Severe Thunderstorms Threaten the Midwest, Northeast Saturday Evening

Brian Donegan
Published: September 10,2016
Severe thunderstorms, with damaging winds and hail, will set up over portions of the Midwest and Northeast Saturday evening.
There have been over 50 reports of trees and power lines down across the Ohio Valley and Northeast Saturday afternoon and evening, due to strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, from Michigan and Ohio to Kentucky and Tennessee. Late Saturday evening, the damaging winds extended eastward into western Pennsylvania and upstate New York.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the severe threats through Saturday evening.

Severe Weather Forecast

Saturday Evening

• Forecast: Severe storms will be possible from the eastern Great Lakes and upstate New York down into the upper Ohio River Valley.
• Threats: Damaging winds, hail and an isolated tornado possible.
• Cities: Buffalo, New York | Cleveland, Ohio | Bowling Green, Kentucky | Cincinnati, Ohio | Syracuse, New York

Saturday Evening's Thunderstorm Forecast

Flood Threat Diminishing

Latest radar reports indicate that the rain is calming down and no excessive amounts are expected.
There was some flooding on interstate highways in the St. Louis area on Saturday morning. Flooding was also reported in parts of Kansas, Missouri and Illinois earlier on Saturday.

Additional Rainfall through Saturday Evening

Pockets of heavy rain are still possible across the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Additional rainfall totals are not expected to exceed one inch in most locations, however.

Severe Weather Setup

As a cold front pushes eastward into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions, rounds of thunderstorms will pop up out ahead of it, especially during the "heating of the day."
This cold front will interact with a strong low-level jet, or river of fast moving air just above the surface, as well as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.

The interaction of the cold front and low-level jet will provide the necessary ingredients to produce strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts and large hail.
The warm, moist air from the Gulf and Atlantic will provide plenty of moisture for the storms to work with, creating a risk for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Storm Reports Since Friday

There were several reports of severe weather over the southern Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday evening, including tornadoes. Up to four tornadoes touched down in east-central Illinois.

• A tornado was reported to be on the ground for 17 minutes from 3 miles south of Sidney to 1 mile southeast of Homer (Champaign County. There was significant damage reported to homes in the area.
• A tornado touched down 2 miles southwest of Bismarck (Vermillion County).
• There was a brief tornado touchdown reported 2 miles south of Casey (Clark County).
• A tornado touched down 2 miles northwest Catlin (Vermillion County).

In addition, wind gusts up to 65 mph knocked down trees and power lines southwest of Oklahoma City Friday evening.

(MORE: Confirmed Tornadoes in Midwest Friday Evening) 

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PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding