Could Hurricane Matthew Be a Joaquin Déjà Vu in The Bahamas?

Jon Erdman
Published: October 1,2016
Hurricane Matthew is expected to pose a danger to the Bahamas almost exactly one year after Hurricane Joaquin ransacked the central and southeastern Bahamas.
(MORE: Matthew Forecast | Hurricane Central)
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Matthew moving through the Bahamas next week.

Matthew Projected Path

One possible scenario has Matthew taking about 24 to 36 hours to move through the Bahamas. A more ominous scenario, however, involves Matthew moving much slower, possibly taking three days to finally clear the islands.
(FORECAST: Nassau | Freeport)
This scenario brings to mind Hurricane Joaquin's prolonged pounding one year ago.

Joaquin's Devastation

First developing about halfway between Bermuda and the Bahamas, Joaquin narrowly missed Category 5 status as it lashed the central Bahamas for several days before finally pulling away.

Path history of Hurricane Joaquin near The Bahamas in 2015.

The duration of these winds led to severe storm surges of 12 to 15 feet on Acklins, Crooked Island and Rum Cay, according to the National Hurricane Center's report of Joaquin, citing the Bahamas Department of Meteorology.
(PHOTOS: 8 Stunning Satellite Images of Joaquin)
An estimated 5 to 10 inches of rain added to the surge flooding.
On Long Island, 4 to 6 feet of water covered two-thirds of the island four days after Joaquin left. Seventy percent of Crooked Island was flooded with at least five feet of water.
A critical shortage of clean drinking water set in, as wells were contaminated by leaking septic tanks. A total blackout occurred on three islands. Structural damage was also widespread.
(MORE: Hurricane Joaquin's Aftermath)
Ninety percent of homes in Lovely Bay, Chester and Snug Corner on Acklins were damaged or destroyed, and all homes on the east side of both Crooked Island and Long Cay had severe roof damage.
An airport building on San Salvador was destroyed, and the airport on Rum Cay was flooded. The main bridge on Acklins was also destroyed.
Residents were evacuated to Nassau and basic supplies were delivered by planes and boats to the hardest-hit areas. Joaquin also contributed to the sinking of the cargo ship, El Faro, claiming 33 lives.
Due to the devastation, Joaquin was retired as a hurricane name.
(MORE: 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Recap)
Colorado State University tropical meteorologist Dr. Phil Klotzbach said Joaquin was the first Category 4 hurricane to track through the Bahamas in October since 1866.
Joaquin's minimum central pressure of 931 millibars was also the lowest observed in an Atlantic Basin hurricane since September 2010, when Hurricane Igor bottomed out at 924 millibars.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7.