Saturday, January 14, 2017

Winter Storm Jupiter: Expansive, Multi-Day, Damaging Ice Storm Underway in the Plains, Midwest

January 14,2017
Winter Storm Jupiter's long-anticipated ice storm phase is kicking into high gear, poised to be a damaging event in parts of the Plains and Midwest through Monday. Another burst of freezing rain and rain will intensify by early afternoon on Saturday in the southern Plains.
(MORE: How Winter Storms Are Named | Winter Storm Central)
Ice storm warnings are in effect for portions of the Texas panhandle, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois for what, in some areas, may end up being a crippling ice storm with widespread tree damage and power outages.
Freezing rain advisories stretch into the Ohio Valley and Appalachians, for lighter ice accumulations still capable of producing slippery travel. Travel will also be dangerous in portions of north Texas.
Winter storm watches are also posted to the north and west of the ice storm warnings, including much of eastern Colorado, Nebraska and Iowa. A mix of snow, sleet and/or freezing rain will be possible later this weekend into early next week.
(MORE: 5 Things to Know About Ice Storms)

Winter Weather Alerts

Latest Reports

As of early Saturday morning, a half inch of freezing rain was reported in Desloge, Missouri which is south of St. Louis. In addition, two deaths have been reported due to icy roads.
(NEWS: Latest Jupiter Impacts in Each State)
During the day on Friday, over 100 reports of freezing rain and ice accumulations had come in from Oklahoma to western Kentucky and southwest Indiana.
Trees were downed and power outages reported in Springfield, Missouri, where about one-quarter inch of ice accumulation was observed by midday. Not far from Springfield, more than half of an inch of ice had accumulated in Aldrich, Missouri.
(INTERACTIVE: Radar | Storm Reports)
Ice had already begun to accumulate on some surfaces in Carbondale, Illinois, Joplin, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma, among other locations. Tree damage was observed as far east as Carterville, Illinois.
Tree damage from accumulated ice in Carterville, Illinois, on January 13, 2017, during Winter Storm Jupiter.
(John Chaney)
Some cloud-to-ground lightning strikes were detected along the Interstate 44 corridor of far northeast Oklahoma and southern Missouri early Friday.
In Oklahoma, Gov. Mary Fallin declared a state of emergency for all counties as residents prepare for the ice storm.

Current Radar, Temperatures, Conditions
We have a complete rundown of notable winter storm reports after our forecast section below. For more on the flooding in California, check out our flood recap piece.

Ice Setup

The setup for the potential ice storm is a familiar one in January. Namely, warmer, more moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is gliding over subfreezing air near the ground over the Plains, Midwest and Northeast.
(MORE: Five Reasons Why Freezing Rain Really Is The Worst)

Ingredients for a Potential Ice Storm
Let's start with the ice (and High Plains snow) timeline.

Saturday

  • Widespread freezing rain will extend from the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, especially during the afternoon and into Saturday night.
  • Parts of the mid-Atlantic states will see a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. 
  • Ice accumulations will likely become damaging to trees and power lines, triggering power outages in the Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley.
  • Snow will continue in the southern Rockies and Four Corners.

Saturday's Outlook

Sunday

  • Sleet/ice threat will spread north into Nebraska and Iowa, but persist from the central and southern Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley.
  • Ice accumulations may become crippling in the central Plains, with the potential for widespread power outages, numerous trees downed and paralyzed travel.
  • The ice threat will continue to spread north into the upper Midwest Sunday night.
  • Some southernmost ice areas may change to rain by Sunday night.
  • Some light snow, sleet or ice may move back into parts of the mid-Atlantic states Sunday night. 
  • Heavy snow will develop on the western edge of this precipitation area, where colder air is deeper, in the Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
(MORE: Chiefs-Steelers NFL Divisional Playoff Game Might Be Put on Ice)

Sunday's Outlook

Monday

  • With warmer air pushing northward, the area of ice threat also pushes farther north into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.
  • However, some sleet or ice may persist for a time in parts of the central Plains, compounding ice accumulation from the weekend, before possibly changing to snow or ending late Monday.
  • Some patchy freezing rain is also possible in parts of the interior Northeast.
  • A pocket of snow should persist and spread north from the High Plains of Colorado to South Dakota.

Monday's Outlook

Tuesday

  • Snow, sleet or freezing rain may persist in parts of the upper Midwest, northern Great Lakes, interior Northeast and northern New England into Tuesday night.
  • Other areas should be mainly rain.
(MAPS: 7-Day Rain/Snow U.S. Forecast)

Tuesday's Forecast

Forecast Ice Impacts

Hazardous Travel, At Least

The entire ice threat area specified above, from the Plains to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic states should experience hazardous roads, particularly untreated roads, bridges and overpasses.
By later Sunday or Monday, the most southern ice areas may see a changeover to rain, helping to thaw out any frozen roads.

City Forecasts Over the Next 24 Hours

Damage/Power Outage Potential

The longevity of freezing rain is likely to lead to damaging impacts in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri Valley and mid-Mississippi Valley, including:
  • Downed trees and power lines
  • Power outages, some of which lasting for days
More than a three-quarters of an inch of ice may accumulate in the hardest hit areas in the central Plains.

Winter Storm Jupiter Icing Potential
In the ice accumulation forecast above, the following definitions are used:
  • Glaze: Hazardous travel, spotty power outages
  • Damaging: Some tree damage, numerous power outages
  • Crippling: Widespread tree damage, long-term power outages
Unlike many Plains winter storms, winds should be relatively tame during this event. However, by Sunday night into Monday, some 10 to 15 mph winds in the worst ice-affected areas would add stress to ice-loaded trees and power lines.

Snow Forecast

The best chance of at least 6 inches of snow, possibly mixed with sleet or on top of any initial ice accumulations, is from the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of northern New Mexico to the High Plains of eastern Colorado.
Lighter totals are expected to the northeast of that from western Kansas and western Nebraska into South Dakota and western Minnesota, as well as in the Denver metro area.
Some light accumulations of snow are also possible in parts of the Mid-Atlantic states, including Washington D.C.Baltimore and New York City.

Winter Storm Jupiter Snowfall Forecast
For now, here are some preparedness suggestions in areas we're most concerned about damaging ice accumulation (central Plains, lower Missouri Valley, mid-Mississippi Valley):
  • Be prepared to change travel plans. Roads may become impassable and flights may be canceled.
  • Consider alternate sources to heat your home, in case power is out for an extended period of time.
  • Consider pruning limbs or removing trees leaning toward your home. 
  • Charge cell phones prior to the storm, in case of an extended power outage. 
  • Ensure flashlights have fresh batteries.
  • Consider a cooler with ice to keep refrigerated items cold, in case of a power outage. 
(MORE: Worst U.S. Ice Storms)

Storm Recap

Up to 15.5 inches of snow was measured in the Portland, Oregon, metro area, beginning Tuesday night into Wednesday, accompanied by thundersnow with rates of up to 4 inches per hour.
According to the National Weather Service, Jupiter was the single biggest snowstorm for many in the metro area in almost 22 years, since a 12-inch snowstorm hammered the city two days before Valentine's Day, 1995.
The weight of this snow downed trees, and numerous vehicles were abandoned on metro streets and freeways.
(NEWS: Thousands Without Power, Hundreds of Cars Abandoned in Oregon)
Since the morning of Jan. 9, parts of the Sierra have picked up almost 80 inches of snow. In Kingvale, California, almost 5 feet of snow fell in 24 hours ending 7 a.m. PST Wednesday.
(LATEST NEWS: Sierra Buried By Feet of Snow)
The combination of this dumping of snow and strong winds Tuesday prompted closure of stretches of Interstate 80, U.S. 50 and California Highway 88 over the Sierra. According to the NWS in Sacramento, the last closure of this magnitude on Interstate 80 over Donner Summit was in March 2011.
In fact, going back over a seven-day period, parts of the Sierra have picked up an almost unfathomable 12 feet of snow, during what the NWS in Reno is calling the biggest Sierra snowstorm in six years.
(MORE: Too Much Snow Shut Down Some Resorts)
The pure volume of snow lead to several avalanches, including a controlled avalanche impacting about a dozen homes in Alpine Meadows, California. Residents of Crystal Bay and Incline Village were asked to shelter in place due to the avalanche threat.
A small avalanche prompting closure of the only plowed road to Crater Lake National Park in southwest Oregon.
Another avalanche also impacted a dozen homes Tuesday in the Greater Lake Tahoe area.
Additionally, heavy snow pounded parts of the Great Basin and Rockies.
The town of Hill City, Idaho, picked up at least 26 inches of snow in 24 hours, with snow so deep, ski lift chairs were said to be dragging in the snow, according to a local media report to the NWS in Boise early Wednesday.
If that all wasn't impressive enough, an EF0 tornado touched down around midnight Wednesday morning near Arco Arena in Sacramento, downing trees and fences and twisting metal awnings.      

Snow and Ice Reports

Here are some selected ice reports from Winter Storm Jupiter.
Illinois: 0.37 inches of sleet and freezing rain near Maeystown and 0.25 inches in Hoyleton and Waterloo
Kansas: 0.09 inches in Chanute
Kentucky: 0.10 inches in Sturgis
Missouri: 0.50 inches in Desloge and up to 0.75 inches on elevated surfaces in Aldrich
Oklahoma: 0.28 inches in Bartlesville
Here are some selected snowfall reports from Winter Storm Jupiter.
California: 79 inches at Soda Springs and Kingvale
Idaho: Estimated 71.4 inches at the Galena Summit SNOTEL station; Ski lift chairs were dragging in the snow at the Soldier Mountain Ski Area.
Montana: 10 inches near Cooke City
Nevada: 54 inches in 48 hours at Diamond Peak Ski near Incline Village
Oregon: 20 inches near La Pine; 15.5 inches just west of downtown Portland; 13 inches in downtown Portland
Washington: 14 inches near Yacolt
Wyoming: 94.5 inches near Encampment at the Old Battle Snotel (total from Sunday morning to Thursday morning)
     
Check weather.com frequently for the latest updates on this system.
MORE: Winter Storm Jupiter, January 2017 (PHOTOS)

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