By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
March 17,2014; 6:16PM,EDT
A larger version of this graphic appears later on in the story.
On average, severe weather gradually ramps up moving forward through the spring. This year, the transition may occur later and may be more dramatic.
A spike in damaging thunderstorms, including some capable of producing tornadoes, is expected during May and June.
Early Season Temperature Extremes
According to AccuWeather Long Range Weather Expert Paul Pastelok, "We expect a southward dip in steering-level winds to occur much of the time over a large part of the Midwest to the Eastern states during March and the first part of April."This dip of strong winds high in the atmosphere, known as a jet stream trough, will generally keep warm, moist air at bay from near the Mississippi River to the Atlantic coast.
Last year, a similar setup occurred in much of the same area during the spring and led to a much lower-than-average severe weather season for the nation as a whole.
Thunderstorms are fueled by rising warm, moist air. As a general rule, the lower the temperature near the ground, the lower the risk for tornadoes and violent thunderstorms.
"This year, the ground is colder, the Great Lakes have an extensive amount of ice and the Gulf of Mexico waters are starting off colder than average," Pastelok said. "All of these can have a negative impact on temperatures in the lower atmosphere."
Over much of the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast, the tornado risk will be lower than average early on due to the colder-than-average environment expected.
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According to Severe Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "As a positive note, we may not see the frequency and violence of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes that typically occur during March and much of April, because of the lingering chill impacting a significant part of the nation."
However, Kottlowski urged caution when comparing overall numbers of tornado and other severe weather incidents to other seasons.
"This is not to say there cannot be a couple of outbreaks of severe weather during the first part of the spring in portions of the Midwest, the South and even the Northeast," Kottlowski said. "People should not let their guard down."
Even during a minor severe weather event, all it takes is one tornado hitting a populated area to bring the potential for great loss of life and destruction.
Strong storm systems can exploit temperature extremes. These storms can allow building warm, moist air to surge in just long enough to trigger an outbreak of severe weather in an otherwise, predominately cool weather pattern.
In portions of Texas, Oklahoma, western Arkansas and western Louisiana, Kottlowski and Pastelok both expect warmth to build quickly relative to the balance of the Central and Eastern states.
The AccuWeather long-range team has concerns for flooding over part of the Tennessee and Ohio valleys with this setup, however. Weakening thunderstorms could unload heavy rain as they move farther east and unwind in the semi-permanent cooler air.
Dramatic Pattern Change Later in Spring
Pastelok and Kottlowski expect the pattern from the Mississippi Valley to the East to change significantly during May and June and correspondingly expect a spike in severe weather incidents to progress northward and eastward.
"We expect a normal to perhaps an above-average amount of severe thunderstorms over the Central states during May and June," Kottlowski said.
Indications are that the jet stream will pull to the north during May and June and hence will allow warm, moist air to flow northward more regularly over the Midwest.
"While warmth combined with drier air may keep a lid on severe weather for a time in the East during May, the air should be thoroughly warm and moist over much of the Midwest and South Central states," Pastelok said.
Areas from the Dakotas and Minnesota to Wisconsin, Michigan, the Appalachians and Atlantic coast should experience surge of severe weather during June and July.
A significant number of severe weather events are likely to continue to occur over the balance of the Midwest and South Central states and expand to along the Rockies as spring draws to a close and summer begins.
On Social Media
Patricia Longfellow
sjpat3
Well, there's this MT @breakingweather Lingering chill in Mar, early Apr will suppress severe storms & tornadoes. ow.ly/uvAnJ
Andrew Krietz
akrietz
A glimpse into spring? | Severe Storm and Tornado Threat to Spike in May, June accuweather.com/en/weather-new… #wmiwx
GOLF COURSE INDUSTRY
GCImagazine
Accuweather reporting a spike in sever thunderstorms and potential tornadoes as part of its spring forecast. bit.ly/O1Qgn9
Mar 13- Derek Baker · Top Commenter · Milton, OntarioUmmm...Buck. Are you not aware of how many people survived the May 20, 2013 Newcastle-Moore EF-5 tornado because of the watches, warnings, and the "tornado emergency" issued that day. Depend on where they lived, residents had anywhere from 12 to 30 minutes warning that a tornado was approaching them. The residents also has NWS Doppler Radar tracking the tornado's development, then its trajectory after it touched down, so everyone knew whether they were in grave danger or not. Thanks to the information available from the NWS, a large number of people were able to get to their shelter or a neighbour's shelter, or drive out of the path, thanks to the NWS. Just that one day alone made the NWS budget more than worthwhile!
Jammee Cobb · FollowIt also needs to be said that thanks to the efforts of the NWS and local news the entire state of oklahoma knew days, over a week in advance, that there was all the elements in place for some extreme severe weather. People had the opportunity, the uber advance warning, to stay home from work, keep kids home, etc..in the effort to protect their families. The science of forecasting weather gives the term "Educated Guess" a whole new meaning. They can't ever be expected to be perfect or right all the time. I commend their efforts and know that they saved a lot of lives during those 2 terrifying weeks in Oklahoma, May 2013.
Cynthia Bemis · Top Commenter · Enid High School
Buck Jordan · SUNY ESF SyracuseWe could eliminate the NWS, save a bunch of money and never now the difference.
Zion MoulderSure. As long as you don't depend on watches, warnings, and advisories on a day to day basis. You know what? Let's eliminate NOAA too. Their crucial weather data isn't used by the general population. Who needs advancements in meteorology? Let's hand it over to a greedy corporation like The Weather Channel.
William Smith · Top Commenter · Inventory at Rem Bar
James StahrAlways peddling fear.
Betty Bernard · Top Commenter · Weston High School, Weston, WV
Robert Beal · Computer Technician at QuadcomputersIt's the end of the world! After these destructive storms arrive in May and June; hurricane force storms carrying massive ice pellets will strike during July and August; followed by early winter snow storms in September. By December 68% of the country will be under sub-zero temperatures with a possible increase in warmer temperatures by early Spring 2015. Now for today's in depth weather forecast...."standby while I open a window".....looks mostly overcast with a chilly cool temperature....
Joseph Michael MillerIs it ever going to end,snow,ice?
Sarah Leggs · Top CommenterWell, we really don't need the severe weather, but I'm glad they see there is a pattern change. A good portion of the country could use some good rain......and I loooooove thunderstorms!
Tommy Simonic · Peabody High SchoolThis are the same people who said it would be a mild winter.im just gonna go day by day when it cames to the weather.- Cynthia Bemis · Top Commenter · Enid High School
Grant McGuire · Top Commenter · Western Connecticut State UniversityI'm not buying the warm-up in the East. Unless we have a storm of hurricane proportions, this uber-cold pattern will never end.- Cynthia Bemis · Top Commenter · Enid High Schoolas they say around here spring either comes in like a lamb and goes out like lion, or in like a lion and out like a lamb. . I guess this year it will be the former cause spring is sure getting off to a late start here. Thanks guys, you're awesome!
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