Northeast Will Get Its Biggest Soaking in Months, But Is it Too Much of a Good Thing?

Brian Donegan
Published: October 20,2016
After suffering from drought conditions since late spring and summer, a promising forecast is finally in store for the Northeast over the next day or two. Periods of rain are expected through the first half of the weekend, and the rain could come down heavily at times, especially on Friday.
The higher elevations of Upstate New York and northern New England will likely see rain change to snow as colder air infiltrates the region, but for everyone else it will be a cold, soaking rain.
The source of this incoming moisture is a deepening area of low pressure and its associated cold front that is approaching the Northeast, which likely won't clear the region until late Saturday or early Sunday.
(MORE: Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Rainfall Outlook

The steadiest rain is expected to set up from western and central Pennsylvania into western, central and northern New York. At least 2 or 3 inches of rain should fall in these areas.
An even heavier band of rain will likely develop from north-central Pennsylvania into the Finger Lakes region of New York and extend through north-central New York and New York's North Country region. Three to 5-plus inches of rain are expected across these areas, while isolated amounts of over 5 inches are possible, especially east of Lake Ontario.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday

(MORE: Fall Isn't Always Calm; Be Aware of These Weather Threats)
Flash flood guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) is rather high since it has been so dry over the past few months. On average, the areas expected to see the heaviest rain would need roughly between 2.5 and 3.5 inches of rain in 6 hours or less to cause a flash flood.
This amount of rain is definitely feasible in a 6-hour period, especially where the heaviest band of rain sets up Friday, so flash flooding is certainly a possibility. The NWS has issued a flash flood watch for portions of central New York, central and western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia due to this potential.
So, although the Northeast does need this rain, it may become excessive at times. Remember to never drive through flooded water, should any flash flooding develop.

Drought Relief?

Roughly three-quarters of the Northeast is currently classified under abnormally dry and drought conditions, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor.
The areas in most dire need of rain are western New York and eastern New England, as the National Drought Mitigation Center labels them in an extreme drought, the second-worst category of drought.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Red indicates extreme drought, the second-worst drought classification. Orange indicates severe drought, one step below extreme. Tan indicates moderate drought, the lowest drought classification. Yellow indicates abnormally dry conditions.

The amount of rain expected through Saturday will likely put a dent in these drought conditions across the Northeast. The drought isn't expected to be eliminated completely, but this will certainly be a step in the right direction.
The new drought monitor will be released by the National Drought Mitigation Center next Thursday.

MORE: Northeast Rainbows

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