Winter Misery Index: Who's Had It the Worst?

Brian Donegan
Published: January 26,2017
The final month of meteorological winter (December-February) begins next week, and some cities have had plenty of miserable cold and snowy weather, while others haven't had much of a winter at all.
(MORE: Most of U.S. Has Passed Coldest Time of Year)
According to the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, or AWSSI, more than a dozen locations across the nation have seen a severe or extreme season of cold and snow. All but one are west of the Mississippi River.
The index takes into account the "intensity and persistence of cold weather, the frequency and amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground," the Midwest Regional Climate Center says. Wind and mixed precipitation, such as freezing rain, are not a part of the index.
For any given location, the start date of the winter season is defined as when the first measurable snowfall occurs, or when the first high temperature 32 degrees or lower is recorded. The start date is Dec. 1 for any location that does not see either of those happen prior to that date.
(MORE: The Heaviest Snowfall Records in the U.S.)
The index uses five categories – mild, moderate and average to severe and extreme – to rate the severity of winter weather at any given point in the season.

AWSSI national index values as of early Jan. 26, 2017. City locations color-coded based on severity of winter, as shown by legend at left.
(Dr. Barbara Mayes Boustead and Steven Hilberg)

"The categories are site-specific ... because what constitutes a severe winter, say, in Washington D.C. or Atlanta would be considered mild in Chicago or Minneapolis," said Dr. Barbara Mayes Boustead, a co-creator of AWSSI, and a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Omaha, Nebraska.
Across the northern tier of the Lower 48, 11 cities have had extreme winter weather conditions as of early Jan. 26, according to the index, but many more have had mild winter conditions, especially across the Midwest, South and East. Note that mild doesn't just refer to temperatures, but winter weather conditions have been mild compared to average, based on the index's factors mentioned above.
Let's take a look at some individual cities and see just how harsh or mild their winter has been through this point in time.
(MORE: Portland, Oregon, May Be America's Most Winter-Fatigued City in 2016-17)

The Worst: Northwest

Well-above-average snowfall played a role in the extreme winter misery two Northwest cities have seen so far. Temperatures have been below average for much of December and January, as well.

• Pendleton, Oregon: This northeast Oregon city was 21.3 inches above average in the snowfall department as of Jan. 25, with a seasonal total of 31.9 inches. Pendleton only averages 15.3 inches of snow in an entire winter, based on 1981-2010 averages, so they have already doubled that number. A chunk of its snowfall came from Winter Storm Jupiter during Jan. 10-11, which dumped 8.4 inches of snow in those two days. The 5.5 inches that accumulated on Jan. 10 alone was a record snowfall for that date. The winter season severity index has been in the extreme category since Dec. 12.
• Walla Walla, Washington: Not far behind Pendleton is its neighbor to the north, with 25.9 inches of snow as of Jan. 25, or 18.6 inches above average.

The black line shows the quick rise into the "extreme" category in Pendleton, Oregon, on the AWSSI, due to the cold and snowy conditions so far this winter.

Mild to Moderate: Much of the East

A lack of persistent cold and snow have played a role in the mild winter conditions two eastern cities have seen, especially in January.

• Syracuse, New York: After spending Nov. 20 through all of December in the severe and extreme categories on the severity index, the snowiest large city in the United States was downgraded into the average category on Jan. 12 and improved to moderate by Jan. 24. Winter started off with well-above-average snowfall when Winter Storm Argos dumped 25.1 inches of snow at Syracuse Hancock International Airport, which is a record November snowstorm for the Salt City. However, this month is currently running 21.2 inches below average for snowfall, with only 6.2 inches accumulating between Jan. 1 and Jan. 25. Temperatures have also been generally above average the past several weeks.
• Washington D.C.: Our nation's capital has spent the majority of winter in the moderate and mild categories on the severity index. Only 0.4 inches of snow have been measured at Washington's Reagan Airport this season, which is 6.6 inches below average through Jan. 25. Temperatures this month have been as warm as the low 70s on Jan. 12, which was 29 degrees above average for the date. Many residents in the mid-Atlantic are likely thinking, "What winter?"

The black line shows how Syracuse, New York, has fallen from the "extreme or severe" category to the "moderate" category on the AWSSI, due to recent above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall.

More than two dozen locations, primarily across the Midwest, South and East, had an AWSSI that was "mild," or the least harsh category, as of early Jan. 26.
Among them are St. Louis, Atlanta, Nashville, Washington D.C., Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, all of which have seen a mild December-January relative to average. Only one Northeast city has seen a severe winter so far – Caribou, Maine – and they've already seen 77.5 inches of snow through Jan. 25, which is 22.1 inches above average.
(MORE: Spring 2017 Temperature Outlook)
If you're curious about our 49th state, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, has had a mild winter weather season so far, according to the AWSSI. November and December ended up 12.6 and 7.9 degrees above average for those respective months. And, through Jan. 25, America's northernmost city is running 11.6 degrees above average for the month. Snowfall is also 3.9 inches below average on the season, so far, in Utqiagvik.