Nor'easter to Bring Damaging Winds, Rain, Coastal Flooding, Snow, Even Ice; High Wind Warning For New York City

Linda Lam
Published: January 23,2017
A Nor'easter will hammer much of the East through Tuesday with a mess of high winds, coastal flooding, heavy rain, heavy snow, even some ice in some areas. Unlike many late-January Nor'easters, snow may not be the biggest headline.
High wind warnings are in effect for a swath of the Northeast seaboard, from the Jersey Shore to eastern Massachusetts, including most of the New York City metro area, Long Island, Cape Cod, Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard.
Winds have already gusted from 40 to 50 mph early Monday in Atlantic City, New Jersey. These strong onshore winds pushed waves over the city's seawall Monday morning.

Current Radar, Temperatures, Conditions

A strong area of low pressure brought multiple days of severe weather to the Deep South this past weekend.
This strong low-pressure system will continue to strengthen as it moves up the Northeast coast Monday and Tuesday. It will also allow warmer air to push northward. The combination of the system's track close to the coast and the lack of cold air in place will limit the amount of wintry precipitation along and near the I-95 Northeast corridor.
However, high pressure to the north will allow some cold air to get trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere, setting the stage for some heavy snow, possibly mixed with sleet and freezing rain, at times, in the interior Northeast and New England.
A mix of winter storm warnings, watches, and winter weather advisories are in effect for parts of the Northeast.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)

Current winter watches, warnings and advisories

First, let's break down the Nor'easter's timeline. Then we'll touch on how much rain, wind, snow and ice is forecast.

Monday

• Areas from eastern Massachusetts to Virginia and westward through Pennsylvania will see mostly rain, heavy at times. A few rumbles of thunder are also a possibility.
• Wind gusts from 60 to 70 mph are possible in the high wind warning areas Monday and Monday evening.
• Coastal flooding may reach moderate levels along parts of the Jersey Shore, Long Island and southeast New England, potentially prompting road closures in some areas.
• By Monday afternoon and night, snow, sleet and freezing rain will become more widespread across parts of the interior Northeast, from the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia to western, central and Upstate New York, and parts of New England west and northwest of the city of Boston.
• Forecast: Philadelphia | New York City | Burlington, Vermont

Monday's Forecast

Tuesday

• Rain will gradually end in the mid-Atlantic states, while rainy conditions persist in southern New England.
• Locally heavy snow will shift into Upstate New York and New England, but should eventually mix with or changeover to sleet or freezing rain.
• Winds will decrease through the day, but it will remain gusty at times in eastern New England and in an offshore direction near the Mid-Atlantic coast. 
• Forecast: Buffalo, New York | Boston | Caribou, Maine

Tuesday's Forecast

Forecast Impacts

High Winds

We mentioned earlier the high wind warnings in effect for parts of the Northeast, including New York City.
Below is a general timeline of forecast sustained winds for several cities. Some wind gusts from 50 to 60 mph are possible in these areas particularly Monday afternoon and Monday night.
Downed trees, power lines, and scattered to numerous power outages are expected Monday afternoon through Monday night in these areas.

Wind Gust Forecast

Coastal Flooding

Coastal flooding may also be a concern in some areas. Here's a general timeline of potential peak coastal flood impacts, from the National Weather Service:

• South Jersey Shore/Delaware (Monday morning): Some road closures possible
• North Jersey Shore, Long Island Atlantic Beaches (Monday afternoon/evening): Potential widespread flooding of vulnerable roads near the shore. Some minor to moderate property damage is possible. Widespread dune erosion expected. Tides may be 2 to 4 feet above normal. 
• Long Island Sound (Through Monday evening): Minor flooding along immediate coast
• Southeast New England (Monday night/Tuesday morning): Minor coastal flooding, beach erosion

Heavy Rain

Areal flood watches are also posted in parts of the Northeast, including parts of southeast New England, including the Boston metro area and the New York City Tri-State area.
(MAPS: Precipitation Forecast)
Through Tuesday, areas from Boston to Washington D.C. will generally receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall. Locally heavier amounts are possible and could lead to some flooding, despite the current ongoing drought.

Snow/Ice

Parts of central and Upstate New York and northern New England will likely see at least 6 inches of snow. In the higher elevations of the Catskills, Adirondacks and Green Mountains, snowfall totals may surpass 12 inches. This snow will be of the heavy, wet and high-impact variety.
Some ice accumulation is also expected in these areas, which will at least make most roads slick for a time. While widespread, damaging accumulations are not expected, stronger winds developing later Monday into Tuesday may trigger power outages in areas with accumulated snow or ice on trees and power lines.

Rain and Snow Forecast

This Isn't What You'd Expect in Late January

Snow lovers typically rejoice when a strong low-pressure system tracks off the Northeast coast in late January. However, this year is unusual in that not much snow is expected with this upcoming Nor'easter.
The lack of snow is due to the upper-level pattern and the track of the surface low-pressure system. The result will be a rain event along the coast and a mix of wintry precipitation, at times, farther inland.

People begin to venture out to assess the damage after Winter Storm Jonas dropped nearly 30 inches of snow in Baltimore, MD on Sunday, January 24, 2016.
(Shawn Hubbard/weather.com)

This is a much different situation than what happened last year at this time. Winter Storm Jonas buried a large portion of the Northeast urban corridor with more than 2 feet of snow from the Washington D.C. area to New York City, from Jan. 22 to Jan. 24, 2016.
(MORE: 5 Most Impressive Things About Winter Storm Jonas)
Snowfall rates of up to 3 inches of snow an hour were observed, at times, during the peak of Jonas, and New York City set a new record for heaviest snowstorm with 27.5 inches of snow measured.
This impressive storm stranded thousands of travelers and a quarter-million customers lost power during the storm.
Two years ago, Winter Storm Juno impacted portions of the Northeast with heavy snow, strong winds and coastal flooding from Jan. 26 to Jan. 28, 2015.
(MORE: Winter Storm Juno Recap)
New England was particularly hard-hit, with blizzard conditions reported in areas of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At least one person died as a result of the storm.
Although late January can see significant and impactful snowstorms in the Northeast, this does not appear to be the case this year.

MORE: Winter Storm Jonas