Maybe snow on the ground is among your Christmas wishes this year.
Our latest white Christmas forecast is shown on the map below. Meteorologists define a white Christmas as one in which there is at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. It doesn't have to be snowing on the holiday for that to happen, of course.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)
White Christmas Forecast
(MORE: Your Typically Snowiest Month | Your Coldest Time of Year)
Furthermore, an active jet-stream track along that cold air may provide multiple chances of additional snowfall through the holiday.
(NATIONAL DAILY FORECAST MAPS: Rain/Snow | Highs and Low Temperatures)
How Typical is a White Christmas?
The map below indicates where there is the best chance for a white Christmas in any given year, based on climatological averages over the last three full decades.
Historical chance of a white Christmas in any given year, based on 1981-2010 data. You may be surprised to see there isn't a lot of territory outside the mountain West, northern New England and the far northern tier where the chance of a white Christmas is better than 50/50.
Christmas 2015 was particularly "brown" in typically snowy parts of the Great Lakes and northern New England.
Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, had only its third Christmas without any snow cover in records dating to 1931.
No natural snow cover was detected on Christmas morning in the Adirondacks, Green or White Mountains in 2015.
Snow depth analysis on Christmas Day 2015. Much of the East and Great Lakes lacked snow cover in 2015.On average, about 38 percent of the Lower 48 States has snow on the ground on Christmas Day, according to 13 years of data compiled by NOAA's National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC).
Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from just over 21 percent in 2003 to a whopping 63 percent of the contiguous U.S. in 2009.
Yes, It's Happened in the South
Christmas snow cover isn't just a northern thing. Some years, parts of the southern U.S. have marveled at the sight of a white Christmas.(MORE: 5 Weirdest White Christmases)
Southern cities that have observed at least one white Christmas in their recorded history.(Data: NWS/NOWDATA)
- 2009: Oklahoma City's snowstorm of record (13.5 inches) and one of only two white Christmases on record in Dallas (2 inches).
- 2004: Snowstorm of record in Corpus Christi, Texas (4.4 inches) and first day of measurable snow since 1895 in Brownsville, Texas (1.5 inches), which is the same latitude as Miami.
- 1989: A pre-Christmas snow followed by a bullish Arctic cold outbreak gave both Charleston, South Carolina (4 inches), and Savannah, Georgia (2 inches), their only white Christmas. Jacksonville, Florida, missed a white Christmas by one day, with an inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Eve morning.
Regional Historical Odds
In case you're curious, here are various white Christmas statistics, including the yearly probability, the number of white Christmases in each city's historical record, the last white Christmas, and the most snow on the ground on Christmas morning.All statistics are courtesy of the National Weather Service.
Northeast
| Avg. Percent Chance | Number of White Christmases | Last White Christmas (Depth) | |
| Albany, NY | 37 | 33 since 1938 | 2009 (1 inch) |
| Baltimore | 10 | 15 since 1905 | 2009 (6 inches) |
| Boston | 8 | 27 since 1872 | 2009 (4 inches) |
| Buffalo, NY | 60 | 71 since 1893 | 2013 (2 inches) |
| Burlington, VT | 63 | 71 since 1896 | 2014 (2 inches) |
| Caribou, ME | 87 | All but 6 since 1940 | 2015 (3 inches) |
| Concord, NH | 64 | All but 22 since 1942 | 2014 (2 inches) |
| New York City | 10 | 15 since 1912 | 2009 (2 inches) |
| Philadelphia | 7 | 7 since 1948 | 2009 (8 inches) |
| Pittsburgh | 33 | 20 since 1948 | 2010 (2 inches) |
| Providence, RI | 15 | 48 since 1904 | 2009 (5 inches) |
| Syracuse | 63 | 55 since 1922 | 2013 (3 inches) |
| Washington | 7 | 13 since 1893 | 2009 (7 inches) |
Midwest
| Avg. Percent Chance | Number of White Christmases | Last White Christmas (Depth) | |
| Chicago | 43 | 53 since 1884 | 2010 (5 inches) |
| Cincinnati | 20 | 16 since 1916 | 2010 (4 inches) |
| Cleveland | 50 | 51 since 1893 | 2013 (1 inch) |
| Detroit | 43 | 28 since 1948 | 2012 (1 inch) |
| Indianapolis | 30 | 33 since 1898 | 2010 (5 inches) |
| Louisville | 17 | 17 since 1900 | 2010 (1 inch) |
| Marquette, MI | 93 | All but 4 since 1948 | 2014 (18 inches) |
| Milwaukee | 43 | 61 since 1893 | 2013 (10 inches) |
| St. Louis | 33 | 21 since 1893 | 2010 (3 inches) |
Plains
| Avg. Percent Chance | Number of White Christmases | Last White Christmas (Depth) | |
| Bismarck, ND | 80 | All but 15 since 1948 | 2015 (5 inches) |
| Des Moines, IA | 40 | 37 since 1939 | 2015 (1 inch) |
| Duluth, MN | 97 | All but 4 since 1916 | 2015 (5 inches) |
| Kansas City | 23 | 25 since 1893 | 2013 (4 inches) |
| Mpls./St. Paul | 80 | 84 since 1899 | 2013 (9 inches) |
| Omaha, NE | 37 | 25 since 1948 | 2015 (7 inches) |
| Pierre, SD | 57 | 43 since 1941 | 2015 (2 inches) |
| Wichita, KS | 27 | 13 since 1951 | 2013 (2 inches) |
West
| Avg. Percent Chance | Number of White Christmases | Last White Christmas (Depth) | |
| Anchorage | 93 | All but 3 since 1953 | 2015 (2 inches) |
| Billings, MT | 37 | 38 since 1937 | 2015 (2 inches) |
| Boise, ID | 37 | 19 since 1940 | 2015 (1 inch) |
| Casper, WY | 43 | 27 since 1948 | 2015 (2 inches) |
| Denver | 68 | 31 since 1921 | 2015 (1 inch) |
| Fairbanks, AK | 100 | All but 1 since 1929 | 2015 (12 inches) |
| Great Falls, MT | 43 | 39 since 1933 | 2015 (3 inches) |
| Salt Lake City | 67 | 36 since 1948 | 2015 (1 inch) |
| Spokane, WA | 67 | 64 since 1893 | 2015 (11 inches) |
| Tahoe City, CA | 86 | All but 12 since 1938 | 2015 (17 inches) |
South
| Avg. Percent Chance | Number of White Christmases | Last White Christmas (Depth) | |
| Amarillo, TX | 20 | 7 since 1948 | 2009 (1 inch) |
| Knoxville, TN | 4 | 5 since 1910 | 2010 (2 inches) |
| Little Rock, AR | 3 | 4 since 1876 | 2004 (1 inch) |
| Lubbock, TX | 7 | 4 since 1911 | 2011 (2 inches) |
| Memphis, TN | 7 | 4 since 1928 | 2004 (2 inches) |
| Nashville, TN | 5 | 5 since 1948 | 2010 (1 inch) |
| Oklahoma City | 7 | 3 since 1951 | 2009 (14 inches) |
| Richmond, VA | 4 | 6 since 1897 | 2009 (2 inches) |
| Roanoke, VA | 13 | 14 since 1935 | 2009 (5 inches) |
| Tulsa, OK | 13 | 5 since 1948 | 2009 (6 inches) |
No comments:
Post a Comment