Tropical Cyclone Enawo Closing In on Landfall After Rapid Intensification; Red Alert Issued For a Potentially Disastrous Strike on Madagascar Tuesday

Jonathan Belles
Published: March 6,2017

Tropical Cyclone Enawo has rapidly intensified and is now closing in on landfall in Madagascar in what may be the island's strongest landfall in at least five years. A destructive siege of damaging winds, storm-surge flooding, rainfall flooding and mudslides are all likely impacts in eastern Madagascar.
Rapid intensification is when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots (35 mph) in 24 hours or less. Enawo is currently the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Enawo is the first major (Category 3 or higher) hurricane of the 2016-17 Southern Hemisphere hurricane season.
Enawo is exhibiting the most distinct eye it has shown during its lifetime, with an intense ring of eyewall convection surrounding the eye.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Status, Enhanced Satellite Image

Satellite imagery indicates bands of heavy rain have already pivoted into northeast Madagascar ahead of Enawo.
Meteo Madagascar has issued a red alert for the northeast coastal areas of Madagascar, meaning tropical cyclone conditions are likely within 12 hours, advising residents to abandon houses on the water's edge, store drinking water and seek shelter inside a safe building.
Enawo is in a favorable environment featuring:

• Light vertical wind shear, or relatively low change in wind direction and speed with height that allows thunderstorms to remain clustered near the center of circulation.
• Warm sea-surface temperatures, providing heat and low-level moisture to power the cyclone's thunderstorms.
• Winds spreading apart near the tops of thunderstorms, helping the low-pressure center to intensify.

A strengthening area of high pressure aloft to the southeast of Enawo will steer this tropical cyclone toward the northeast coast of Madagascar Tuesday.
(INTERACTIVE: Madagascar Satellite Loop)

Forecast Track

Storm-surge flooding, damaging winds and dangerous surf are threats near and along the northeast coast of Madagascar. Downed trees, structural damage to homes and power outages may be widespread in these areas.
Enawo will also bring heavy rainfall to this mountainous island. Much of the northeast coast will likely see in excess of 12 inches of rain. Mountainous locations, especially east- and northeast-facing slopes, may pick up more.

Forecast Rainfall

This could trigger life-threatening flash flooding and mud/rockslides. This flash flood threat could extend south into the capital of Antananarivo (population estimated around 1.4 million), and could linger into much of the week ahead, particularly if Enawo slows down as it curls southward over the island.
Remember, rainfall potential of a tropical cyclone is largely a function of its forward speed, not its intensity.
According to the World Bank Indicators, only 11 percent of Madagascar's roads are paved.
According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, activity in February in the Indian Ocean was at its third-lowest level on record. February is typically a peak month for hurricane-strength systems in that basin.
(MORE: Cyclone Dineo Kills At Least 7 in Mozambique)
The southwestern Indian Ocean typically sees about 9 to 10 tropical cyclones each year, while 4 to 5 of these become hurricane-strength systems.
The last tropical cyclone of at least hurricane strength to landfall in Madagascar was Hellen on Mar. 31, 2014.
Only two hurricane-strength tropical cyclones have made landfall on Madagascar's east coast this decade: Giovanna on Feb. 13, 2012, and Bingiza on Feb. 14, 2011, according to NOAA's Best Track database.
In March 2004, Tropical Cyclone Gafilo made landfall as a Category 4 equivalent storm in roughly the same area of northeast Madagascar that Enawo is forecast to strike, claiming 363 lives, according to the EM-DAT International Disaster Database. More than 20,000 homes were destroyed, according to MeteoFrance.

MORE: Madagascar Safari

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