 60's,with 75% humidity,in New York City.

Tomorrow,October 1: October of 2014 begins remaining mainly cloudy,rainy,and mild to warm with occasional rain and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.

Tomorrow night,October 1-2: Remaining mainly cloudy,rainy,and mild with occasional rain and a low temperature dropping to 55-60 degrees,overnight.

Thursday,October 2: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and rather warm for the beginning of October,with occasional morning rain followed by times of afternoon clouds and sun and a high temperature of around 70 degrees.Becoming clear to partly cloudy and cooler than recent nights,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's overnight.

Friday,October 3: Remaining rather warm for early autumn and very early October,with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower and middle 70's.Turning cloudy, rainy,and unseasonably mild to warm,once again,with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping to the upper 50's to lower 60's,overnight.

Saturday,October 4: Turning mostly cloudy and breezy,but remaining rainy and mild to warm with morning rain and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's,once again.Turning clear and much cooler/colder than recent nights,as it turns seasonably cool to chilly for early October,with a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,overnight.

Sunday,October 5: Becoming mostly sunny,breezy,and much cooler than recent days with a high temperature only in the lower and middle 60's.Remaining mainly clear and seasonably cool for early autumn and early October,with a low temperature dropping to the upper 40's to lower 50's,overnight.

Monday,October 6:  Turning partly sunny and warmer with a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower and middle 70's.Becoming mostly cloudy,rainy,and mild for early October,with a chance for a rain shower and a low temperature dropping to the middle 50's,overnight.

Tuesday,October 7: Becoming cloudy and rainy,but remaining unseasonably mild to warm for early October,with spotty rain showers and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's,once again.Not as mild with clearing and a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 8: Remaining mild to warm for early October,with plenty of gorgeous sunshine and a high temperature of 65-70 degrees.Remaining clear and cool to chilly,with a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,once again,overnight.

Thursday,October 9: Remaining mostly sunny and rather warm for early October and early autumn, with a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Remaining clear and rather mild for early October,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's,ovenright.

Friday,October 10: Turning even warmer,as it turns unseasonably warm,once again,for early October and early autumn,with partial sunshine and a high temperature in the lower and middle 70's.Becoming mainly clear,but remaining unseasonably mild with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 50's,once again,overnight.

Saturday,October 11: Remaining rather warm for early October and early autumn with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature in the upper 60's to lower 70's.Turning much colder than recent nights as it turns unseasonably cold for early October,with increasing cloudiness and a chance for spotty late-night chilly rain showers and a low temperature plunging down to the upper 30's to lower 40's,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust past 20-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times,overnight.

Sunday,October 12: Remaining rather cloudy and rainy,but turning much cooler than recent days with intervals of clouds and sun and a chance for a couple of afternoon rain showers and a high temperature of just 60-65 degrees.Turning out clear and cold with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower and middle 40's,once again,overnight.

Monday,October 13: Columbus Day 2014 will be remaining partly sunny,rainy,and seasonably mild for early autumn and early-to-mid October,with a chance for a couple of rain showers and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,once again.Remaining clear and cold for early-to-mid October,with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Tuesday,October 14: Turning sunny,and even cooler,with a high temperature only in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Turning mainly clear and unseasonably very cold for mid-October,with a near record low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 30's,overnight.

Wednesday,October 15: Remaining mostly sunny,raw,and cool,with a high temperature of just 55-60 degrees.Remaining mainly clear and very cold for mid-October,with a low temperature dropping to the middle 30's,once again,overnight.

Thursday,October 16: Turning even cooler,with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature only in the lower and middle 50's.Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,and milder than recent nights with a chance for a little rain and a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Friday,October 17: Becoming mostly sunny,but remaining a bit cool for mid-October,with a high temperature only in the middle and upper 50's.Remaining clear and unseasonably cold for mid-October,with a near record low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,the blustery,biting, northeasterly winds,which could gust up to 20-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only 30-35 degrees,at times,overnight.

Saturday,October 18: Remaining unseasonably cool despite ample sunshine,with a high temperature in the middle 50's yet again.Remaining mainly clear and cold with a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,once again,overnight.

Sunday,October 19: Turning cloudy and milder than recent days with plenty of clouds and a high temperature in the upper 50's to lower 60's.Becoming cloudy and much warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees,overnight.

Monday,October 20: Remaining cloudy,but turning rainy and warmer than recent days with considerable cloudiness and a chance for a little rain and a high temperature in the middle 60's.Remaining cloudy,rainy,and mild,with a chance for rain and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Tuesday,October 21: Remaining mild with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Turning much colder than recent nights with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 22: Turning much cooler than recent days despite brilliant sunshine,with a high temperature only in the lower and middle 50's.Remaining clear and cold with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 30's,overnight.

Thursday,October 23: Becoming partly sunny,but remaining rather cool for very late October with a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's,once again.Remaining partly cloudy and cold with a low temperature dropping to 35-40 degrees,overnight.

Friday,October 24: Turning milder than recent days with times of clouds and sun and a chance for a couple of rain showers and a high temperature of around 60 degrees.Turning cloudy,rainy,and much warmer than recent nights with more rain possible and a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 40-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times,overnight.

Saturday,October 25: Turning cloudy,rainy,very windy,and much warmer than recent days,with periods of rain and a high temperature in the middle 60's,the blustery,gusty easterly winds could gust past 45-mph,at times.Remaining cloudy,rainy,stormy,and unseasonably mild for very late October with showers and thunderstorms possible and a low temperature dropping to around 50 degrees, overnight.

Sunday,October 26: Remaining rather cloudy,rainy,and unseasonably mild for very late October and mid-autumn,with variable cloudiness and a chance for a couple of rain showers and a high temperature in the middle 60's,once again.Becoming mainly clear,but remaining rather mild for mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Monday,October 27: Becoming partly sunny,but remaining unseasonably mild for the end of October,with a high temperature,for the third straight day,in the middle 60's.Remaining unseasonably mild with increasing cloudiness and a low temperature dropping to 45-50 degrees,once again, overnight.

Tuesday,October 28: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and mild with a mix of sun and areas of high morning cloudiness,followed by afternoon cloudiness and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild for the end of October,with a low temperature dropping,for the third straight night,down to 45-50 degrees,overnight.

Wednesday,October 29: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and mild,with plenty of clouds and a chance for a little rain and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,once again.Remaining cloudy,rainy,and unseasonably mild with periods of rain and a low temperature dropping,for the fourth straight night, down to 45-50 degrees,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the lower and middle 30's,at times,overnight.

Thursday,October 30: Remaining cloudy,rainy,and unseasonably mild for the end of October,with considerable cloudiness and a chance for yet more rain and a high temperature in the lower and middle 60's.Becoming clear,but remaining rather mild for mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,once again,like it's 35-40 degrees,at times,overnight.

Friday,October 31: Halloween 2014 will be turning mostly sunny and much cooler/colder than recent days with a high temperature in the lower and middle 50's.Not as mild as recent nights with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,overnight.

Saturday,November 1: November of 2014 begins remaining cool with a mix of sun and some clouds and a high temperature of just 50-55 degrees.Remaining unseasonably mild for mid-autumn with low clouds and a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,the blustery,biting,northwesterly winds, which could gust up to 20-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the middle 30's,at times,overnight.

Sunday,November 2: Becoming rather cloudy,but remaining raw and cool with a high temperature of 50-55 degrees,once again.Becoming partly cloudy and not as mild with a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,the blustery,biting,northeasterly winds,which could gust up to 25-mph,at times, making it feel much colder,like it's only 25-30 degrees,at times,overnight.

Monday,November 3: Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,and windy,but remaining cool for mid-autumn with a chance for a little rain and a high temperature,for the third straight day,of 50-55 degrees.Turning cloudy,rainy,very windy,and mild,with more rain possible and a low temperature dropping to the middle 40's,the blustery,biting,gusty,northeasterly winds,which could gust past 40-mph,at times,making it feel markedly colder,like it's only in the middle and upper 20's,at times, overnight.

Tuesday,November 4: Election Day 2014 will be remaining cloudy and rainy,but turning much milder/warmer than recent days with periods of rain and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees.Remaining mostly cloudy and unseasonably mild for mid-autumn and very early November, with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 40's,once again,overnight.

Wednesday,November 5: Remaining unseasonably mild to warm for early November,with times of clouds and sun and a high temperature of 60-65 degrees,once again.Becoming mainly clear,but remaining rather mild for early November and mid-autumn,with a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 40's,overnight.

Thursday,November 6: Becoming mostly sunny and cooler than recent days with a high temperature in the middle 50's.Becoming mostly cloudy,rainy,and colder than recent nights with a chance for a little rain and a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust up to 15-mph,at times,making it feel even colder,like it's only in the upper 20's to lower 30's,at times,overnight.

Friday,November 7: Turning mostly cloudy,rainy,raw,and rather chilly for early November with a chance for a little morning rain and a high temperature only in the upper 40's to lower 50's.Becoming partly cloudy and colder than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the middle and upper 30's,the blustery,biting,westerly winds,which could gust past 25-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the middle 20's,at times,overnight.

Saturday,November 8: Remaining unseasonably cool for early November and mid-to-late autumn with partial sunshine and a high temperature only around 50 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy and very cold for early November,with a low temperature dropping to 30-35 degrees,the blustery,biting, westerly winds,which could gust up to 20-mph,at times,making it feel downright frigid for mid-to-late autumn,like it's only in the UPPER TEENS to lower 20's above zero,at times,overnight.

Sunday,November 9: Becoming mostly sunny,but remaining unseasonably cool to chilly with a high temperature of just 45-50 degrees.Becoming partly cloudy,but remaining very cold for early November,with a low temperature dropping to 30-35 degrees,once again,overnight.

Monday,November 10: Becoming mostly cloudy,but remaining unseasonably chilly with a high temperature of just 45-50 degrees,once again.Becoming partly cloudy and warmer than recent nights with a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Tuesday,November 11: Veteran's Day 2014 will be turning mostly sunny and not as chilly with a high temperature in the upper 40's to lower 50's.Turning unseasonably mild,once again,with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to 40-45 degrees,the blustery,biting,southwesterly winds,which could gust up to 20-mph,at times,making it feel much colder,like it's only in the lower and middle 30's,at times,overnight.

Wednesday,November 12: Turning warmer than recent days with low clouds and a high temperature of 55-60 degrees.Remaining seasonably chilly to cold for early-to-mid November,with patchy clouds and a low temperature dropping to the upper 30's to lower 40's,overnight.

Thursday,November 13: Remaining unseasonably mild for late autumn and early-to-mid November with partly sunny skies and a high temperature of around 60 degrees.Turning mostly cloudy and rainy,but remaining unseasonably mild for late autumn with a chance for a rain shower and a low temperature dropping to the lower and middle 40's,overnight.

This Date in Weather History for September 30,2014 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Tuesday,September 30,2014

 

 

 

1959 - Three tornadoes spawned by the remnants of Hurricane Gracie killed 12 persons at Ivy VA. (The Weather Channel)

1970 - A nineteen month drought in southern California came to a climax. The drought, which made brush and buildings tinder dry, set up the worst fire conditions in California history as hot Santa Anna winds sent the temperature soaring to 105 degrees at Los Angeles, and to 97 degrees at San Diego. During that last week of September whole communities of interior San Diego County were consumed by fire. Half a million acres were burned, and the fires caused fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1977 - The temperature at Wichita Falls, TX, soared to 108 degrees to establish a record for September. (The Weather Channel)

1986 - Thunderstorms, which had inundated northern sections of Oklahoma with heavy rain, temporarily shifted southward producing 4 to 8 inches rains from Shawnee to Stilwell. Baseball size hail and 80 mph winds ripped through parts of southeast Oklahoma City, and thunderstorm winds caused more than half a million dollars damage at Shawnee. (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms in Michigan produced hail an inch in diameter at Pinckney, and wind gusts to 68 mph at Wyandotte. A thunderstorm in northern Indiana produced wet snow at South Bend. Seven cities in the northwestern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including readings of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 101 degrees at downtown Sacramento CA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Unseasonably warm weather prevailed over Florida, and in the western U.S. The afternoon high of 94 degrees at Fort Myers FL was their tenth record high for the month. Highs of 98 degrees at Medford OR and 99 degrees at Fresno CA were records for the date, and the temperature at Borrego Springs CA soared to 108 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thirteen cities reported record high temperatures for the date, as readings soared into the upper 80s and 90s from the Northern and Central High Plains Region to Minnesota. Bismarck ND reported a record high of 95 degrees, and the temperature reached 97 degrees at Broadus MT. Afternoon thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced wind gusts to 60 mph at Wendover UT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

NYC: Rain to Kick Off Weekend

By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

September 30,2014; 8:36PM,EDT

 

 

After relatively benign weather much of this week, a cool front will approach the New York City area Friday evening with the potential for drenching rain and thunder.
High temperatures each day through Friday will near 70 F, and clouds will limit sunshine most days.
Only spotty shower activity is in the offing until Friday.
From Friday evening into Saturday midday, an approaching cool front can periods of rain and perhaps a heavier thunderstorm.

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Stay alert to rapidly changing conditions by using MinuteCast™ to determine exactly when rain or storms could hit your precise location.
The front is projected to bring locally severe weather to parts of the Central states as it pushes eastward into Friday.
A puff of cool air will follow the front over the weekend. High temperatures both days will be in the upper 60s to near 70. AccuWeather RealFeel® temperatures can dip to near 60 at time during the day, factoring in wind and other conditions.
RELATED:
Detailed AccuWeather Forecast
Interactive New York City Radar
Next Severe Weather Threat to Aim for Kansas City, St. Louis

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World Weather Hot Spot for September 30-October 1,2014 from accuweather.com

Montpellier,France: Extremely heavy rain;received a whopping 11.76 inches of rain on Tuesday (September 30,2014)

Today's Worst Weather for September 30,2014 from accuweather.com

Eagle,Nebraska: Strong Thunderstorms

WeatherWhys for September 30,2014 from accuweather.com

On average, the primary storm track across North America shifts southward as we progress through the fall. In October, the main storm track is still across southern Canada, but by December it shifts into the southern half of the U.S.

Japan Volcano: Search Operation Resumes; Death Toll at 36 Following Mount Ontake Eruption

Associated Press
Published: September 29,2014





Search and rescue operations for people still trapped on Mount Ontake resumed Tuesday, just four days after the volcano erupted unexpectedly.
According to Japanese news network NHK, 180 of the 800 rescuers will be sent to the summit where they will be expected to transport 24 of the unconscious climbers found earlier from the area. The Ground Self-Defense force will further improve the rescue efforts by using large helicopters, something they have not been able to do since the fatal eruption.
NHK reported that the 24 climbers were in cardiac and respiratory arrest, as the climbers cannot be declared dead until officially examined by doctors, per Japanese custom.
Japanese police say the 24 were found near the peak within a shrine and in the surrounding areas, NHK reported.
The eruption of Mount Ontake volcano killed at least 36 people and injured 69 over the weekend, sending a cloud of ash and rocks toward unsuspecting hikers who had no warning of the tragedy about to occur.
Monday's search for additional missing victims was called off due to toxic levels of gas in the air, Reuters reported. Before the search was halted, rescue crews recovered another five bodies on Monday, the report added.
(MORE: Iceland's Volcano Sulfur Fumes Bothering People 800 Miles Away) 
Survivors said the rocks fell "like hailstones," according to the BBC. "The volcanic ash was hurtling so fast I couldn't run away. I'm worried about people still on the mountain," said one survivor in the BBC report.
Together with four victims brought down from the mountain on Sunday, 12 bodies have now been recovered, leaving 24 near the summit. Exactly how they died remains unclear, whether from gases, suffocating ash, falling rocks or other causes.
Japanese TV network TBS showed soldiers carrying yellow body bags one-by-one to a military helicopter that had landed in a relatively wide-open area of the now bleak landscape, its rotors still spinning.
The bodies were flown to a nearby athletic field, the surrounding forested hills contrasting with Mount Ontake's ash-gray peak in the background, a reduced plume still emerging from its crater.
The bodies were then taken to a small wooden elementary school in the nearby town of Kiso, where they were being examined in the gymnasium.
Family members of the missing waited at a nearby municipal hall.
More than 200 soldiers and firefighters, including units with gas detection equipment, were part of the search mission near the peak, said Katsunori Morimoto, an official in the village of Otaki.
The effort was halted because of an increase in toxic gas and ash as the volcano continued to spew fumes, he said.
"It sounds like there is enormous ash fall up there," he said.
The rescuers reported a strong smell of sulfur, Morimoto said.
Saturday's eruption was the first fatal one in modern times at the 10,062-foot mountain, a popular climbing destination 130 miles west of Tokyo. An eruption occurred in 1979, but no one died.
(MORE: Hawaii's Kilauea Volcano Lava Flow Update) 
Japanese media reported that some of the bodies were found in a lodge near the summit and that others were buried in ash up to 20 inches deep.
The mountain erupted shortly before noon at perhaps the worst possible time, with at least 250 people taking advantage of a beautiful fall Saturday to go for a hike. The blast spewed large white plumes of gas and ash high into the sky, blotted out the midday sun and blanketed the surrounding area in ash.
Hundreds were initially trapped on the slopes, though most made their way down by Saturday night.
About 40 people who were stranded overnight came down on Sunday. Many were injured, and some had to be rescued by helicopters or carried down on stretchers.
Japan's Fire and Disaster Management Agency tallied 40 people who were injured, including three seriously, and said it was trying to determine if any people were still missing.
Survivors told Japanese media that they were pelted by rocks from the eruption. One man said he and others went into the basement of a lodge, fearing that the rocks would penetrate the roof. He said he covered himself with a thin mattress for protection.

Tropical Storm Phanfone Nears Guam; Typhoon Threat For Japan?

Jon Erdman and Nick Wiltgen
Published: September 29,2014



 
Tropical Storm Phanfone, formed this past weekend in the western Pacific Ocean, and is gathering strength east-northeast of Guam. Phanfone could eventually pose a threat as a strong typhoon next week. Let's break down what we know now.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Guam Impact

Phanfone is forecast to move northwest over the next several days. First up for Phanfone are the Mariana Islands.
While the center of Phanfone should track north of Guam, a tropical storm warning and a typhoon watch are posted for the northern Mariana Islands including Saipan, Tinian, Pagan, Alamagan and the surrounding waters.
(RECAP: Tropical Storm Halong Hits Guam)
Phanfone may become a typhoon -- the western Pacific Ocean's equivalent of a hurricane -- before clearing the Marianas and moving on to the west-northwest.

Japan Typhoon Threat?

An exceptionally favorable environment of low wind shear and high sea-surface temperatures is anticipated as Phanfone continues to move to the west-northwest this week.
This should allow it to strengthen into a powerful typhoon later this week. A cycle of rapid intensification could occur, given the favorable environmental conditions. As a result, the U.S. military's Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Phanfone to become the equivalent of a Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale later this week.
With the potential for Phanfone to become a very powerful tropical cyclone, the forecast track becomes critical.
(PHOTOS: Mount Ontake Eruption Kills Dozens in Japan)
Official forecasts from JTWC, as well as the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Phanfone gently curving northwestward and northward late this week, toward the end of the 5-day forecast period. This would take it past Iwo Jima and into a region of ocean west of Japan's Izu Islands and east of Japan's Ryukyu Islands, the two main north-south chains of small islands south of the Japanese mainland.
However, there are some key questions and uncertainties about Phanfone's track.
An east-west bubble of high pressure sitting to the north of Phanfone will keep the cyclone on its westward to west-northwestward course over the next few days. Eventually, however, Phanfone may reach a weak spot in that bubble -- and tropical cyclones are often drawn northward in those situations before eventually being forced northeastward by the prevailing westerlies, usually becoming post-tropical systems in the process.
(MORE: Can a Hurricane Turn Into a Typhoon?)
However, if this bubble of high pressure stays relatively strong and the weak spot doesn't materialize, Phanfone may not curve north and norhteast as quickly -- or even at all. The major computer forecast models are not in good agreement on this issue, which becomes a critical question roughly 5 to 7 days from now.
As a result, there are several plausible scenarios, including these:
- Phanfone curves sharply, passing south and east of mainland Japan and brushing the country with high waves and possibly a little bit of rain.
- Phanfone curves north a bit later, too late to miss Japan, and instead slams into the heavily populated Japanese mainland, anywhere from Tokyo in the east westward to Nagoya, Osaka, or Kobe in central Japan, or even Fukuoka in the west.
- Phanfone waits even longer to recurve or stays on a more westerly track altogether, taking it more toward Okinawa, Taiwan, and eventually China.
(MORE: Expert Analysis)
Stay with The Weather Channel and weather.com for more on this potentially dangerous typhoon.

Albuquerque Festival Tent Flattened in Surprise Microburst; Wild Hailstorms Strike Denver

Nick Wiltgen and Jess Baker
Published: September 29,2014



 
A festival tent the size of a professional football field was flattened by an unexpected microburst in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on Monday, injuring the festival's director in one of several powerful thunderstorms to rip across the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

Albuquerque: Destructive Winds Strike Without Warning

The suspected microburst, a highly localized area of powerful winds, struck Albuquerque shortly after 2 p.m. MDT, according to witnesses as well as observations from the Albuquerque International Sunport. A gust of 62 mph was measured at the Sunport, the city's main commercial airport, at 2:06 p.m. MDT.
Just a few miles away, some 40 workers were preparing the site of the annual Rio Grande Arts and Crafts Festival, scheduled to open Friday in southeast Albuquerque. The site includes a large 400-by-100-foot tent where artists and vendors will set up shop during the two-weekend event.
Liz Gore is one of the festival organizers. She told weather.com that she had been taking a photo of the tent's top, with storm clouds on one side of it and sun shining on the other side. Suddenly, the wind picked up dramatically.
"All of a sudden the winds started blowing so hard and the rain was horizontal," she said. "The dirt from the infield was blowing so hard. We probably had 40 people or so working on the site and we ran for cover under the tent."
Within seconds, the tent gave way. "It just tipped and uprooted and everything crashed," Gore said. "There was literally no warning -- everything happened so fast."
"I would guess that [the winds] were 90 mph, at least," she estimated.
The Weather Channel has confirmed that no severe thunderstorm or tornado warnings had been issued by the National Weather Service in Albuquerque prior to the burst of wind, which hit the festival site at approximately 2:10 p.m. The NWS office issued a "significant weather advisory" for 55-mph wind gusts and half-inch-diameter hail at 2:14 p.m. for a "strong thunderstorm 7 miles southeast of Albuquerque" affecting eastern Bernalillo and northern Valencia counties.
"Most of us got knocked down by this gust of wind," Gore said. "I don't remember being hit by anything physically. But I remember looking up and a lot of guys were down on the ground as well. I don't know if a piece of the tent hit us or it was just the wind, it happened so fast."
"I don't have any injuries from anything hitting me," she said.
Her mother, Ruth Gore, was not as fortunate. Ruth Gore, the festival's director, was bleeding from the face. Liz Gore said hail began falling not long after she noticed her mother bleeding.
An ambulance took Ruth Gore to the hospital, where doctors feared internal injuries. By the time Liz Gore spoke to weather.com, her mother had been cleared of any internal injuries and was expected to be released from the hospital with stitches to her face wounds.
Liz Gore said she and her colleagues were fortunate. "Luckily no one was trapped beneath [the tent] or any of the poles."
She said the site gets a windstorm about every other year, usually from strong easterly winds that blow through the nearby Tijeras Canyon. But she said the festival's giant tent had never had a structural problem until Monday's storm.
Once the storm passed, Liz Gore waited for the fire department to remove the collapsed tent canvas from her car and retrieved her phone. She told weather.com that the photos she took -- featured in our storm slideshow below -- were taken only 30 to 40 minutes after the storm, but skies already looked pleasantly sunny by then.
She told us replacement parts for the tent have been ordered and are expected to arrive from Phoenix Tuesday. If that plan comes through, organizers hope to start the festival on time Friday, in tandem with the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta happening at the same time.
Tune to The Weather Channel Tuesday morning when the Gore family will tell their survival story on AMHQ with Sam Champion.

Denver: Rivers of Hail Strike Front Range

An impressive hail storm slammed into the Denver metropolitan area around 2 p.m. MDT, dropping hail as large as golf balls.
Photos posted to social media show what looked like snow, but was actually a thick sheet of hail covering highways and grassy areas. Denver's 9 News reports Cherry Creek schools delayed dismissing students because of the weather.
(MORE: Track the Severe Threat)
As the storms marched east, they congealed into a powerful squall line. A roof was blown off a house in Kit Carson, Colorado, at 6:20 p.m. MDT, according to law enforcement reports relayed to the National Weather Service office in nearby Goodland, Kansas.
A Weather Underground personal weather station in Hugo, Colorado, recorded a 76-mph wind gust at 5:49 p.m. MDT. Another weather observer in rural Cheyenne County, Colorado, reported an 84-mph gust to the National Weather Service at 6:10 p.m. MDT.
In New Mexico, an estimated 75-mph gust was reported in rural Harding County, while a 62-mph gust was reported earlier in the afternoon at Albuquerque International Sunport.
A tornado watch includes parts of northeast Colorado and western Nebraska. The watch is set to expire at 9 p.m. local time. The Denver metropolitan area has been removed from the watch.
A severe thunderstorm watch is also posted for 9 p.m. for portions of southern Colorado and eastern New Mexico into the extreme western Oklahoma and Texas panhandles. Please stay with weather.com for more on this developing weather story.

Invest 97L Spinning Near Bermuda; Phanfone a Potential Threat to Japan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:27PM,GMT on September 29,2014

An area of low pressure (Invest 97L) has formed just west of Bermuda, and is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to the island. At 9:45 am AST Monday, the Bermuda Airport reported a waterspout. Winds have gusted as high as 39 mph on the island this morning, and 0.47" of rain had fallen between midnight at 11 am local time on Monday. Satellite loops and Bermuda radar show that 97L has a pronounced low-level spin, but very little in the way of heavy thunderstorms near the center of circulation. The heaviest thunderstorms were in a band 100 - 150 miles to the northeast of the center, and this structure is characteristic of a subtropical storm, not a tropical storm. With wind shear expected to stay a moderate 15 - 20 knots through Monday night, there is a small window of opportunity for 97L to develop into a subtropical cyclone before wind shear rises to a prohibitive 30 - 45 knots on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 97L 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 30%.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of 97L, taken at approximately 1 pm EDT Monday September 29, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

Eastern Pacific's Rachel no threat
In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Rachel peaked as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds on Sunday morning off the Pacific coast of Baja Mexico, and is now on a weakening trend due to steadily increasing wind shear. Rachel will move little this week and dissipate without affecting any land areas. Rachel's formation gives the Eastern Pacific east of 140°W 17 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes so far this year. An average Eastern Pacific hurricane season sees 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes during the entire year, with three of those named storms and one hurricane occurring after September 25.

Another area of disturbed weather (Invest 90E) was located near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday morning, and was headed slowly west-northwest to northwest. This disturbance has good support from all three of our top tropical cyclone genesis models to develop late this week. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 70%, respectively. 90E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico throughout the week.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Rachel, taken at approximately 6 pm EDT Sunday September 28, 2014. At the time, Rachel was a Category 1 storm with top sustained winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Phanfone a potential threat to Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Phanfone is steadily intensifying as it heads west-northwest at 13 mph towards the Northern Mariana Islands. Phanfone is expected to be near Category 1 typhoon strength when is passes about 250 miles north of Guam near 18 UTC on Tuesday. The storm is expected to intensify into a major typhoon, possibly a super typhoon, late in the week, and the 00Z Monday run of the GFS model shows the storm coming very close to the coast of Japan this weekend.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has a more detailed look at 97L in his Monday afternoon post.

Jeff Masters

Weather Underground National Forecast for Monday,September 29,2014

By: nationalsummary , 10:00PM,GMT on September 28,2014

Weather Underground Forecast for Monday,September 29,2014

 

A low pressure system will continue to inch across the western half of the country on Monday, while a trough of low pressure will affect the Gulf Coast.

A strong low pressure system will continue to make its way eastward over the Intermountain West. As this system interacts with moisture over the region, widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the high Plains, the Intermountain West and parts of the Desert Southwest. This system is also expected to usher rain across the Great Basin, while high elevation snow showers will be possible over the Rockies. Along the West Coast, a cold front will approach the Pacific Northwest. This system will push rainy weather over western Oregon and western Washington. A ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will keep condition clear across California and Arizona on Monday.

Meanwhile, a trough of low pressure will shift eastward over the eastern Gulf Coast. This system will initiate strong thunderstorms across the central and eastern Gulf Coast, as well as the Southeast. Heavy rain associated with these thunderstorms will bring a chance of flash flooding to northern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. High pressure will keep conditions mostly clear over the western Gulf Coast, the Mississippi Valley and the Northeast. The exception to this will be across the upper Midwest, the Great Lakes and northern New England, as showers are forecast to develop along a frontal boundary sinking southward from Canada.