Five Things to Watch In the First Week of 2017

Jonathan Belles, Linda Lam
Published: January 1,2017
An active weather pattern will bring another interesting week of weather to start 2017 across the U.S.
The upcoming week will feature another multi-faceted winter storm that will bring the first dose of heavy snow of the year for the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, the South will kick off the year with severe storms and soaking rainfall.
In addition, some big temperature changes are ahead which could play a role in a late-week system.

1. Next Winter Trouble Maker

Winter Storm Gregory has already impacted the Pacific Northwest and will spread east into the northern Plains, Upper Midwest and interior Northeast Monday into early Tuesday.
(MORE: Winter Storm Gregory Forecast) 

Next Winter System

This latest round of wintry weather is due to a dip in the jet stream that has pushed southward into the West with cold temperatures and snow.
An area of low pressure will intensify in the Plains Monday and then track toward the Great Lakes. This will result in a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain from the northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, northern Great Lakes and parts of the interior Northeast.
Strong and gusty winds are also likely early week in the northern Plains and Midwest.

2. Severe

An area of low pressure will move from the southern Plains into the Deep South to start the week. In addition to bringing much-needed rain to the South, thunderstorms are also expected to develop.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday night in central and eastern Texas, as well as into southern Louisiana. The primary threat with these storms will be large hail, but damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are also possible.
(MORE: Severe Thunderstorms to Start 2017 in the South)
The threat of severe thunderstorms slides east on Monday and will stretch from eastern Texas into Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.

3. Drought Relief

The second of two slugs of moisture will ride Interstate-10 eastbound during the first half of the week. This welcomed disturbance may bring an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall to much of the South.

Rainfall Forecast

Given the ongoing drought in the South, this rain will generally be beneficial, although it will not erase the drought.
Showers may linger into Tuesday in the Southeast, before drier conditions return midweek behind a cold front.
(MORE: 8 Cool Things to Look For in Winter)
The rain may be locally heavy at times and rainfall totals of more than 3 inches are expected through Tuesday toward the northern Gulf Coast. In fact, flood watches have been issued from southern Louisiana into southwestern Alabama.

4. Temperature Changes

The next round of brutally cold temperatures will begin to press into portions of the West on Monday, as an upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, slides southward.
High temperatures on Monday will be 10 to 30 degrees colder than average for much of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies and northern Plains. This translates into highs only in the single digits and teens for many areas.

Forecast Highs Compared to Average Next Friday

The bitterly cold temperatures will continue to push south and east through the week. This will also be a lasting cold in some areas as temperatures will remain well-below average from the Northwest into the northern Plains through the week.
Low temperatures will also be up to 40 degrees colder than normal for early January, meaning temperatures will plunge into the teens and 20s below zero in parts of the Rockies and northern Plains.
(MORE: January's Cold Reality Starts 2017)
Farther east, the week will start off quite mild with temperatures 10 to 25 degrees warmer than average from the southern Plains to the East Coast. However, by late week colder temperatures will return.
Much of the Midwest and Northeast will see highs in the 40s and 50s early in the week but temperatures will only reach the 20s and 30s by late week. Look for highs in the 60s and 70s in the South to be replaced with highs in the 30s, 40s and low 50s.

5. Late Week Wintry Systems?

An potentially active pattern will continue late in the week, and given the cold temperatures that are expected to be in place, more wintry weather is possible.
Forecast model guidance remains very uncertain at this time, but some snow can't be ruled out in parts of the East, possibly including the South.
The jet stream disturbances that could bring the wintry weather to the East will first dump snow on the mountain West midweek. Check back for updates in the days ahead as forecast guidance gets a better handle on the future evolution of that jet stream energy.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

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