Hurricane Warnings Issued: Extremely Dangerous Matthew Accelerating Toward Jamaica, Haiti

October 1,2016
Hurricane Matthew is now moving north-northwestward as a strong and extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane.
The storm poses a very dangerous threat to Jamaica, parts of Hispañola, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas early next week. Its potential U.S. impact later next week still remains unclear. Impacts are possible in Florida during the middle of next week.
Major Hurricane Matthew strengthened to a rare Category 5 late Friday evening. Matthew is the first Category 5 hurricane since Hurricane Felix in 2007.
Hurricane Matthew became the fifth hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season early Thursday afternoon.
According to Colorado State University tropical scientist Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Matthew became the lowest latitude Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic on record (beating the old record set by Ivan in 2004).
(MORE: At Least 1 Dead in Colombia As Deadly Matthew Heads Towards Jamaica, Cuba)
Matthew was located around 340 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti as of late Saturday Evening.

Current Storm Status

(MORE: Hurricane Central)
A hurricane warning has been issued for Jamaica and coastal areas of Haiti. Winds of 75 mph or greater are likely with torential rainfall occuring on Monday, and tropical storm force winds may begin late Sunday. Preparations in these areas need to be completed as soon as possible.
A hurricane watch has been issued for Haiti's northern coast and for the eastern half of Cuba. Winds of 75 mph or greater are possible in these areas by Monday night or Tuesday morning, and preparations may become difficult by early Monday.

Current Watches/Warnings

Impacts to land will begin to escalate again on Sunday as rainbands and higher surf reach Hispañola and Jamaica.
Here are the current winds:

Current Wind Speed and Gusts

Trips through the Caribbean are strongly ill-advised.

The 'Caribbean Right Turn'

Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next day or so. Matthew has gone through an "eyewall replacement cycle," which occurs when strong bands of wind and rain replace the eyewall of a hurricane. This is common in extremely powerful hurricanes of this stature.
Some moderate shear continues to exist surrounding Matthew, and this may have some effect on the hurricane. Shear may, however, be combated by warmer ocean temperatures as Matthew moves northward, which would slow any weakening.
(MORE: Just Because It's Fall Doesn't Mean We Shouldn't Pay Attention to the Tropics)
Uncertainty is still considerable on the critical details of this system.
Matthew continues to find its new direction toward the north. For Haiti and Jamaica, exactly what direction Matthew takes will have an enormous impact on the exact rainfall and winds that each location will receive.

Projected Path and Intensity

The critical details regarding exactly of what Matthew's intensity will be are still in large question for Jamaica, Hispañola, and eastern or central Cuba. Regardless of category, Matthew is anticipated to be a very dangerous and potentially deadly hurricane for those locations.
Phases of rapid intensification like the one experienced by Matthew on Thursday and Friday only hamper efforts to gain a better handle on the forecast, but the forecast is becoming more clear.
(MORE: Facts/Myths About the Hurricane Cones of Uncertainty)
Impacts could begin in Jamaica and Hispañola (particularly Haiti) as soon as Sunday night, and in eastern Cuba as soon as Monday.
Rainfall amounts in Haiti, Jamaica, and parts of eastern Cuba could get near 15 to 20 inches. Isolated amounts of up to 40 inches in the mountainous regions of Haiti are possible, and life threatening flash floods and mudslides may be a result. In Haiti in particular, heavy rainfall could be catastrophic.

Forecast Rainfall

Rainfall continues in Aruba, Bonaire, northern Colombia, Curaçao, and northern Venezuela. Additional rainfall totals could climb as high as 6 inches with widespread amounts 2 to 4 inches likely.
As Matthew comes northward, both waves and storm surge will increase on the southward facing shores of Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba. On the current forecast track, water levels will likely fall into the following ranges as indicated as amounts above normal tide levels:

• Haiti: 6 to 9 feet
• Jamaica: 3 to 5 feet
• Southern coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz: 7 to 11 feet

Waves will overtop the inundation levels forecast above. This storm surge will limit rainfall runoff in some places, which will enhance flooding especially in coastal locations that are vulnerable to flooding.
Beyond that, Matthew is likely to begin impacting parts of the central and southern Bahamas, or even the Florida East Coast by Tuesday and Wednesday.
(FLASHBACK: Hurricane Joaquin 2015)

U.S. Threat?

Beyond that, it is still too soon to determine which parts of the U.S. may be in danger next week, however there may be some impacts to south Florida by mid-week. There is a large amount of uncertainty going into next week.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts For the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted)
For now, ensemble forecast guidance has lessened the threat of a Florida track, but we cannot rule out an East Coast threat later next week.
Even if Matthew stays well to the east of Florida and the East Coast, a threat of dangerous swells, coastal flooding, and beach erosion is likely to be in play.
Dr. Klotzbach noted 60 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. However, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast.

Typical October named storm origin locations and tracks.

For now, all interests in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, Bahamas and U.S. East Coast including Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Matthew. Preparations in Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas should be underway. 
Check back with us frequently at weather.com for any important forecast updates.

Storm Reports

George F.L. Charles Airport on St. Lucia picked up 9.21 inches of rain Wednesday. On the south side of the island, Hewanorra Int'l Airport picked up 13.19 inches of rain in just 12 hours from 8 p.m. Wednesday through 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Antigua Met Service.

A wind gust to 89 mph was reported in St. Pierre, Martinique, Wednesday evening. Some stations are elevated at 50 to 100 feet. Sustained winds of 39 mph were reported on the island of Barbados.

Now is a good time to make sure you're prepared before the storm. Are you #HurricaneStrong?
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