Hermine a Coastal Flood, Erosion Menace in Delmarva, New Jersey, Long Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts

Jon Erdman
Published: September 5,2016
Hermine is expected to slowly meander off the Northeast coast through Tuesday, and will continue to impact areas from the the Jersey Coast to southeast New England with battering waves, coastal flooding and beach erosion over the next couple of days. Impacts are expected to gradually lessen on Tuesday and Wednesday, but may still be life-threatening.
Hermine's winds are decreasing, but winds near the coast may continue to gust to 50-60 mph through Tuesday morning.
(MORE: Latest News | Interactive Hermine Tracker)
Hermine is expected to continue to bring tropical storm force winds to the southeast New England coast. Hermine is anticipated to move clsoer to the coast into Tuesday which means there may still be an uptick in its capability to generate waves and there is still a chance some of those stronger winds are able to bend back toward the coast.

Hermine's Current Wind Field

Despite being a post-tropical cyclone, tropical storm warnings are in effect from the coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor, New Haven, Connecticut, to Sagamore Beach, Massachusetts, Block Island (Rhode Island), and for the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.

Watches and Warnings

National Weather Service (NWS) policy allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to issue advisories on and issue tropical storm watches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones when the system continues to pose a significant threat to life and property. This policy change was implemented after Superstorm Sandy.
No matter what meteorologists call this storm off the East Coast in the days ahead, the impacts will be dangerous.
(MORE: Explaining Tropical vs. Non-Tropical Cyclones)
Here are details on the potential impacts and meteorology behind this event.
(MORE: Send Your Hermine Photos)

Impacts

Slow-moving storms inherently have uncertainty. Hermine is no different. Here are the three uncertainties still in play.

• Where exactly the low-pressure center stalls or meanders
• How long it lingers

Here are the potential impacts.

Coastal Flooding/Beach Erosion/High Surf

• Probability: Happening now
• Where: From southeast New England to the Jersey Coast, particularly Long Island and the Jersey shore; also, the west end of Long Island Sound, Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, Raritan Bay and other inlets will be susceptible (especially at high tide).
• Threats: Moderate, possibly damaging surf with battering waves, potentially moderate coastal flooding, significant beach/dune erosion, rip currents over multiple high tide cycles. Flooding of back bays and sounds are also a threat, given the long-lived nature of this event.
• Timing: Seas will slowly wind down Tuesday into Wednesday.
• Forecast water levels above ground at high tide, according to the latest NHC forecast:
  • Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor on Long Island: 1 to 2 feet
• Maps: NHC Potential Storm Surge Inundation | NHC Prototype Storm Surge Alert Map

(FORECAST: Montauk, New York | Atlantic City, New Jersey | Nantucket Island)

Life-threatening waves will continue to batter the shore Tuesday, and those waves will top the following tidal levels.
Below is a table of the next three high tides for various points along the East Coast.
For now, the majority of forecast guidance is pointing toward the highest tide levels with the Monday late morning/midday high tide, though coastal flooding will continue through several high tide cycles. Flooding of back bays may become worse with each high tide, as water cannot drain to the ocean.

Hampton Roads, Virginia (Sewells Point)	12:39 am Tuesday	1:05 pm Tuesday	1:18 am Wednesday
Ocean City, Maryland	11:24 pm Monday	11:52 am Tuesday	11:46 pm Tuesday
Atlantic City, New Jersey	10:55 pm Monday	11:25 am Tuesday	11:35 pm Tuesday
Sandy Hook, New Jersey	11:27 pm Monday	11:58 am Tuesday	12:11 am Wednesday

Model Forecast Wave Heights 24 Hours From Now

High Winds

• Probability:
  • Slight (Delaware beaches to Long Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts shore)
• Threats: Wind gusts over 40 mph may lead to sporadic power outages and downed tree limbs near the coast.
• Timing: Gusty winds are happening now on eastern Long Island, southern Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. For example, A buoy just south of Montauk Point on the eastern end of Long Island recently gusted to 54 mph.

Current Winds, Gusts

Heavy Rain

• Probability: Low to moderate (southeast New England): 1 to 2 inches possible
• Threats: The heaviest rain should remain offshore, but eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and its offshore islands, run the greatest risk for heavy rain.
• Timing: Mainly Early Tuesday with lingering showers possible into Wednesday.
• Uncertainty: The exact path of this storm will dictate if any rain can back in from the Atlantic.

Rainfall Outlook Through Wednesday

(VIDEO: Where More Than a Foot of Rain Fell)

Forecast Track: Stuck

Hermine was located about 120 miles south-southeast of the eastern tip of Long Island, as of Monday evening.

Current Storm Status

As the NHC forecast path shows, Hermine's center is not forecast to move much over the next few days, but will slowly meander off the New England coast through Wednesday. Hermine'c center could get close to Nantucket on Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Projected Path

Hermine was steered northeast around the west side of the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure system. It was also pulled somewhat by a southward dip in the jet stream, or trough, moving through the Great Lakes and Northeast.
But changes are about to occur.
That Great Lakes/Northeast upper trough will bypass Hermine into the North Atlantic without grabbing hold of the storm and taking it along, as more frequently happens in the western Atlantic.
Upper-level high pressure building to the north and east of Hermine will trap the system for several days.
Whether Hermine gets away from the coast before dissipating or not remains to be seen.
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest on this situation.

MORE: Hermine Impacts (PHOTOS)