Karl Weakens to a Tropical Depression; Still Could Pass Near Bermuda This Weekend

September 21,2016
Tropical Depression Karl is, for now, losing the battle against a hostile tropical environment, but is expected to make a comeback and pass near Bermuda this weekend.
As of Wednesday night, Karl was centered over 700 miles south-southeast of Bermuda.
(MORE: Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Information

An upper-level low to the west of Karl has wreaked havoc with its organization. The most vigorous convective clusters have, therefore, been displaced from the center of circulation over the last day or two. Thunderstorm activity has rebounded a bit as of Wednesday night.
Until that upper low weakens or moves farther west from Karl, it is not expected to strengthen much, and could be downgraded to a tropical wave if shear strengthens.
At any rate, Karl is forecast to move northwest along the southwestern periphery of a ridge of high pressure in the central Atlantic the next couple of days, well north of the Leeward Islands.
(MORE: Mid-Season Atlantic Report Card)

Projected Path

As Karl reaches the western periphery of the aforementioned area of high pressure, it will begin to turn north by Friday.
Assuming wind shear finally relaxes, Karl should then regain strength, getting an additional boost from warmer water, adding instability to the air mass to generate more thunderstorms.
Karl will then take a sharp turn northeast this weekend. How sharp the turn is in relation to Bermuda will determine how close it passes to the archipelago this weekend, and thus the impacts there. For now, this is still a bit of a close call, however, our latest forecast guidance is trending farther east of Bermuda.
(FORECAST: Bermuda)
Residents and visitors of Bermuda should still monitor the progress of Karl closely for any forecast changes.
Karl is no threat to the U.S., other than the possible generation of some larger swells reaching the East Coast.

MORE: Hurricanes from Above