A Break For Soaked Texas and Oklahoma Is Ahead (FORECAST)

Linda Lam
Published: May 29,2015




 
Yes, more heavy rain is forecast for the flood-weary southern Plains, but the light at the end of this tunnel is approaching.
Early Friday morning a flash flood emergency was issued for portions of the Dallas metro area, where multiple water rescues are occurring and travel has become impossible in some areas. Just northeast of Dallas rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches have been reported from early Thursday morning to early Friday morning.
(MORE: Dallas Area Flash Flood Emergency)
Flash flooding was also reported Thursday in parts of Oklahoma and Texas. A flash flood emergency was issued in Lawton, Oklahoma.
On Wednesday, mudslides were reported near Palo Duro Canyon in the Texas panhandle, evacuations were prompted in the Fort Worth suburb of Blue Mound, numerous streets were flooded in Great Bend, Kansas, and early Wednesday, another round of soaking rain descended into Houston, just 24 hours after a massive flood event brought parts of the Houston area to a halt.
(MORE: Jaw-Dropping Images | Houston Flood vs. Allison)

Flood Watches and Warnings

Officials in parts of Texas have warned that river flooding could last for weeks as some areas have seen more than 20 inches of rain during May. Several cities and two states have already seen their wettest month on record.
(MORE: Record May Rainfall)
Widespread flash flooding also occurred in Austin this past holiday weekend. Shoal Creek was just one of many creeks and rivers that came out of its banks and flooded the area Monday afternoon.
Memorial Day weekend flooding also swamped Wimberley, Texas and several locations in Oklahoma.
(MORE: Catastrophic Flooding)

Through Saturday: More Rain on the Way

A southward dip in the jet stream has been locked in place over the western states, allowing it to launch disturbances into the Plains. Those disturbances provide the necessary lift in the atmosphere to trigger thunderstorm development as they intercept a warm, moist air mass in place near the surface of the earth.

Forecast Rainfall

Unfortunately, more showers and thunderstorms are expected in the Southern Plains through














Saturday as a late season cold front approaches the region. Southeastern Texas may see thunderstorms continue into Sunday.
Of most concern is the potential for clusters of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, particularly during the overnight/early morning hours, in the Plains states from the Ozarks to Texas and eastern New Mexico.
Any rainfall will run off quickly because the soil is so saturated, triggering additional flash flooding. River flooding will continue on larger rivers as crests move downstream.
(INTERACTIVE MAP: Latest Flood Alerts)
It appears likely that at least one location will break the official all-time May rainfall record for the entire state of Oklahoma, which is 23.95 inches in Miami, Oklahoma, in May 1943.
Keep in mind that slow-moving thunderstorms can produce heavier rainfall totals in localized areas in a short period of time. Also, the exact areas where the heaviest rainfall amounts occur may differ slightly from what is shown on our forecast map given that small-scale details are hard to predict several days in advance.
As always, stay informed about the latest flood watches and warnings for your area. If you are in a vehicle and encounter a flooded roadway, do not attempt to drive through the water. From 1995-2010, 64 percent of flood-related deaths occurred in vehicles. The National Weather Service stresses: Turn around, don't drown.
(MORE: Your Vehicle is a Danger in Flooding)

Drying Out Ahead

This relentless pattern of rain is on the way out, at least for awhile, as the calendar turns to June.
(MORE: Daily Rain Forecast)
The combination of a cool front plunging into the southern Plains later this weekend and a jet stream finally make a northward migration, will allow drier, more stable air aloft to take hold in the southern Plains.
While this wouldn't be strong enough to inhibit all thunderstorms, we think thunderstorm coverage should be much less, with a much lower threat of flash flooding in the week ahead in Texas and Oklahoma. In essence, an extended period of mainly dry conditions is likely for most of Texas and Oklahoma in the week ahead.
(FORECAST: Houston | Austin | Dallas | Oklahoma City)
Instead, next week's thunderstorm clusters may target the northern and central Plains, roughly from Kansas or Nebraska northward.
Who would've thought a drier forecast would be good news in Texas and Oklahoma given the recent long-term drought?
MORE: Southern Plains Severe and Flooding May 2015 (PHOTOS)