Watches Issued: Severe Weather Outbreak Possible in the Deep South, Gulf Coast This Weekend

Linda Lam
Published: January 20,2017
An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is possible near parts of the Gulf Coast and Deep South, with damaging winds, strong tornadoes, and heavy rain triggering flash flooding. Severe storms have begun to develop in eastern Texas and will intensify and grow in areal extent overnight.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued the following severe weather watches:

• a tornado watch valid until 2:00 AM CST for southwestern Louisiana and extreme southeastern Texas. This watch area includes Beaumont, Texas and Lake Charles, Louisana. Conditions are favorable for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and very large hail. 
• a tornado watch valid until 7:00 AM CST for southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. This watch area includes New Orleans and Baton Rouge, Louisiana and Biloxi and Hattiesburg, Mississippi. Conditions are favorable for tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail. 

Current Radar, Watches and Warnings.

(MORE: Where January Tornadoes Occur | Tornado Central)
A powerhouse jet stream will surge into the South this weekend. Given the strong vertical wind shear – change in wind speed and/or direction with height – this pattern alone lends itself to a potential severe weather outbreak.
Warm, humid air will be tapped northward from the Gulf of Mexico, providing needed instability for severe thunderstorms.
Certainty is building in a large-scale severe weather event across parts of the South this weekend.

Setup this weekend in the South for rain and thunderstorms.

For now, here is our latest forecast timeline.

Friday Night

• Scattered severe thunderstorms are developing over on the upper Texas coast and in southeastern Louisiana. These storms will spread eastward through the evening, and eventually into Mississippi and southwest Alabama before dawn Saturday.
• Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible. Very large hail is possible in portions of southeast Texas and southern Louisiana this evening. A strong tornado or two are possible through the very early morning hours. 
• Cities: Houston | Baton Rouge, Louisiana | New Orleans | Biloxi, Mississippi | Mobile, Alabama

(REMINDER: Overnight Tornadoes Are More Than Twice As Likely To Be Deadly)
Have at least two ways to get alerts that will wake you up if severe weather comes your way.

Friday Night's Severe Forecast

Saturday-Saturday Night

• Early Saturday: Scattered to numerous severe storms will be ongoing from southeastern Louisana eastward to the western Florida panhandle.  These storms may contain tornadoes, damaging winds, and very large hail. 
• Numerous severe thunderstorms will continue into Saturday afternoon with damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. Storms will begin in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama and slide eastward throughout the day into west Georgia and the Florida panhandle. Storms may approach the Atlantic coast overnight.
• Moderate to heavy rain will also bring the threat of localized flooding across the region.
• Cities: New Orleans | Jackson, Mississippi | Mobile, Alabama | Birmingham, Alabama | Tallahassee, Florida

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday

• Severe thunderstorms may be more numerous in the Southeast, particularly in eastern Alabama, Georgia, the Florida peninsula, South Carolina and parts of southern North Carolina. Multiple waves of strong to severe storms are possible.  
• Damaging straight-line winds, tornadoes and hail are all threats.
• Heavy rain and local flash flooding will also be concerns in some areas.
• Cities: Atlanta | Jacksonville | Orlando | Tampa | Charleston

Sunday's Severe Forecast

Rainfall Forecast

Much of the South will receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall by early next week. Where multiple rounds of thunderstorms occur, rainfall totals much higher are possible.

Rainfall Forecast

Although flooding will be a concern for some areas, this rainfall will be beneficial to areas still in a drought.
(MAPS: Precipitation Forecast)
The good news is that drought conditions have improved since the fall, but significant rain is still needed in some locations. Portions of northern Georgia and Alabama remain in the second-highest drought category, extreme, as of Jan. 17.

Latest drought conditions as of Jan. 17, 2017.
(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Only 11 percent of Georgia is not experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions, and 66 percent of Alabama remains in drought, according to the latest drought monitor.
The expected rainfall will help continue the trend of improving drought conditions across the region, but will not end it in areas hit hardest.

Storm Reports

Even before organized large-scale severe weather could occur, three tornadoes occurred between Jan. 18-19. There was an EF1 in Burkeville, Texas, an EF1 southeast of Birmingham, Alabama and an EF2 in Simpson and Smith counties in Mississippi.
Heavy rainfall and flooding was reported on Friday, Jan. 20 in southeast Texas including the Houston metro area.

MORE: Severe Weather in the South