Texas to Feel Brief Reprieve From Flooding Rain During First Week of June

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist

May 29,2015; 11:24PM,EDT

 

Following another busy weekend for severe storms and flooding in Texas and the southern Plains, the frequent rain and storms will shift eastward.

According to AccuWeather Chief Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, "A tranquil weather pattern will set up from Texas to the central Plains for the first week of June."
Rivers and bayous will slowly recede. The almost daily disruptions to travel due to flooding will cease. People in flood zones will be able begin the long road to putting their lives back in order.
Dallas, Oklahoma City and San Antonio and Austin, Texas, should be rain-free much of the time during Monday through Friday.
An area of high pressure is forecast to build over the southern Plains during the first week in June. The high pressure area will turn off the thunderstorm machine that has been switched on for the past month.

Warmer air aloft associated with the new pattern will limit thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, a dry flow of air from the west and northwest will prevent Gulf of Mexico moisture, which is fuel for thunderstorms, from spreading over the region.
Even though there can still be spotty storms over Texas and the southern Plains driven by strong sunshine, the bulk of the activity will tend to occur right near the Gulf Coast. Around Houston, odds favor rain-free weather most of the time with only very isolated downpours.
RELATED:
Additional Rounds of Storms for Texas, Oklahoma Into the Weekend
Flooding Rain Nearly Ends Drought in Texas
Check AccuWeather MinuteCast® for Rain Start, Stop Times
Meanwhile, as the weather dries out over the southern Plains, an uptick in showers and thunderstorms will occur farther east.
Parts of the East are in need of rain following limited rainfall, strong sunshine and high evaporation rates during May.
The bulk of showers and storms will tend to focus from the lower Mississippi River states to the southern Atlantic Seaboard during the first week in June.

While the wet pattern forecast will not be as intense as what Texas and Oklahoma experienced during May, it can still cause enough rain in a short period of time to cause urban flooding issues.
"Strong sunshine, a pocket of cool air aloft and a flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is a recipe for trouble in terms of heavy rain and gusty thunderstorms," Paquette said.
At the very least, people from New Orleans to Nashville, Atlanta and Charlotte, North Carolina, should be prepared for travel delays and disruptions to daily activities.
The pattern change for the first week of June will not be as long-lasting as that of May.
"The tranquil weather pattern for the southern Plains will begin to break down around the first weekend in June with the risk of severe weather and heavy rainfall returning," Pastelok said.
Pastelok believes that the engines that contributed to the stormy weather and flooding during May will remain in place.
"Warmer-than-average water in the tropical Pacific Ocean [El Niño] as well as off the West coast of the United States are contributing to an atmospheric traffic jam over North America," Pastelok said.
The pattern has been responsible for a persistent storm aloft over the Rockies, which has been sending disturbances across the Plains and Texas.