By Jordan Root, Meteorologist
September 12,2016; 9:08PM,EDT
Super Typhoon Meranti will hold on to its intensity over next couple of days before pounding Taiwan with flooding rain, damaging winds and dangerous storm surge on Wednesday.
Meranti, currently equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane, reached super typhoon status on Monday afternoon local time. A super typhoon is classified when sustained wind speeds hit at least 240 km/h (150 mph).
"Meranti will be traveling through an environment with low wind shear and very warm ocean water which is favorable for holding on to this strength," AccuWeather Meteorologist Adam Douty said.
Damaging winds, torrential rain and mudslides will threaten Taiwan early Wednesday morning into Thursday as Meranti approaches and eventually tracks just to the south of the country.
"Impacts to Taiwan could begin on Tuesday night, local time, but Wednesday seems to be the most likely time for the greatest impacts from Meranti," Douty said.
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Meranti will have the potential to cause damage to parts of Taiwan, especially the southeastern coast. Rough surf will begin to batter the coast on Tuesday and will only increase heading into Wednesday. A storm surge of 2 to 3 meters (7 to 10 feet) is expected.
Sustained winds of 160 km/h to 190 km/h (100 mph to 120 mph) are also likely where the system comes onshore on Wednesday, resulting in downed trees and power outages.
Significant rainfall of 250 to 500 mm (10 to 20 inches) will be possible with locally higher amounts of up to 750 mm (30 inches) in the mountains.
"Rainfall on this magnitude will lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides," Douty said.
While the eastern island will take the brunt of the storm, the southwestern side will also have heavy rain and gusty winds later on Wednesday into Thursday.
Some ferry services will be suspended due to the anticipated heavy rain and strong winds, Focus Taiwan reported on Monday.
Rainfall amounts of 100 mm to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) are likely from Pingtung county northward to Yilan County. Wind gusts of 95 km/h to 130 km/h (60 to 80 mph) will also be possible. This could lead to minor to moderate wind damage and flooding.
Taipei will likely be too far north to get the full impact from Meranti, with much of the rain and wind staying off to the south.
The system is expected to pull away from Taiwan and then make landfall in China, along the southern Fujian Province coast late on Thursday.
By this time, Meranti will be much weaker, but will still be impactful.
"There could still be minor wind damage along the coast, but flooding will be the primary threat at this point," Douty said.
Widespread 100 to 200 mm (4 to 8 inches) of rain will be possible across northern Fujian into Zhejiang.
Infrared Satellite imagery of Meranti provided by NOAA.
This rain is expected to then shift northeastward and get carried to inland parts of eastern China at the end of the week and into the weekend. At this point, Meranti is likely to fall apart with the moisture being pulled away from the system towards southern Japan.
Meranti will likely not be the last system that China and Taiwan will need to watch this week. Another tropical system is likely to develop late week that could cause further impacts to the region.
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