Super Typhoon Meranti Packing 185 MPH Winds, Dangerous Threat to Taiwan, China and Northern Philippines Early This Week

September 13,2016
Super Typhoon Meranti remains a very intense Category 5 as it heads west-northwest on a path that will take its eye near or just south of southern Taiwan on Wednesday, local time.
Maximum sustained winds were 185 mph as of 11 a.m. EDT Tuesday. This ties Tropical Cyclone Winston as the strongest tropical cyclone anywhere in the world so far in 2016.
(MORE: Amazing Images of Meranti)

Latest Status on Meranti

As of Tuesday late morning (EDT), or late Tuesday evening Taiwan time, Meranti was centered about 325 miles southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

Current Storm Info

Meranti is currently affecting the Batanes Islands of the northern Philippines, but its dangerous impacts are also taking aim at southern Taiwan and southeastern China the next couple of days.
Radar imagery shows that rainbands from Meranti have already arrived in Taiwan. An elevated observing station on Orchid Island off of Taiwan's southeast coast has seen wind gusts up to 130 mph.
Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for central and southern parts of the country, including Tainan City and Kaohsiung City.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, maximum significant wave heights near the center of Meranti are currently around 48 feet. In addition, the system is packing wind gusts up to 225 mph over open water.

Current Winds

Meranti is being steered to the west-northwest along the southwest periphery of an upper-level high pressure system that is located to its north.
The typhoon underwent rapid intensification Sunday into Monday, which means maximum sustained winds increased by at least 30 knots (about 35 mph) in 24 hours or less.
Meranti's winds increased from 85 mph to 180 mph in the 24 hours ending Monday at 11 a.m. EDT, according to the JTWC. That's a 95 mph increase in winds during that time, or more than double the rapid intensification criteria.
The Japanese Meteorological Agency estimated Tuesday that Meranti's pressure was 890 millibars. For perspective, only two Atlantic hurricanes have had lower pressures (Wilma and Gilbert).
(MORE: Typhoon Alley: Where The Most Intense Tropical Cyclones Most Frequently Occur)

Meranti Forecast Impacts in Taiwan, China and the Northern Philippines

The center of Meranti will move on a path that will take its center just south or near southern Taiwan on Wednesday, local time. Meranti will begin to weaken some by that point, but should remain very powerful and dangerous.
After passing near southern Taiwan, Meranti is forecast to weaken some more before making landfall in southeast China as a strong typhoon on Thursday, local time.
The forecast track for Meranti resembles the one Nepartak took in early July. Nepartak made landfall as a super typhoon (winds 150 mph or greater) near Taitung City in southeastern Taiwan as a Category 4 equivalent. It then moved into southeast China as a tropical storm.
(MORE: Super Typhoon Nepartak Recap)

Projected Path and Intensity

Here's a look at what to expect from Meranti in the northern Philippines, Taiwan and southeast China. Keep in mind, however, that all of this will be highly dependent on the ultimate track that Meranti takes.
Taiwan

• Timing: Meranti's peak impacts will be on Wednesday, local time (Tuesday night - early Wednesday U.S. time - Taiwan is 12 hours ahead of U.S. EDT).
• Impacts: Damaging winds are likely in southern Taiwan. In addition. flooding rainfall, mudslides and storm surge flooding are also possible impacts.
• Key Points: Meranti's exact path in relation to southern Taiwan will dictate the severity of the wind impacts, though typhoon-force winds are likely in southern Taiwan no matter what. If Meranti moves along the southern portion of the forecast path, this may keep the strongest winds near the eye just offshore from southern Taiwan. A farther north track would increase the destructive wind potential. Regardless of the wind impacts, heavy rain and flooding will be major concerns. In addition, battering surf and coastal flooding are likely threats along Taiwan's eastern coast.

Northern Philippines (Note: Meranti is Known as Ferdie in the Philippines)

• Timing: The Batanes and Babuyan Islands will take the brunt of the impacts from Meranti through early Wednesday, local time. The center of Meranti will pass well north of the Philippines' Luzon Island where Manilla is located.
• Impacts: The Batanes and Babuyan Islands will see damaging winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge inundation. Far northern Luzon Island should avoid the worst winds, but could see locally heavy rainfall from Meranti.

China 

• Timing: Meranti is forecast to move into southeastern China on Thursday, local time. Areas from Hong Kong northward along the coast should monitor the progress of Meranti closely. The latest JTWC forecast says that the center of Meranti will move inland near or either side of Xiamen.
• Possible Impacts: Potential threats in eastern China will greatly depend on how much the mountainous terrain of Taiwan disrupts the typhoon. At the very least, heavy rainfall can be expected, which would result in flooding. Damaging winds and storm surge flooding will also be potential threats.

Rainfall Forecast

Parts of Taiwan, particularly the southern and eastern sides of the island, could pick up over 12 inches (locally up to 24 inches) of rain as Meranti passes near or just south of the southern portion of the island. Higher elevation locations will likely see the greatest rain amounts.

Rainfall Forecast

The heavy rainfall will then spread northward into southeastern China, with over a foot of rain possible along the coast.
Due to these copious amounts of rain, flooding and mudslides are both major concerns in Taiwan and southeastern China.

Another Typhoon After Meranti?

Well to the east of Meranti is another tropical storm named Malakas is developing in the western Pacific.
It could also threaten parts of east Asia later this week, possibly as a typhoon.
The latest forecast track for this potential typhoon curls it northeast into Japan's Ryukyu Islands late this week. All interests there, including in Okinawa, should monitor this system closely for the next several days.
Eventually this system could impact southern mainland Japan this weekend.

PHOTOS: Nepartak Impacts Taiwan and China (Early July 2016)