Weekend Storm May Finally Snap Long Snow Droughts in Chicago, Baltimore, Washington D.C.

Jon Erdman
Published: March 6,2017

Snow is expected to return later this week to parts of the Midwest and Northeast, possibly in some cities that haven't seen much snow in over a month – or the entire winter season – and this may not simply be a dusting.
The jet stream is expected to take a bit of a southern dive into the Midwest and East this weekend. In response, a low-pressure system will sharpen near the surface and sufficient cold air will ooze southward into the northern Plains, Midwest and Northeast.
(MORE: Winter Storm Central)

Potential Snowy Setup This Weekend

It remains far too soon to confidently forecast snowfall totals for any given areas because the snow forecast depends on the exact track of the surface low-pressure system five days out, triggered by a jet stream disturbance still at least 6,000 miles away near Japan.
For now, here's a general outlook for who may see snow and when.
(MORE: Where March is the Snowiest Month)

An 'Appetizer': Thursday Night and Friday

First up, a weaker upper-level system will ripple through the Ohio Valley and East Thursday night into Friday.
With a little cold air in place, light accumulating snow is possible from parts of Ohio to the mid-Atlantic states.
Some of this snow is likely to melt on pavement but accumulate on grassy areas and vehicle tops, given the early-week warmth. However, there could be some slushy travel in some areas by Friday morning.

Friday's Outlook

Weekend Snowstorm?

Meanwhile, starting Friday, a swath of snow may already be blanketing parts of the northern Plains.
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain/Snow Forecast)
By Saturday, that swath of snow should spread into the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and perhaps the southern Great Lakes.

Saturday's Outlook

Saturday night and Sunday, that snow spreads into the East.

Sunday's Outlook

For now, this looks like a moderate snow event overall (translation, you'll have to shovel or get out the snowthrower), with the potential of locally heavy snow in some spots.
Again, it's far too soon to specify who may see the moderate or potentially heavy snow, but this storm track will break the mold that's been in place much of this winter.
(MORE: 5 Extreme Winter Storms in Spring)

The Corridor Winter Forgot

For the general swath expecting snow late this week or into the weekend, winter has been exceptionally mild and snowless.
Chicago just experienced its first January through February period without as much as an inch of snow on the ground. The last such snow cover at O'Hare International Airport was on Christmas morning.
Along with the Windy City, Indianapolis, Washington D.C. and Baltimore are also at a snowfall deficit of at least one foot through Mar. 5.
In Baltimore, it's the least snowy winter-to-date since 0.4 inches of snow fell through Mar. 5, 1950. The last one-inch-plus snowfall at Baltimore-Washington International Airport was roughly one year ago, Mar. 3-4, 2016.
(INTERACTIVE: When Spring's Last Snow Typically Happens)
Just down Interstate 95, the 1.4 inches at Washington's Reagan National Airport so far is the least snowy season-to-date in 19 years, when only 0.1 inches had fallen, and would tie 1972-1973 for the least snowy season.
According to an index known as AWSSI, which calculates the severity of a winter based on snowfall and cold weather days, this has been a record mild winter in the following cities:

• Omaha, Nebraska
• Des Moines, Iowa
• Louisville, Kentucky
• Lexington, Kentucky
• Charleston, West Virginia
• Elkins, West Virginia

Plot of Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI) values on March 6, 2017. Red diamonds indicate locations which were calculated to have a record mild winter-to-date through March 6. Red circles denote a "mild" winter, orange circles a "moderate" winter, yellow circles an "average" winter, and blue circles a "severe" winter.
(Midwest Regional Climate Center)

After this weekend's snow, generally colder-than-average air may linger from the upper Midwest to the Northeast into the first half of next week.
(MAPS: 10-Day U.S. High/Low Forecast)

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