Strengthening Enawo to deliver dangerous strike to Madagascar this week

By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist

By Adam Douty, AccuWeather meteorologist

March 4,2017, 11:44:49AM,EST

 

 

Enawo will strengthen into a powerful tropical cyclone before posing a risk to lives and property in Madagascar this week.
As Enawo strengthens this weekend, Madagascar residents should make necessary precautions as impacts from the cyclone will not be limited to the open waters of the southwestern Indian Ocean.
By the end of the weekend, Enawo is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone at a strength equal to a strong Category 1 hurricane in the Atlantic or eastern Pacific oceans. Rain, wind and seas will build around Enawo’s center as it intensifies, posing dangers to shipping interests.
AccuWeather meteorologists are monitoring a scenario that take Enawo into northeastern Madagascar early in the week.

Enawo is expected to strengthen into an intense tropical cyclone (the equivalent of a major hurricane) before making landfall on Monday night or Tuesday, local time.
"It is becoming evident that northeastern Madagascar will experience increasing winds and heavy rainfall starting later on Sunday night or Monday," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls said.
A direct landfall would put the northern province of Antsiranana at risk for life-threatening flooding rain and destructive wind gusts in excess of 160 km/h (100 mph). Residents of Sambava, Antalaha, Andapa and Ambalabe could face days to even weeks without power or other utilities as streets become littered with downed trees and branches. Flooding could wash out roadways across the region.
Poorly constructed signs and buildings may be destroyed. Major damage to well-built homes and businesses it not out of the question. Anyone venturing outside during the height of the cyclone would face bodily harm or death due to flying debris.
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A direct strike on northeastern Madagascar would also lead to a life-threatening storm surge near and to the south of where Enawo makes landfall. Water funneling into Helodrano Antongila Bay could especially put lives and property in danger in Maroantsetra.
After landfall, Enawo may continue southward across Madagascar through Thursday.
"Heavy rain and damaging winds will likely continue across northeastern Madagascar through at least Tuesday before the focus of the rain shifts southward around midweek," Nicholls said.
Enawo is expected to weaken as it tracks to the south during the middle of the week. This will mean that the threat for damaging wind will lessen for for central and southern Madagascar.
However, the risk of flooding would remain. Rainfall of 200-400 mm (8-16 inches) threatens to cause severe flooding and mudslides from northeastern Madagascar to the Ankaratra Mountains. The provinces of Toamasina and Fianarantsoa will see the greatest flooding risk as Enawo tracks southward.