Hurricane Newton Intensifying Ahead of Baja California Landfall; Could Bring Moisture to Southwest U.S.

September 5,2016
Newton, a rapidly intensifying hurricane, will continue to strengthen, and is expected to make landfall over the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning, likely as a Category 2 hurricane. It will then make a second landfall over northwest Mexico's mainland late Tuesday into early Wednesday, before drifting into the Southwest U.S.
A hurricane warning has been issued for Baja California Sur, from Cabo San Lazaro to Mulege, including Cabo San Lucas. Winds of 75 mph or greater are expected in this region.
A tropical storm warning is in effect from north of Cabo San Lazaro to Punta Abreojos, north of Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista, and from Mazatlan to Puerto Libertad. Winds of 39 mph or greater are expected along these coasts and are possible inland.
A hurricane watch is in effect from Guaymas to Puerto Libertad, Mexico.

Watches and Warnings

Newton is forecast to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa, as well as Baja California Sur, through midweek. Isolated amounts of up to 15 inches are possible in some areas.
This copious amount of rainfall could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in the mountainous terrain.

Additional Rainfall through Wednesday

Here's the latest from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):

• Hurricane Newton was located about 125 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, as of Monday evening, local time.
• The system is forecast to strengthen as it moves northwestward over the next 12 hours or so leading up to landfall and could be a Category 2 hurricane as it makes landfall in the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning.
• It will then make a second landfall, likely as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, over northwest Mexico's mainland late Tuesday into early Wednesday.
• Locally heavy rain, along with life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are expected for coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit and Sinaloa, as well as Baja California Sur, through midweek.
• Swells generated by this storm along the coasts of southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.
• This system will then impact the Southwest U.S. later this week as a tropical depression (more on this below).

(MORE: Hurricane Season Outlook | Hurricane Central)

Current Storm Status

As you can see on the NHC forecast cone below, Hurricane Newton is expected to move northwestward over the next day or so, and reach the southern portion of Baja California on Tuesday morning as a Category 2 hurricane. It will then turn more north-northwest and eventually north and make a second landfall, likely as a tropical storm or Category 1 hurricane, over northwest Mexico's mainland late Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Projected Path

Heavy Rain for the Southwest U.S. Later this Week?

After Newton makes landfall in northwest Mexico, it will continue on northward into the Southwest U.S. as a tropical depression by Wednesday night.
Parts of Arizona and far western New Mexico, including Tucson, Arizona, could pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain from Wednesday night into Thursday night. Some locations may see as much as 5 inches in localized heavy downpours.

Rainfall Through Thursday

This rain should provide some drought relief to the Desert Southwest. Currently, about 72 percent of Arizona is classified in the "moderate drought" category, according to the most recent drought monitor.
However, flash flooding will be a concern in Arizona and far western New Mexico within any areas of slow-moving heavy rain.
Check back with us at weather.com for updates on this system.

MORE: Images of Hurricane Eyes