Next Atlantic Named Storm Could Be Coming Soon

Tom Moore
Published: September 7,2016
A strong tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands is disorganized but it could develop into a tropical depression or a tropical storm over the next few days.
The National Hurricane Center says this system has a medium chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next five days.
(MORE: When Atlantic Season Peak Arrives)

Eastern Atlantic Satellite View

Right Now: Unfavorable Environment For Development

For a tropical cyclone to form, there needs to be persistent convection, or thunderstorm activity, near a surface low-pressure circulation. Currently this tropical wave has a very low chance for development due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
A weak trough (dip in the jet stream) sits well to the northwest of this system, but it is creating just enough wind shear to hinder development of low pressure at the surface and for persistent convection to be maintained.
(MORE: Why Tropical Waves Are Important During the Hurricane Season)
There are also pockets of dry air in the eastern Atlantic that could hinder development in the short term.
For the next couple of days, we will be tracking this as a tropical wave, and development into a tropical cyclone is not expected.

Eastern Atlantic Satellite /Wind Shear

This Weekend: More Favorable Conditions

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave will be moving into a more favorable environment for development in the days ahead.

Computer model trends indicate that the tropical wave should continue in a general west-northwest trajectory the next several days. It will escape the influence of the upper-level trough and will be moving toward a ridge of high pressure aloft by the weekend.
This means that wind shear will be significantly reduced and there is also less dry air in the central Atlantic.
That being said, this system poses no threat to any land masses through the weekend. It could turn harmlessly into the open waters of the Atlantic over time, but we will continue to monitor the situation.
(MORE: Category 5 Atlantic Hurricane Drought Breaks Record)
This time of year, tropical waves, also known as African easterly waves, line up over Africa, south of the Sahara Desert, and emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean. A fraction of these tropical waves serve as the seed for an Atlantic Basin tropical storm or hurricane each season.
Regardless of whether this system becomes a threat, now is a good time to make sure you have a plan before a hurricane hits.

MORE: Retired Atlantic Hurricane Names