Hurricane Jose to stir East Coast surf into next week; Where will it track?

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

September 14,2017, 12:54:39AM,EDT

 In the aftermath of Irma, all interests across the East Coast of the United States should keep a close eye on Hurricane Jose as it meanders off the Atlantic coast through next week.

The combination of the flow of air around Jose and a non-tropical system to the north will cause seas and surf to build over much of the western Atlantic.
Jose, currently a Category 1 hurricane, is churning about 500 miles to the east-northeast of the Bahamas.
"We expect Jose to fluctuate between a minimal hurricane and tropical storm over the next several days," according to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski.
The movement of a large area of high pressure, or clockwise flow of air in the atmosphere, will guide Jose along this week.

Jose will generally move in a circular pattern to the south then the northwest then the north into this weekend. This pattern will keep Jose between Bermuda, the Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the U.S.
Strong winds aloft may cause some moisture to be pushed southward, well away from the center of the storm. Some showers and locally gusty thunderstorms may reach the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas.
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Dangerous seas will be stirred along the north- and east-facing beaches of the Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos.
Steering winds will diminish in the vicinity of Jose and will lead to a few scenarios for the path of the storm.
"Jose could remain at sea and pose no direct threat to land," Kottlowski said.
In this at sea scenario, the Northeastern states will be in for an extended period of sunny and warm weather.

"Another scenario includes a westward drift for a time, which could bring Jose close to the coast of the mid-Atlantic and southern New England."
At this time, landfall in the U.S. is unlikely, but it is possible Jose could get close enough to throw clouds, rain and gusty winds as far west as the immediate mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts.
Waters in the vicinity of where Jose may stall are sufficiently warm to support a hurricane or sub-tropical storm next week.
Regardless of Jose’s exact track, seas will be churned up from the Bahamas and Bermuda to the U.S. East Coast and later Nova Scotia and Newfoundland.

The strength and frequency of rip currents will increase at a time when many lifeguards are no longer on duty and people may head to the beach to take advantage of building warmth.
Beach erosion that was inflicted by Irma along the southern Atlantic Seaboard and persistent winds from non-tropical systems in the mid-Atlantic could be exacerbated.
A persistent onshore flow in some locations may lead to coastal flooding at times of high tide for many days even if Jose remains a few hundred miles offshore.
Should Jose move toward the west, it will could push a great deal of water toward the coast and enhance the risk of beach erosion and coastal flooding next week, according to AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist and Chief Operating Officer Evan Myers.
Anyone from Bermuda to the Bahamas, U.S. East Coast and Atlantic Canada should continue to monitor AccuWeather.com for the latest updates on Jose.