'He Could Be Anywhere': Search Continues For Missing Georgia Toddler Following Tornado Outbreak

Eric Chaney
Published: January 26,2017
Rescue crews continue to search for a missing 2-year-old amid the scattered remains of a southwestern Georgia mobile home park decimated by a tornado on Sunday.
Detrez Green’s mother told authorities he slipped away from her Sunday afternoon and toddled into their kitchen just before a tornado sent an oak tree crashing through their home.
Much of the mobile home park is now rubble, WALB.com reported, creating a never-ending list of possibilities of where the toddler could be.
(MORE:  Weather Pattern Change On the Way)
Search crews are combing "every inch, because we are talking about a two-year-old," Albany-Dougherty Search and Rescue Commander Chuck Mitchell told the station. "Not only on the ground, but if we still have trees in the area, we have to search up in the trees. He could be anywhere."

A rescue worker enters a hole in the back of a mobile home Monday, Jan. 23, 2017, in Big Pine Estates that was damaged by a tornado, in Albany, Georgia.
(AP Photo/Branden Camp)

Adijah Rainey, the boy's mother, said that she did not see Detrez "leaving the home or being swept away," emergency management officials told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
"He was playing with a toy the last time I saw him," father Kevian Green told the Associated Press. "I just hope they can find him."
Officials put the search on hold Wednesday evening due to darkness but were back on the job Thursday, picking carefully through the masses of twisted metal, downed trees and scattered household belongings for any sign of the boy.
"They don't move a foot until they see dirt," Albany Fire Captain Bobby Spargo told WALB. "So, if they've been past it, it's been checked, and that's the way they proceed in their search efforts."
Officials told WALB that crews will continue to search until the boy is found, and while they appreciate the community offering to help, the search is not currently open to outside volunteers because of the dangerous conditions.
"I just keep asking God if he's alive that he protect him and bring him back safe," Albany resident Evelyn Solomon told WALB. "And if he's not, please just direct them to him so the family can have closure."
MORE: Tornado Outbreak Hits South

January 21-23, 2017 Tornado Outbreak One of Largest Winter Outbreaks on Record in U.S.

January 26,2017
The Jan. 21-23, 2017 tornado outbreak was one of the largest outbreaks on record not only for January, but for any winter month, according to data from the National Weather Service.
(MORE: Where January Tornadoes Occur | Tornado Central)
Over a roughly 48-hour period from the morning of Jan. 21 through Jan. 23, at least 62 tornadoes have been confirmed either by National Weather Service damage surveys in eight southern states from Texas and Arkansas to Florida to South Carolina.

Preliminary tornado reports from Jan. 21-23, 2017. Some tornadoes may not be shown in this loop, if they were not initially reported to NOAA/SPC as tornadoes.

According to data from The Weather Channel severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes, this latest outbreak spawned the second largest number of tornadoes for any January outbreak, topped only the January 21-22, 1999 outbreak.
This latest outbreak is also the third largest on record for any winter month of December, January or February in reliable records dating to 1950. The infamous Super Tuesday 2008 outbreak also exceeded the count from the Jan. 2017 outbreak.

Five Largest U.S. Tornado Outbreaks in December-February
(1950-2017; Source: Dr. Greg Forbes/The Weather Channel; NWS for 2017 estimate)

Jan. 21-22, 1999	129 tornadoes
Feb. 5-6, 2008 ("Super Tuesday")	86 tornadoes
Jan. 21-23, 2017	62 tornadoes (confirmed)
Jan. 29-30, 2013	56 tornadoes
Jan. 7-8, 2008	49 tornadoes

This outbreak has now pushed the tornado count for January 2017 to 113, the second highest total for any January on record since 1950, and only the second time that count has topped 100, according to Forbes. January 1999 had an incredible 212 tornadoes.
To put this in perspective, the 20-year average (1996-2015) U.S. tornado count in July is 112.

Outbreak Details 

At least 20 deaths are being blamed on severe weather across the Deep South and Gulf Coast.
(NEWS: Latest Severe Impacts)
Sadly, the tornado death toll now tops the toll from all of 2016, and is the deadliest January for tornadoes in the U.S. since 1969.
A deadly EF3 tornado touched down in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, early on Jan. 21, which caused considerable damage and killed four people.
At least 24 tornadoes have been confirmed in Georgia.
Twelve deaths are being blamed on a tornado (or tornadoes) that struck Thomas, Brooks, Berrien County and Cook Counties in Georgia during the early morning on Jan. 22.
Later that day, a large, long-track tornado carved through the south side of Albany, the Dougherty County seat in southwest Georgia, with a damage swath at least one mile wide, in spots. National Weather Service surveys found at least EF3 damage in Dougherty, Worth and Turner Counties.
This tornado likely continued into Wilcox County, where homes were heavily damaged along American Legion Road near the town of Kramer, Georgia, north of Rebecca, Georgia.
The NWS will continue to survey this tornado track to finalize its path length and intensity in the coming days.
At least a 15-mile non-continuous path was found near Tennille in Washington County from an EF1 tornado, according to a NWS-Peachtree City survey.
Seventeen tornadoes have been confirmed in Alabama.
An EF2 tornado damaged two dozen structures near Gilbertown in Choctaw County, Jan. 21. The next day, an EF1 tornado touched down near Opelika.
Seven tornadoes were confirmed in Louisiana from Jan. 21.
Five homes were damaged in Natchez, Louisiana, from an EF2 tornado, there. Two mobile homes were rolled and destroyed by another EF2 tornado in Bossier Parish.
In South Carolina, another EF2 tornado carved a 13-mile path near Barnwell and Denmark and rolled a mobile home several times, injuring one woman stuck inside.
Finally, NWS meteorologists confirmed a pair of EF1 tornadoes touched down in south Florida before dawn on Jan. 23, producing tree and some structural damage in both Hialeah and Miami Springs.
A rare "high risk" severe weather outlook was issued on the morning of Jan. 22 by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC). This was the first high risk severe weather outlook to be issued by SPC since June 3, 2014, which gives an idea of how unusual they are, though the number of severe reports and tornadoes on Jan. 22 were less than expected.
Strangely enough, rather intense low pressure over the South associated with this storm system took on an eye-like feature, and lead to non-thunderstorm wind damage in Houston and San Antonio on Jan. 22. At least 30,000 were without power in the Houston metro area from these damaging winds at one time.
This impressive system set the January low pressure record for North Little Rock, Arkansas, 29.33 inches of mercury, besting the previous record from Jan. 18, 1982.

MORE: Severe Weather in the South, Jan. 2017 (PHOTOS)

Winter Storm Leo Kills at Least 5 in Snowy, Rainy Trek Across West, Plains, Midwest

Sean Breslin and Ada Carr
Published: January 26,2017
Winter Storm Leo pushed into the Plains and Midwest midweek after several days of rain and snow in the West, and its combined impacts were blamed for at least five deaths.
The potent winter storm dumped as much as three feet of snow in northern Arizona before moving east; in parts of the Plains, travel was shut down as up to 22 inches of heavy snow fell. Some cities declared snow emergencies and closed schools as a response to the winter storm.
(MORE: Spring 2017 Temperature Outlook)
Here's how Leo impacted each state along its journey.

Wisconsin

Top snowfall total: 10.5 inches, Rock Springs
Snow piled up quickly in parts of Wisconsin Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, which led to numerous accidents in the southern portion of the state, WKOW.com reported. A snow emergency was declared in Madison for Wednesday and Thursday nights because of Leo, according to the Wisconsin State Journal.
Schools in Madison, Tomah and Viroqua were closed Wednesday, according to the Associated Press.
Some residents in snow-starved areas of the state welcomed the wintry blast, as Thomas Haderlein, a member of Homestead High School's ski team in Mequon, told WTMJ-TV.
"Finally, we can have a practice in the snow," he told the station. "It's the most fun we've had all season. We had a huge snowball fight. We look forward to this all year."

Minnesota

Top snowfall total: 11 inches, Stewartville
Roads in southern Minnesota were treacherous Wednesday morning, and in Minneapolis, authorities responded to several crashes on snow-covered roads, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Iowa

Top snowfall total: 14.5 inches, Hawarden
Numerous accidents were reported Tuesday night in the Sioux City area, and officials expected to continue responding to such reports through Wednesday morning as conditions remained poor, the Sioux City Journal reported. East of Le Mars, a female driver died on icy Highway 3 when she lost control of her car and collided head-on with another vehicle, the report added. The woman's identity has not been released.
"We definitely had some accidents, cars in ditches, with the slick roadways. I think we have taken one person to the hospital with minor injuries since I came on shift a few hours ago," Police Sgt. Jim Cunningham told the Sioux City Journal. "But other than that, just a lot of slipping and sliding with cars in ditches right now and I only expect that to get worse."
Multiple school districts remained on a delay Thursday morning, according to the Fort Dodge Messenger.

Nebraska

Top snowfall total: 22 inches, near Merriman
Parts of western Nebraska got nearly 2 feet of snow from Leo, but in Omaha, it only took a few inches to cause big travel problems Wednesday.
According to the Omaha World-Herald, police were stretched so thin by car crashes that authorities stopped taking property-damage accident reports for a period Wednesday morning. No serious injuries were reported in collisions, the report added.
In eastern Nebraska, some schools started two hours late Wednesday morning, according to the Omaha World-Herald.

South Dakota

Top snowfall total: 18 inches, Pickstown
At the peak of Leo's impacts on the state, a stretch of Interstate 90 from Kadoka to Chamberlain, South Dakota – spanning more than 100 miles – was closed due to dangerous driving conditions.
Officials issued a snow alert for the city of Sioux Falls Tuesday night as Leo cranked up in the southeastern South Dakota city, which banned parking along some streets where plows needed room to work, according to the Sioux Falls Argus Leader.
Sioux Falls schools started late Wednesday morning, as did several other districts in the area, the Argus Leader also reported.

Leo's Snow Causes Problems in West

Two days after a motorist plunged off a winding road on a snowy Southern California mountain, authorities pulled him to safety early Wednesday, according to the AP. The 22-year-old man was found in his vehicle about 75 feet down, near Mount Baldy, the report added. The extent of his injuries weren't immediately known, but the San Bernardino Sun cited a report that said he suffered broken bones.
Heavy snow in the Sierra Nevada triggered an avalanche that shut down a highway just west of Lake Tahoe and caught two cars in its path. No one was injured. Officials warned of continuing avalanche danger at all elevations of the Sierra.
In northern Nevada, schools were canceled after more than a half-foot of snow fell near Reno.
Low-elevation snow dusted rural communities just north of Los Angeles while resort communities to the east in the San Bernardino Mountains were digging out from more heavy snow. Many schools in the inland region closed.
Idaho Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter signed a disaster declaration for Washington County due to snow accumulations. A vacant bar in Payette, Idaho, collapsed early Sunday under the weight of snow.
Parts of Arizona felt the effects of Winter Storm Leo, which dropped snow in many areas of northern and eastern parts of the state for days. Public schools in Flagstaff were closed Tuesday because of weather and road conditions, with authorities reporting roads and highways in the Flagstaff area still covered with snow and slick in spots.
Tuesday evening, a 36-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 180 was reopened north of Flagstaff after being closed for more than a day, the AP reported. The area received about three feet of snow from the winter storm.

Leo's Warm Side: Deadly California Flooding

California Gov. Jerry Brown declared a state of emergency for 50 California counties that were drenched by storms, including Winter Storm Leo, which have caused tens of millions of dollars in damage.
In this latest round of storms to pound the state, at least four people died, three were missing and others were rescued from raging floodwaters.
Anguished relatives gathered along a creek in Alameda County southeast of San Francisco as searchers looked for 18-year-old Jayda Jenkins, whose car plunged into the rushing waterway after a collision late Saturday. Three days later, her vehicle was recovered, but there was no sign of her inside, the AP reported. Officials said the seat belt had been unfastened and several windows were broken, which may be a sign Jenkins tried to escape.
Deputies said Wednesday that they found clothing that matched the description of what Jenkins was wearing at the time of the crash, NBC Bay Area reported.
"Because I'm her mother, I'm not losing hope. I'm praying that my child is coming home," Denielle Jenkins told the AP.
Two other people remained missing after being reported in waters off Pebble Beach on Saturday. The search along the Monterey Peninsula was suspended.
In Los Angeles, receding stormwater revealed a body in dense vegetation at a regional park in the Harbor City area. The cause of death was not known, but the Fire Department said the body may be that of a man reported missing Sunday night.
Information from the Associated Press was used in this report.

Winter Misery Index: Who's Had It the Worst?

Brian Donegan
Published: January 26,2017
The final month of meteorological winter (December-February) begins next week, and some cities have had plenty of miserable cold and snowy weather, while others haven't had much of a winter at all.
(MORE: Most of U.S. Has Passed Coldest Time of Year)
According to the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index, or AWSSI, more than a dozen locations across the nation have seen a severe or extreme season of cold and snow. All but one are west of the Mississippi River.
The index takes into account the "intensity and persistence of cold weather, the frequency and amount of snow, and the amount and persistence of snow on the ground," the Midwest Regional Climate Center says. Wind and mixed precipitation, such as freezing rain, are not a part of the index.
For any given location, the start date of the winter season is defined as when the first measurable snowfall occurs, or when the first high temperature 32 degrees or lower is recorded. The start date is Dec. 1 for any location that does not see either of those happen prior to that date.
(MORE: The Heaviest Snowfall Records in the U.S.)
The index uses five categories – mild, moderate and average to severe and extreme – to rate the severity of winter weather at any given point in the season.

AWSSI national index values as of early Jan. 26, 2017. City locations color-coded based on severity of winter, as shown by legend at left.
(Dr. Barbara Mayes Boustead and Steven Hilberg)

"The categories are site-specific ... because what constitutes a severe winter, say, in Washington D.C. or Atlanta would be considered mild in Chicago or Minneapolis," said Dr. Barbara Mayes Boustead, a co-creator of AWSSI, and a forecaster at the National Weather Service in Omaha, Nebraska.
Across the northern tier of the Lower 48, 11 cities have had extreme winter weather conditions as of early Jan. 26, according to the index, but many more have had mild winter conditions, especially across the Midwest, South and East. Note that mild doesn't just refer to temperatures, but winter weather conditions have been mild compared to average, based on the index's factors mentioned above.
Let's take a look at some individual cities and see just how harsh or mild their winter has been through this point in time.
(MORE: Portland, Oregon, May Be America's Most Winter-Fatigued City in 2016-17)

The Worst: Northwest

Well-above-average snowfall played a role in the extreme winter misery two Northwest cities have seen so far. Temperatures have been below average for much of December and January, as well.

• Pendleton, Oregon: This northeast Oregon city was 21.3 inches above average in the snowfall department as of Jan. 25, with a seasonal total of 31.9 inches. Pendleton only averages 15.3 inches of snow in an entire winter, based on 1981-2010 averages, so they have already doubled that number. A chunk of its snowfall came from Winter Storm Jupiter during Jan. 10-11, which dumped 8.4 inches of snow in those two days. The 5.5 inches that accumulated on Jan. 10 alone was a record snowfall for that date. The winter season severity index has been in the extreme category since Dec. 12.
• Walla Walla, Washington: Not far behind Pendleton is its neighbor to the north, with 25.9 inches of snow as of Jan. 25, or 18.6 inches above average.

The black line shows the quick rise into the "extreme" category in Pendleton, Oregon, on the AWSSI, due to the cold and snowy conditions so far this winter.

Mild to Moderate: Much of the East

A lack of persistent cold and snow have played a role in the mild winter conditions two eastern cities have seen, especially in January.

• Syracuse, New York: After spending Nov. 20 through all of December in the severe and extreme categories on the severity index, the snowiest large city in the United States was downgraded into the average category on Jan. 12 and improved to moderate by Jan. 24. Winter started off with well-above-average snowfall when Winter Storm Argos dumped 25.1 inches of snow at Syracuse Hancock International Airport, which is a record November snowstorm for the Salt City. However, this month is currently running 21.2 inches below average for snowfall, with only 6.2 inches accumulating between Jan. 1 and Jan. 25. Temperatures have also been generally above average the past several weeks.
• Washington D.C.: Our nation's capital has spent the majority of winter in the moderate and mild categories on the severity index. Only 0.4 inches of snow have been measured at Washington's Reagan Airport this season, which is 6.6 inches below average through Jan. 25. Temperatures this month have been as warm as the low 70s on Jan. 12, which was 29 degrees above average for the date. Many residents in the mid-Atlantic are likely thinking, "What winter?"

The black line shows how Syracuse, New York, has fallen from the "extreme or severe" category to the "moderate" category on the AWSSI, due to recent above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall.

More than two dozen locations, primarily across the Midwest, South and East, had an AWSSI that was "mild," or the least harsh category, as of early Jan. 26.
Among them are St. Louis, Atlanta, Nashville, Washington D.C., Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, all of which have seen a mild December-January relative to average. Only one Northeast city has seen a severe winter so far – Caribou, Maine – and they've already seen 77.5 inches of snow through Jan. 25, which is 22.1 inches above average.
(MORE: Spring 2017 Temperature Outlook)
If you're curious about our 49th state, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, has had a mild winter weather season so far, according to the AWSSI. November and December ended up 12.6 and 7.9 degrees above average for those respective months. And, through Jan. 25, America's northernmost city is running 11.6 degrees above average for the month. Snowfall is also 3.9 inches below average on the season, so far, in Utqiagvik.

Two of Nation's Worst Droughts See Significant Improvement

Linda Lam
Published: January 26,2017
Two of the nation's worst drought areas have seen significant improvement thanks to several rounds of quenching precipitation in recent weeks.
Several rounds of heavy rain and snow have brought a major reduction to the drought in Southern California, while a stormy pattern also brought beneficial rain to areas of the South. As a result, the U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday revealed the Lower 48 has no area in exceptional drought, the worst category possible, for the first time since April 4, 2011.
This rainfall was badly needed in both California and the South, but in some locations, the rain came with deadly flooding and severe thunderstorms.

Good News For Southern California

51.4 percent of California remains in various degrees of drought, ranging from moderate and severe to a small area categorized as extreme. Those drought conditions are all confined to the southern half of the Golden State.
Though a little more than half of California remains in at least moderate drought, that figure is the lowest since April 2013, nearly three years ago. Exceptional drought has been wiped out for the first time since Jan. 21, 2014.
(MORE: 'Januburied' in the Sierra Nevada)

Comparison of drought conditions in California from Jan. 24, 2017 to Jan. 5, 2016.
(U.S. Drought Monitor)

The most notable reduction in drought over the past week was in the severe and extreme categories. The area covered by severe drought fell from 44.4 percent to 26.5 percent, while extreme drought was almost wiped away, dropping from 24.3 percent to 2.2 percent.
In a little more than a year's time, the area covered by drought in the state has been nearly halved, while exceptional drought dropped from 45 percent on Jan. 5, 2016 to zero percent as of Tuesday.

Observed rainfall for selected California cities from Jan. 1-Jan. 25 compared to average for this time period.

Actual rainfall totals this month have been impressive, especially compared to recent years.
Through Wednesday, Los Angeles has received 8.38 inches of rain so far this January. That's more rain in 24 days than the city received in all of 2012 (8.15 inches), 2013 (3.60 inches) and 2015 (7.66 inches).
For many locations around the Bay Area, including San Francisco, this January has been the wettest since 1998.
Central California's Big Sur Station has seen 43.41 inches of precipitation this rainy season, which is classified as the 12-month period from July 1 through June 30. This already exceeds the historical average for those 12 months, which is 41.91 inches.
Given that this has been a multi-year dry spell, more precipitation is still needed to completely eliminate drought conditions from the southern half of California.
The U.S. Drought Monitor said groundwater levels remain "critically low" in some areas, despite the recent precipitation. Water supply comes from groundwater in the central foothills on the east side of the San Joaquin Valley where residents of Tuolumne County with dry wells are still receiving water that is trucked in.

Southern Drought Also Sees Improvement

Drought conditions in the Southeast have also undergone a significant reduction thanks to another recent soaking in the last week. This is especially the case when compared to conditions late last fall, when damaging wildfires struck the region.
(MORE: Destructive Gatlinburg Wildfire)

Observed precipitation Jan. 19-Jan. 26.
(NOAA)

In the past week, the area covered by extreme drought in the Southeast fell from 9 percent to near 1 percent, with the remaining pockets isolated to parts of north Georgia and central Alabama. In late-November, the area covered by extreme drought was nearly 32 percent.
The U.S. Drought Monitor includes Alabama, Georgia, Florida, the Carolinas and Virginia in its Southeast region.

Drought monitor as of January 24, 2017.
(U.S. Drought Monitor)

In Mississippi, the drought has been nearly eradicated. Just 11 percent of the state remains in drought, down from 55 percent last week, and 100 percent late last fall. Tennessee drought coverage has fallen from 100 percent in late November 2015 to 17 percent as of Tuesday.
More rounds of rain will be needed to completely end the drought in parts of the South.
Precipitation totals for the past 365 days still remain a foot or more below average in a swath from northeast Mississippi and northern Alabama to the western Carolinas, Tuesday's Drought Monitor report noted.

MORE: California Flooding

Pattern Change Brings Winter Back to the Northeast, Midwest, South; Gives Storm-Weary West a Break

Brian Donegan
Published: January 26,2017
A pattern change is underway over the U.S., which is bringing a well-deserved break from the recent stormy siege in the West and temperatures closer to late-January averages to parts of the Midwest and East.
The recent setup has featured a persistent jet stream southward dip over the West with a northward jet stream bulge over the eastern half of the nation. This has trapped stormy, chilly weather in the West and allowed mild temperatures to engulf the East.
(MORE: Spring 2017 Temperature Outlook)
That pattern is now essentially flipping, with a high-pressure ridge over the West and a broad southward plunge in the jet stream overtaking the Midwest and Northeast.
This is allowing warmer, drier air to gradually build into the West as somewhat colder air drifts southward out of Canada into the East.

Early Week vs. Late Week Weather Pattern

We recently named Portland, Oregon, America's most winter-fatigued city because it saw five winter storms in about five weeks. One of those storms was Winter Storm Jupiter, the city's heaviest snowstorm since February 1995, which brought 8 inches of snow to the Portland National Weather Service office.
For comparison, Syracuse, New York, the snowiest large city in the United States, has only received 6.2 inches of snow this month, through Jan. 25. That is over 21 inches below average for January.

Friday

By Friday, most areas in the Midwest and South will see temperatures 15 to 25 degrees colder than earlier in the week, and lake-effect snow will continue to pile up downwind of the five Great Lakes.
(MORE: Prolonged Lake-Effect Snow Event Underway; Feet of Snow Expected in Great Lakes Snowbelts)
Highs in the Southeast will generally be in the 40s and 50s, with 60s as far south as central Florida. Highs in the 30s and lower 40s will remain in the Northeast, still above average for late January, but cooler than earlier in the week. Pleasant conditions continue in the West.

Friday's Forecast

Saturday

South Florida will finally see relief from the warm temperatures by Saturday, with highs only making it into the 70s. North and central Florida may only see highs in the upper 50s or low 60s. Most of the Northeast will be stuck in the 30s to near 40 degrees.
(MORE: Major Northeast Snowstorms Have a Distinct Peak, And It's Now)
Highs should warm into the 50s in the Pacific Northwest, and 50s or 60s should dominate much of California and the Desert Southwest. Cold air inversions in the Great Basin, however, will keep highs in the cold 20s in locations such as Boise, Idaho, and Salt Lake City, Utah, with at least morning, if not all-day, low clouds and fog.

Saturday's Forecast

Sunday

Somewhat colder air makes its way into the Northeast. Some places will get stuck in the 20s for highs in Pennsylvania, New York state and interior New England.
(MORE: Most of U.S. Has Passed Coldest Time of Year)
While lake-effect snow bands continue in the Great Lakes, some snow showers are possible as far south as the southern Appalachians and hills of Kentucky and east Tennessee.
The weather in the West remains quiet, and highs in the 70s should return to southern California. Temperatures in the 60s are expected in much of central and northern California, with 50s in the Pacific Northwest. The Front Range of the Rockies will also see highs in the 50s return, including Denver.
However, as stated before, the Great Basin cold will remain locked in, with 20s for highs in Boise, Idaho, and Salt Lake City, Utah.

Sunday's Forecast

While some light rain is possible in the Pacific Northwest Sunday, rain and mountain snow should hold off in California and the rest of the West until Tuesday or Wednesday.
(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Forecast Rain/Snow)

MORE: Winter Storm Leo (Photos)

Prolonged Lake-Effect Snow Event Underway; Feet of Snow Expected in Great Lakes Snowbelts

Brian Donegan
Published: January 26,2017
As winter makes a comeback in the East late this week and into the weekend, lake-effect snow will also return to the Great Lakes snowbelts for several days, and some localized areas will be measuring the snow in feet.
The National Weather Service has issued lake-effect snow warnings for areas east of lakes Ontario and Erie in New York state into Sunday evening.
(MORE: Pattern Change Brings Winter Back to the Northeast, Midwest)

Winter Alerts

Although temperatures aloft will only be marginally cold enough to support lake effect, generally between minus 8 and minus 12 degrees Celsius (10 to 18 degrees Fahrenheit) around a mile above the surface, deep moisture in the atmosphere will aid in the production of intense bands of snow, especially east of lakes Ontario and Erie.
(MORE: The Science Behind Lake-Effect Snow)
Multiple bands of snow are expected downwind of lakes Superior, Michigan and Huron, so accumulations in those snowbelts will generally be less than in the Erie and Ontario snowbelts, where the activity will eventually become more organized into a single, intense band off each lake.

Between 3 and 6 inches of snow are possible by early Friday in the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie and the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario in upstate New York. Lake effect may weaken briefly Friday morning, before ramping up again by Friday afternoon or Friday night.
(MORE: Climate Change Could Bring More Lake-Effect Snow)
Significant lake-effect snow will likely continue right through the weekend over all the Great Lakes snowbelts, with the heaviest bands expected to set up in the Chautauqua Ridge east of Lake Erie and the Tug Hill Plateau east of Lake Ontario in upstate New York.

Current Conditions and Radar

A shift in winds ahead of a disturbance may push heavy snow into the Buffalo metro area on Saturday, where a lake-effect snow watch is in effect.
Wind gusts over 30 mph are expected, and blowing and drifting snow may lead to whiteouts, especially in the most intense snow bands. These kinds of conditions are notorious for causing pile-ups on highways, so it is best to avoid driving through lake-effect snow bands, if possible.
Since this is a four-day event that won't end until Sunday evening, snowfall will continue to pile up, with very impressive totals expected in localized spots.

Snowfall Forecast

The greatest totals will be east of Lake Ontario, where storm totals may exceed 3 feet in the Tug Hill Plateau. East of Lake Erie, south of Buffalo, 2 feet or more of snow could fall by late Sunday.
(MORE: The Heaviest Snowfall Records in the U.S.)
Lighter accumulations are expected in the upper Great Lakes, but many areas will still receive at least 6 inches of snow over the next several days.
The heaviest accumulations will mainly be north of Syracuse, south of Buffalo and east of Cleveland, but those cities could all see a few snow squalls through the weekend.
(FORECAST: Watertown, New York | Oswego, New York | Dunkirk, New York)
Syracuse – the snowiest large city in the United States – has only received 6.2 inches of snow this month, through Jan. 25. That's more than 21 inches below average for January.

MORE: Lake-Effect Snow

This Date in Weather History for January 27,2017 from weatherforyou.com

Weather History
For Friday,January 27,2017

 

 

 

 

1772 - The "Washington and Jefferson Snowstorm" occurred. George Washington reported three feet of snow at Mount Vernon, and Thomas Jefferson recorded about three feet at Monticello. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1966 - Oswego, NY, was in the midst of a five day lake effect storm which left the town buried under 102 inches of snow. (David Ludlum)

1967 - Residents of Chicago, IL, began to dig out from a storm which produced 23 inches of snow in 29 hours. The snow paralyzed the city and suburbs for days, and business losses were enormous. (David Ludlum)

1987 - A powerful storm moving into the western U.S. produced 13 inches of snow at Daggett Pass NV, and 16 inches in the Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Winds gusted to 63 mph at Reno NV, and wind gusts in Oregon exceeded 80 mph. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - The nation got a breather from winter storms, however, cold arctic air settled into the southeastern U.S. Hollywood FL reported a record low reading of 39 degrees. (National Weather Summary)

1989 - The last half of January was bitterly cold over most of Alaska. Nearly thirty stations established all-time record low temperatures. On this date Tanana reported a low of -76 degrees. Daily highs of -66 degrees were reported at Chandalar Lake on the 22nd, and at Ambler on the 26th. (The Weather Channel)

1989 - Low pressure in north central Alaska continued to direct air across northern Siberia and the edges of the Arctic Circle into the state. The temperature at Fairbanks remained colder than 40 degrees below zero for the eighth day in a row. Lows of 68 below at Galena, 74 below at McGrath, and 76 below at Tanana, were new records for the date. Wind chill readings were colder than 100 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary)

1990 - Another in a series of cold fronts brought high winds to the northwestern U.S., and more heavy snow to some of the higher elevations. The series of vigorous cold fronts crossing the area between the 23rd and the 27th of the month produced up to 60 inches of snow in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - Month-to-date snowfall at Boston Logan International Airport totaled 43.1 inches, making January the snowiest month on record.

Quick-hitting rounds of snow to cause slippery travel in eastern US into next week

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

January 26,2017, 2:52:12PM,EST

 

Along with the return of colder, more seasonable air, two storms will bring snow to the eastern United States into next week.

The storms, sometimes referred to as Alberta Clippers, are named for the province in western Canada where they often originate from and their fast-moving nature.
The storms are generally associated with cold air and light snow, due to a lack of moisture. However, they can bring moderate to heavy snow on occasion, especially if they strengthen and slow down upon reaching the Atlantic coast.
"The first clipper storm will drop across the Midwest during Saturday night and will reach parts of the central and southern Appalachians on Sunday night, before turning toward the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.

Snow with the first storm will generally be more of a nuisance.
The snowfall will be light and spotty with most areas likely to receive a few flurries to a coating. However, some locations, especially over the mountains from south-central Pennsylvania to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina, can pick up a couple of inches of snow.
Enough snow can fall to make roads slippery from parts of Missouri and Illinois to portions of eastern Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey with the first storm.
"A second clipper storm will drop southeastward next week," Pydynowski said. "The storm will enter the upper reaches of the Midwest on Monday and likely exit the New England coast during Wednesday."

Initially, the second storm will be poorly organized with small patches of snow from the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians to the Great Lakes region.
However, within these patches of snow, there can be a coating to a few inches of accumulation. Some areas in the Midwest and Appalachians may barely get enough to sweep away. A few communities within this zone can get enough snow to shovel and plow.
The second storm has the greatest potential of the two to quickly strengthen upon nearing the Atlantic coast, which could make it much more disruptive as a result.
How quickly the strengthening occurs with the second storm will determine if and where 6 inches of snow accumulates in the northeastern US Interstate 95 corridor.
"Winds will kick up surrounding the second storm, which can cause some blowing and drifting snow, along with poor visibility," Pydynowski said.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Winter Weather Center
Why is it quiet after a fresh snowfall?
Lake-effect snow to bury the Great Lakes into this weekend
"Both storms can bring enough of a temperature rise and fall to cause the snow to initially melt, then freeze on some roads," Pydynowski said.
Before, during and after the clipper storms will be lake-effect flurries, squalls and shifting bands of steady snow to the lee of the Great Lakes. The lake-effect will bring its share of slippery and dangerous travel into next week.

 

Why is it quiet after a fresh snowfall?

By Kevin Byrne, AccuWeather staff writer

January 26,2017, 12:50:24PM,EST

 

 In the moments after a snowstorm concludes, leaving behind a landscape shrouded in white, the great outdoors often become noticeably quieter.

As it turns out, there's a scientific reason behind the calming silence, with the characteristics of snow playing a big role in how sound can travel.
When light, fluffy snow accumulates on the ground, it acts as a sound absorber, dampening sound waves much like commercial sound-absorbing products.
“Snow is going to be porous, and typically porous materials such as fibers and foams, and things of that sort, absorb sound pretty well,” said David Herrin, a professor at the University of Kentucky’s College of Engineering, who studies acoustics.

Residential street covered in snow with sunny sky. (Photo/LynnKHansen/iStock/Thinkstock)

Usually it takes a couple of inches of snow, but even an inch can be reasonably absorbing, especially if you go higher in frequency, according to Herrin.
Sound absorption is measured on a scale from 0 to 1. Based on previous measurements, sound absorption for snow is in between 0.5 to 0.9, Herrin said.
"That implies that a good amount of sound is going to be absorbed," he said.
However, as the structure of snow changes, the amount of noise in the surrounding environment could increase.
When the snow surface melts and refreezes, it can become hard and reflect sound waves, causing sounds to travel farther and become clearer, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
RELATED:
10 recipes to keep you warm on a snowy day
Hypothermia: How to spot and prevent this cold weather danger
PHOTOS: What are these stunning frost formations?
“Generally after a snowfall, the sound absorption is going to be at a maximum then,” Herrin said. “After a snow has gotten hard or icy, then a lot of the sound is going to bounce back or be reflected at that point.”
“It doesn’t seem as quiet outside in that case.”

---

Have questions, comments, or a story to share? Email Kevin Byrne at Kevin.Byrne@accuweather.com, follow him on Twitter at @Accu_Kevin. Follow us

PHOTOS: What are light pillars?

By Chaffin Mitchell, AccuWeather staff writer

January 26,2017, 9:13:39AM,EST

 Light pillars, or columns of light beaming to the sky, are a spectacle that awes onlookers. Conditions must be just right for these stunning lights to form.

The spectacle made news recently after appearing over Canada's night sky.
Light pillars are an optical phenomenon caused when light is refracted by ice crystals. These lights tend to take on the color of the light source.
"They appear as beams of light to the observer. It is usually caused by street lights. However, any source of light can create a light pillar given proper conditions," AccuWeather Meteorologist David Samuhel said.

For ice crystals to form, the conditions need to be extremely calm and cold, without wind. For the light pillars to show, the ice crystals need to be near the ground.
"Typically, ice crystals are small enough to remain suspended in the air and only form when temperatures are below zero [F]," Samuhel said. "In most instances, temperatures are minus 10 to 20 degrees or colder."
Samuhel said the pillars occur under high pressure without any storm present.
"There is no tie between storms and the pillars," Samuhel said. "A storm system would disrupt the pillar formation with wind and precipitation."
The source of most pillars are man-made, for example street lights and other ground light sources. They differ from auroras for many reasons, but most people have heard of auroras because they cover a much larger area.
"Auroras are observed across a much wider area, since they occur many miles up in the atmosphere. Light pillars occur close to the ground in the lowest levels of the atmosphere," Samuhel said.
As far as Samuhel knows, light pillars do not show up on radars.
"If you can predict cold and calm conditions, you can probably forecast when light pillars are able to be seen. But, the forecasting of ice crystal formation is more difficult," Samuhel said.
RELATED:
What are light pillars?
Ice Pillars, meteor, halo: A night on the AccuCams
PHOTOS: Light pillars, sunrises and inversions
Long winter nights, dry air increase chance to view aurora
Light pillars have been spotted in the United States. However, they typically occur farther north.
"I believe people have not heard nearly as much about light pillars due to the fact they are mostly observed in very cold climates where few people live," Samuhel said.

 

Lake-effect snow to bury the Great Lakes into this weekend

By Faith Eherts, AccuWeather meteorologist

January 26,2017, 10:56:10AM,EST

 

A return of cold air into the northeastern United States will trigger a significant lake-effect snow event over the next several days.

A storm moving through the Northeast prior to the end of the week will help drag cold air southward from Canada in its wake.
Rain showers will transition to snow showers over parts of the Appalachians and the Ohio Valley into Thursday night.

The colder air will spill in on a brisk northwesterly wind.
This chilly Canadian air moving over the unfrozen Great Lakes will combine to create plenty of lake-effect snow downwind of the lakes.
“Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air much colder than the surface waters of the Great Lakes blows over the warmer lake waters,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Kyle Elliott.
As long as winds persist from the west or northwest, so will the lake-effect snow machine; in this case it looks to be through the end of the weekend.

“A narrow but high-intensity lake-effect snow band can develop and dump feet of snow in locations where it persists for hours, or even days, on end,” said Elliott.
Both the extensive time frame and intensity of this event will result in up to 4 feet of snow in some areas, particularly in parts of southeastern Ontario, Michigan, northwestern Pennsylvania and western New York.
“From Thursday through Monday, some residents downwind of Lake Ontario may be measuring snowfall in yards, instead of feet,” said Elliott.
Much of the affected area will accumulate upwards of a foot of snow by Sunday evening.

Even those outside the heaviest snow bands will find shoveling futile before Monday evening.
“While the heaviest snowfall is expected to occur from Friday night through Sunday morning, more scattered but still locally intense snowfall bands are expected throughout the entire period,” said Elliot.
Several major roadways will be impacted by this widespread and long-lasting snowy weather, including interstates 81, 80, 90 and 75 where they pass through areas downwind of the Great Lakes.

Anyone traveling even short distances through this region over the weekend should take precautions or avoid travel altogether.
“In just a few miles, visibility can drop from over 10 miles to just a few feet in the heaviest lake-effect snow bands,” said Elliott.
“Roadways can go from clear to totally snow covered in just a few hundred yards, and the blinding visibilities greatly heighten the risk for motor vehicle accidents and multi-car pileups.”
Elliott also explained that it is best to reduce speeds significantly and use four-wheel drive, if possible, when driving in snowy weather.
Related Links
Winter Weather Center 2017
10 activities to keep kids busy when you're snowed in
10 recipes to keep you warm on a snowy day
Traffic will be snarled and buildings will be slowly buried through the beginning of next week before the snow tapers off.
Two Alberta Clipper storm systems will move through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, bringing temporary lulls in the lake-effect snowfall, Elliot stated.
While a similar lake-effect event is possible later next week, a repeat of the intensity and duration of the lake-effect event into this weekend is not likely.

 

Germany to thaw next week following bitterly cold January

By Eric Leister, AccuWeather meteorologist

January 26,2017, 6:25:28AM,EST

 

 

A significant change in the weather pattern next week will finally unlock Germany from the bitterly cold air that has dominated much of January.
Some locations in Bavaria, including Munich, have reported temperatures 5-6 degrees Celsius (9-11 degrees Fahrenheit) below normal for the month of January as a whole.
Munich has had five days with an average temperature of 10 degrees Celsius (18 degrees Fahrenheit) or more below normal with a minimum temperature of minus 22 C (minus 7 F) reported on two separate days.

Other locations that have suffered through significant cold outbreaks in January include Stuttgart, Nuremberg and Frankfurt.
The only place to escape the bitter cold was the northwest where near-normal temperatures were reported.
The powerful area of high pressure that has been responsible for this cold weather will finally shift to the east next week allowing much warmer air to be pulled northward as storms approach from the Atlantic.
The chill will begin to ease on Friday across western areas with the warmer air encompassing the entire country next week.
RELATED:
Germany Weather Center
MinuteCast® for your location
Interactive Germany weather radar
The prolonged periods of fog and freezing fog that have plagued the country in January will also come to an end as each storm system brings a period of gusty winds.
“While slightly colder air will follow each storm that crosses Germany, overall temperatures will be much milder than what occurred for much of January,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Courtney Spamer.
No extended cold spells are expected during the first half of February, and this pattern could prevail for much of the month and result in temperatures averaging several degrees above normal.
This change in the weather pattern will also bring more rounds of rain to the country as a whole, which could result in some localized flooding if the same areas get repeated rounds of rain.

 

Days of freezing fog to create dangerous travel, poor air quality over interior western US

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

January 26,2017, 2:38:12PM,EST

 

Freezing fog will settle over approximately 250,000 square miles of the interior western United States into this weekend.

"Clear, calm and moist conditions will allow the fog to form and linger for days east of the Cascades and Sierra Nevada and west of the Rockies," according to AccuWeather Meteorologist Maggie Samuhel.
The persistent fog will be just a nuisance to some people, but it will lead to slow, dangerous travel on area highways and city streets. Significant airline delays are also possible.
Fog will not be a problem in coastal areas, including cities such as Seattle, San Francisco and Portland, Oregon, through this weekend. However, motorists venturing eastward and cross-country on Interstate 80, I-84 and I-90 should be prepared for travel problems.

The foggy conditions will be extensive and affect vast portions of Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, Montana and Wyoming.
"Even much of California's Central Valley will be affected by dense fog during at least the morning hours," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski.
Cities likely to be affected by days of fog include Spokane, Washington; Boise, Idaho; Pendleton, Oregon; Elko, Nevada; Missoula, Montana; Jackson, Wyoming; Salt Lake City and Sacramento, California.
RELATED:
AccuWeather Winter Weather Center
California storms to abate as drought relief continues
PHOTOS: NOAA unveils 1st stunning images from GOES-16 satellite
"Recent rainfall and moist soil could enhance the fog situation enough so that fog fails to burn off in parts of the Central Valley during the afternoons," Pydynowski said.
The fog can reduce the visibility to near zero at times, especially during the late-night and morning hours.
Over the interior West, temperatures will struggle to climb out of the 20s F during the day. Temperatures will dip into the single digits and teens in many locations at night.
These cold, moist conditions will allow ice to build up on exposed, untreated surfaces, which can be dangerous for motorists and pedestrians. The icy conditions will not be limited to bridges and overpasses due to the long-duration event.

While temperatures will be held back in the Central Valley as well, fog should lift enough to allow temperatures to climb above freezing in most areas during the day.
In addition to the dangerous conditions, poor air quality will be a concern for those with cardiovascular and respiratory problems in heavily populated areas. People with such health problems should remain indoors in a climate-controlled environment during the foggy pattern.
"The same mechanisms creating the fog will trap pollutants in the lowest levels of the atmosphere," Samuhel said.
The fog is generally a low-elevation phenomenon. Those in good health wanting to escape the foggy conditions may want to consider a day spent skiing or hiking. Conditions over much of the high country in the region will be bright and sunny during the pattern.
In some cases, the fog may continue into the first part of next week, when winds will pick up over much of the interior West.
Meanwhile, in coastal areas of Southern California, it will be gusty winds that can cause problems late this week.

Severe Weather Alerts - Los Angeles, CA High Wind Warning High Wind Warning in effect from Friday, 1:00 AM PST until Friday, 10:00 PM PST. Source: U.S. National Weather Service

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOS ANGELES/OXNARD HAS ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM PST
FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...AREAS OF NORTHEAST WINDS 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70
MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN
SHOULD BECOME 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES...LEADING TO PROPERTY DAMAGE. STRONG WINDS CAN MAKE
DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS THAT DAMAGING HIGH WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
GREATER ARE LIKELY OR IMMINENT. SECURE ALL LOOSE OUTDOOR
FURNITURE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS. MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
SOURCE.