WeatherFanatics: Tropical Trouble in West Pacific This Week

Monday, July 28, 2014

Tropical Trouble in West Pacific This Week

By Eric Leister, Meteorologist

July 28,2014; 9:15PM,EDT

Fresh on the heels of Typhoon Matmo, portions of Eastern Asia will need to keep an eye on a developing cyclone currently spinning in the Western Pacific Ocean.
This large area of low pressure currently sits several hundred miles east of the northern Philippines producing widespread showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds.
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized around this large area of low pressure, preventing development into a named cyclone at this time.

This satellite image, courtesy of UW-CIMSS, shows a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of the Philippines Monday night, local time. Development into a named cyclone is expected in the next 24 to 48 hours.
This feature is currently over an area of very warm water; however, moderate easterly wind shear combined with the large size of the unsettled weather has hampered development thus far.
Wind shear is expected to weaken later this week as the low moves northwest, allowing further development and strengthening as it moves toward Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan.
RELATED:
West Pacific Typhoon and Tropical Storm Center
Taiwan Weather Center
China Weather Center
Anyone living in or visiting areas from Taiwan, through eastern China and the Ryukyu Islands of Japan should closely monitor this potential cyclone as heavy rain and locally damaging winds are possible later this week.

Current forecasts are for the developing cyclone to move northwest, tracking between Taiwan and Okinawa from Thursday into Friday before reaching the east coast of China by the weekend.
While the future intensity of cyclone remains unclear due to the amount of wind shear it will encounter along its northwest track, heavy rainfall and flooding are expected regardless of strength.
With the status of this developing complex subject to change, please be sure to check with the West Pacific Typhoon and Tropical Storm Center for the latest information.
Another area of concern is Tropical Depression 11W which formed Monday to the east of Guam. A general west to northwest track of this depression will bring heavy rain and tropical storm conditions to Guam Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Wednesday night, local time.
4-8 inches of rain with locally higher amounts could lead to flooding across Guam and the surrounding Mariana Islands just to the north. Tropical storm force winds with gusts between 40-60 mph may cause some power outages and some instances of damage.

The above satellite image shows Tropical Depression 11W just southeast of Guam Tuesday, local time. Courtesy of NOAA.
Slow strengthening is expected as the depression moves northwestward, and it could reach tropical storm strength before moving through the Mariana Islands just north of Guam.
In the longer range, this cyclone could target areas from Taiwan to Japan next week.

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