Thursday, October 20, 2016

Higher-Elevation Snow Ahead in the Northeast After Record-Warm Temperatures

Linda Lam
Published: October 20,2016
The record warmth of this week will soon be a distant memory as snow is expected in some of the higher elevations of the Northeast this weekend.
After very warm temperatures for mid-October, a pattern change is beginning to take place that will usher in more fall-like temperatures. It may even feel more like winter to some.
The source of these changes is a cold front that is approaching the Northeast with heavy rain. Flash flood watches are in effect for portions of central New York, central and western Pennsylvania, eastern Ohio and northern West Virginia.
(MORE: Northeast Will Get Its Biggest Soaking in Months, But Is it Too Much of a Good Thing?)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Big Changes Ahead

For those who prefer a warm, toasty fire to air conditioning, good news is ahead as a pattern change is on the way.
Temperatures will remain warm for this time of year through Friday in New England and the mid-Atlantic, but temperatures will not be as warm as earlier this week. By this weekend, temperatures will drop back to closer to average.
Temperatures will even be slightly below average in spots, beginning Friday. Lows will be up to 10 degrees colder than average into next week.
(FORECAST: Buffalo, New York | Philadelphia | Boston) 

Forecast Highs
These changes are courtesy of an upper-level trough that is moving across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. An area of low pressure, associated with this trough, will move through the Northeast, slowly moving northeastward into Canada this weekend.
This area of low pressure will deepen and northwesterly winds will allow cold air to surge southward. This will set the stage for the possibility of some snow in the higher elevations.
Moisture from a possible tropical system could be drawn northward, which may enhance precipitation in the Northeast.
(MORE: Watching a Disturbance Near the Bahamas)
As this system slowly exits the region, some rain and snow showers may linger in the mountains through this weekend.

Wintry Forecast
The first chance for snow showers will be in the Adirondacks and Catskills of New York, the Green Mountains of Vermont and the White Mountains of New Hampshire on Saturday. Lower elevations can expect rain.
(MORE: When the First Snow of the Season Typically Falls)
Lake-effect rain showers are possible with this system as well, with the potential for a dusting of snow for the Tug Hill Plateau, especially Saturday night.
Some locally heavy snow is even possible over the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains through Sunday morning. Most areas, however, will see cold rain showers.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Snowfall Forecast
Sunday, additional light snow showers or flurries may be seen over the Adirondacks and into northern New England.
A few snowflakes may linger into Sunday night and Monday in far northern New England and northern New York.
Windy conditions are also expected this weekend, which could lead to some power outages, given the risk of wet snow and leaves still on trees.
High pressure is then expected to build across the region early next week, bringing drier weather and temperatures that likely will remain cool.

Record Warmth

Temperatures were up to 20 degrees above average in the Northeast Tuesday through Thursday. Highs reached 80 degrees as far north as Boston. These very warm October temperatures set numerous daily record highs.
On Thursday, a record high was recorded in Philadelphia (81 degrees) and tied at Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport (83 degrees).
On Wednesday, record highs were set in New York City's Central Park (85 degrees), La Guardia Airport (86 degrees) and JFK Airport (86 degrees), as well as in Philadelphia (86 degrees), Baltimore (87 degrees) and Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport (87 degrees).
On Tuesday, Binghamton, New York, set a new daily record high of 77 degrees, as well as a record warm low of 60 degrees. Other daily record highs included Albany, New York (84 degrees); Hartford, Connecticut (84 degrees); Newark, New Jersey (85 degrees); and Baltimore, Maryland (84 degrees).
Low temperatures were quite warm as well, with lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s. Given that we are halfway through fall, lows this mild are actually closer to average highs for this time of year.

What a Difference a Year Makes

Last year at this time, instead of breaking warm temperature records, it was cold enough for snow to be observed in portions of the region.
Much of Upstate New York and New England recorded a trace of snow Oct. 18, 2015. Syracuse measured 0.4 inches of snow and Binghamton saw 0.1 inches.


Brian Donegan ✔ @WxBrianD
Fall and winter this morning. Woke up to a coating of snow in Cortland!
A trace of snow was reported as far south as northern Pennsylvania and as far east as Boston.
Low temperatures were in the 20s for much of Upstate New York and New England on Oct. 18 and 19. Boston even saw its first freeze as temperatures dropped to just below the freezing mark on Oct. 19.
MORE: Unique Ways To See Fall Foliage
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